Peak Internal Combustion Engine Sales Behind Us

The government better step it up a notch and start improving the electrical grid or we will have a lot of useless cars on the road

 

I'm not arguing that and frankly I'm happy they're here but they've been here pretty constantly and pretty steadily since 1840.

My issue with him has nothing to do with the propulsion method. It has to do with car manufacturers. A car that produces hydrocarbon that we recognize must have an OBD2 port on it. That offers me the ability to do diagnostics and access software. If I can't access the software I can find somebody outside of the manufacturer that can.

With an electric car you don't have to have that so you don't really own it it's not yours unless you rip out all of their software and which would probably include quite a few components.

I remember having to go to the dealership to do computer work on a pickup truck and it cost $4,000. If some computer glitch causes the car to not run and the dealership wants to charge you $20,000 for it guess what you're paying. Or you can junk the car and buy some old '70s car that doesn't require all that nonsense.

 

Contracts for building charge points would be by competitive bid, as are contracts for other construction.

 

Electricity delivered to houses by a vast network of wires was once thought to be a STUPENDOUS joke.

I'm not sure what your point is here. There is more demand for EVs than can be delivered. And, auto manufacturers are designing cars and building factories to meet that demand.

 

It's known already that our energy policy has gigantic holes in it.

EV demand is only one issue - not even rated as the largest.

 

Do you have ANY evidence of that?

New tech is always expensive at the outset. Companies are making gigantic investments, and they need a return.

The same happened with personal computers. At the outset, the whole idea was considered a total joke - way to expensive for what they could do.

 

We'll have more Texas disasters, brownouts, vulnerabilities to foreign attack, more susceptibility to Carrington type events, growing demand (EV plus the demand growth we already experience), etc., etc.

I'd be interested in any professional analysis of what problems are most significant.

 

The point is that your claim that the move towards EV's is "Overwhelming" is not true .. Sure .. this is the future .. all makers working on it .. but the transition is not happening at near the rate it needs to be . and the clock is ticking.

Further .. there is no clear path yet of how we achieve something resembling a non ICE future by 2050 .. a little over 25 years .. but we don't have 25 years .. and cars are not the only issue .. 15% of emissions .. much of which will be replaced by emissions generating the power .. so the overall impact will be less.. optimistically 10% .. and mainly in first world nations.

So even if the dream scenario came to pass the difference to CO2 emissions is small to the global equation - less than the growth in CO2 overall .. so you have made a small dent in the annual growth .. of CO2 .. and guess what .. we will not even be close by 2050 .. to being completely off ICE .. we are not there technologically which is problem number 1 ... but think we are close ... give it 5 years to be able to produce EV vehicle that is practical at a reasonable cost .. at which point . the infrastructure needs to be ready .. highly doubtful.. thats a 10 year plan at least .. but lets go down the perfect world road ... 5 years and we are there.

At this point EV saturation will account for "optimistically" 4% .. and the doubling from 2% is causing severe price problems.

Its 2028 --- over the next 5 years going to double the rate get to 8% .. its 2033 .. we are at 8% .. and no one can afford these things - massive subsidies -- but it takes 5 years from the planning stage to production for a new mine .. and sorry .. we behind the 8 ball .. in the mean time the increase in power demand is causing severe problems to power ... which will have to come from either fossile fuel .. gas being the most efficient .. or Nuclear

Obviously .. Nuclear being the only option .. ummm if we are gong to be needing power by 2033 .. be better have started the planning yesterday .. as it is a decade from the planing to the power .. but nothing is in the works .. so no worries .. the power fairy is going to come from above .. magic will intervene .. somehow

We now have 7 years to 2040 .. and we are at 8% .. but we need to be to 50% by 2040 .. will take 10 years of folks to do buy/have ICU cars to get rid of them .. can can't even think of puting that moratorium in place untill we hit 10% .. realistically its more like 70% but we are gong with the dreamland scenario ..


We are not going to go from 8% to 16% over the next 5 years .. never mind getting from 8% to 50% in 7 years. simply because we will have hit the supply wall - never mind ramping up that much production ..

and here the story ends .. as we have run out of time ... and nowhere near where we need to be .. which at the end of the day would only put a small dent in the annual increase in CO2 ... and frankly .. lipstick on a pig.

 

Well the fact that we need 15% more energy than we produce suggest there's a huge issue I don't see electric cars as a future they probably will always exist as they have for a number of years but it will be probably only after we harness a fusion reactor that it will be real.

 

Well the fact that we need 15% more energy than we produce suggest there's a huge issue I don't see electric cars as a future they probably will always exist as they have for a number of years but it will be probably only after we harness a fusion reactor that it will be real.

 

EV demand is driven by people who buy new cars.

Estimates put about 91% of American households have access to a car and there are only 14 million new cars sold in 2021.

If car manufacturers stop making fuel burning cars for battery operated cars those sales might drop the electric car buyer is a niche market. And they're having trouble meeting demand when it's just 2% of cars being sold.

This whole thing has a very long way to go.

If all I can get is a used car that runs on petroleum that's what I'm going to get. I already buy used cars I'm not buying new garbage I'll wait till the suckers that buy new garbage find out what works.

I know precisely which car is not to buy used it doesn't take that much thought to figure it out.

 

Unfortunately, Lithium EV car sales and quantities will never reach the capacity of ICE vehicles.

Two things could happen. Hydrogen vehicle technology will develop and take off, thus allowing a continuation of where ICE vehicles left off. A vehicle technology that makes it convenient will appeal to the masses.

Or.. over the decades, more people will live closer to work, local shops will steadily reappear, and the need for an inconvenient Lithium vehicle reduces, hence why Lithium vehicle sales will never match previous ICE volumes.

 

Yes, a procedure corrupted all too often.

 

Public info on their own website.
https://www.lucidmotors.com

They lay out their builds, and how much which is essentially all driven by capacity.

 

Computers in cars have been around for decades.

 

Yeah but on a car that runs on gasoline I can access it via the OBD2 port. If I don't have a j34 tool I can find someone that does that can reprogram it I'm not forced to go to the factory like you are with the car that you don't have access to like electric cars.

They don't have to have an OBD2 port so you don't have any access to the software at all meaning if they want to program your car to break down so they can drag you in there and say in order to make it run you need to pay us $20,000 they can do that. And you are entirely at their Mercy that's the whole point behind electric cars that and removing the used car market.

 

The power source is ancillary. Electric vehicles are far easier to maintain. An ice has numerous moving parts, requires special technology for the timing, emits toxins, etc.

Your anecdotal scenario is not going to change the inevitable.

 

That's exactly what EV makers want you to believe.

 

How many miles does an ev go before it needs an oil change or a tune up.

 

No it isn't. You have no access to the software in an electric car you are required by federal law to be able to access the software in a gas-powered car.

well yeah there's no maintenance. Something goes wrong it just catches on fire possibly burns down your house you have to buy a new one if you live through it. that's the point

There's no way you're going to come against me a car that I can't maintain is superior than one that I can.

Yet despite the existence of electric cars for 60 years prior to the adoption of the internal combustion engine driven car that's what we've used for the last 120 years it's almost like it's more technologically advanced and it's only people that want to go backward that are gung ho about electric cars.

right the inevitable is we will probably continue using traditional fuel powered cars for the foreseeable future.

Electric cars for some people seem to be more of a religious thing and I've been thinking that's the case with you.

 

Well he doesn't understand just because you're not able to maintain them doesn't mean they don't need maintenance.

And when they catch on fire in the total of the car manufacturer is just going to say **** you. But more.

 

A machine you can maintain has fewer breakdowns.

An electric car doesn't have any maintenance when it breaks down you're just screwed. You can't do anything about it you have to take it to the dealership and maybe wait months before someone can fix it maybe it's just time for a new car and that's the whole point of them to make the car a disposable commodity like a cell phone.

You can deny that that's all you want it is reality I've worked in the industry for 20 years I know better than you

 

It may not need an oil change but it's got everything else in it that a traditional car has except for you can't work on it. But thank God you won't be doing those oil changes and that's such a cumbersome task on owning a car I don't know how I've been able to do it for the 25 years I've owned cars.

 

Well written! The problem I experience with batteries is loss of life span at sub zero weather! Where it/they/battery would last an entire project in 50ish degree will generally take three fully charged to do at 20 degree and more would be needed an sub zero!

With that said, I doubt here where I live EV's will ever dominate "In my life time" for the simple fact that it's to cold and is cold better that seven months of the year. In fact it was only 37 degrees here this morning and the forecast for tomorrow is the same.. The same will reign true for many area's in the U.S. too!

Cold is a battery killer and that's a fact.. If your cars battery is weak, a 5 degree night will put you at buying and changing it out in the morning! I have changed dozens because of failure caused by cold..

 

The point of electric cars is not longevity this disposability.