German ex-chancellor Schroeder says Russia wants negotiated solution to Ukraine war

German ex-chancellor Schroeder says Russia wants negotiated solution to Ukraine war.

Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...s-negotiated-solution-ukraine-war-2022-08-03/

From the story at the link:
"The good news is that the Kremlin wants a negotiated solution," Schroeder told Stern weekly and broadcasters RTL/ntv, adding he had met Putin in Moscow last week.
"A first success is the grain deal, perhaps that can be slowly expanded to a ceasefire," he said.

This would be completely unimportant and insignificant speculation, except for one thing -- among all present and past national leaders in Europe, no one has a better, long-run relationship with Vladimir Putin than former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who was "Kanzler" there from 1998 to 2005.

It had been thought for time that French President Macron, or perhaps former German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, might be able to function as an 'intermediary' with Russia, but nothing positive has developed.

My opinion (required to open a thread in 'Current Event') is that if ANYBODY has a real possibility of being able to broker an end to hostilities between Ukraine and Russia, it is Gerhard Schroeder. If Putin is just sending up 'trial-balloons' with no intention of serious negotiations in the near future, then this whole miserable, dangerous war will go on indefinitely.

 

I think it would be to Russia's advantage to negotiate, since now they control the Donbas area, yet are still taking on heavy casualties.

 

It’s easy to say that Putin wants a negotiated solution. Everyone wants that.

It’s the content of the discussion that’s important, and I’m quite sure Putin expects to keep and annex the Ukrainian territory he has already invaded. At the very least.

So not really a peace offering. More of a demand for surrender.

 

As an aside, at this moment, it is probably not lost on Putin that his staunch, formidable ally, China, and its leader, Xi Jinping, has been made to look lik helpless, impotent fools in the aftermath of Nancy Pelosi's OFFICAL STATE VISIT to Taiwan, in spite of all of China's ominous threats!

In Chinese parlance, Xi Jinping has lost a tremendous amount of "face", and it is possible now that Putin realizes that he'd better take what he can get and END this adventure in Ukraine. Evidently, having China supporting you doesn't mean nearly so much as many people may have thought that it does....

 

I agree completely. Putin has always wanted a diplomatic solution to the problem, and the Minsk agreement shows that.

It is NATO that has wanted war from the start. NATO is the belligerent party. Russia has held the moral high ground there for years.

 

No - I’m quite sure NATO wants a negotiated solution as well.
In fact, Putin doesn’t need to negotiate at all. He could end hostilities unilaterally by withdrawing from Ukraine.
The fact that he is said to want a negotiated solution means he DOESN’T want to withdraw. He wants to retain at least some of the Ukrainian territory he invaded. He wants to negotiate Ukraine’s surrender.

 

As long as Vlad the Invader is running that country Russia's word isn't good for squat.

However, we are at a point in this war where I would expect Putin to start floating trial balloons for a negotiated statement, and why is that?


(Russian occupied territory shaded in brown)

Because Russian forces control the territory that Putin has really wanted from Day 1 of his latest exercise in revanchist aggression, and that's the land corridor from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula and the strategic port of Sevastopol, where the Black Sea Fleet is based.

Another critical piece of territory the Russians currently occupy is the territory around and along the North Crimean Canal, which is a critical source of fresh water to the Crimean Peninsula.:



I'm sure Putin would be happy to annex the territory Russian forces currently occupy, so don't be surprised by any peace overtures from the Kremlin.

Of course, the Ukrainians have expressed no willingness to cede this territory to Russia and they shouldn't, so be prepared for many more years of bloody attrition and guerrilla warfare. No doubt, the Ukrainians are aware of how the Soviets fared in Afghanistan and they've seen how lousy the Russian military and its joke-assed excuse for logisitics have performed in this conflict. Furthermore, Putin will probably be dead in a couple of years so there's no need for them to rush into negotiations at this point.

 

Putin will grab all he can in any deal with Kiev, but he'll probably settle for all of Ukraine, generally east of the Dnieper and Sula Rivers, which would encompass Donetsk, Luhansk, and, more of that northern area around Kharkov. I wanted to show a good map of the Ukrainian rivers, but I couldn't find a good one with English names.

 

I know the rivers you're talking about, and I'm pretty confident Putin aimed to seize everything east of the Dnieper when the war began, but that was asking way too much of his second-rate military and its laughingstock logistics...

 

Putin is not a trustworthy interlocutor.

He lied to the world when he claimed he would not invade Ukraine.

If he wants to negotiate today, it is because he feels that the war cannot be won.

Considering that he only understands the use of force, it is premature to engage in talks with him.

I would wait to see if Ukraine can take back Kherson and even more, knowing that arms deliveries have a devastating effect on the Russian enemy.

 

Nearly all of Europe is in dire need of some kind of arrangement so that they can get energy supplies from Russia. It stinks, but the 'greenies' in Europe brought this dependency on themselves... and now everyone suffers.

 

100% agree, although I had to laugh at "not a trustworthy interlocutor" He's a war criminal, is what he is...

ZERO change Zelensky will personally sit down in a room with this bastard, although he might allow some third party to negotiate on their behalf in some way.... which will obviously be ineffective.....

 

We need to counter-threaten Russia with something that would be far more useful than any more of these sanctions. Russia has significant vulnerabilities and I'm surprised we haven't taken opportunities to point these out to Putin....

 

No.

You don't follow the news.

The whole of Europe is turning to other sources of supply, notably Norway, Canada and the US.

Russia has become a pariah with whom we no longer do business.

 

I agree in principle, but where are the terminals needed to unload shipments of LNG? Where are the immense, necessary storage facilities? Do you have any friends in Northern Germany? I do....

 

Such as?

 

And cold weather will be arriving in another four months.

 

LOL. Yeah, Russia wants a negotiated solution where they get everything they wanted.

 

That may be true, but Schroeder will not allow Russia to keep the territory it has already seized and possibly not allow Russia to have the Crimea region as well. This would be in exchange for any "penance" Ukraine may want for Russia that started the war. Furthermore, Ukraine has already promised not to join NATO although this could be codified into the peace treaty. But for that to happen, Ukraine will want assurances not be invaded again and protected against future Russian aggression.

For me, I would provide the following,

Every senior officer in Russia is to commit seppuku publicly in front of their soldiers. Second, Putin must resign from office. Third, Russia must give up all illegally seized territory in Ukraine. All. Ukraine will join the EU but not NATO. Ukraine will have guaranteed protection by Germany, Poland, and France if Russia decides to invade for any reason. Likewise, Ukraine will not invade Russia for any reason. And this is me being kind to Russia.

 

China's support for Putler was lackluster at best....they won't shed a drop of blood for Russias funeral.

Yeah...Chinos looked like chumps when Pelosi visited Taiwan.

 

That all sounds great....but we're dealing with realpolitik....Russia could care less about any of those points you mentioned.

 

Gerhard Schröder is a traitor and has been bought by 30 silver rubles.

Germany can use Dutch, Belgian and LNG terminals from other European countries, the European natural gas grid is highly integrated. Germany has immense storage facilities and they are being filled at a normal rate.



(dotted line is the average, the blue line is the current level)

The German natural gas storages have a capacity of 23 billion cubic meters.

 

Uh-huh... then why are the Germans in such a panic about the approach of winter? Why have they been warning about economic catastrophe and the virtual shutdown of German industry? Why is Germany so upset about Russia dragging its feet over the gas-transmission turbine that seems to be stuck 'in transit'...?

No one doubts that facilities exist in Northern Europe to handle LNG and store it -- the question is, is it enough? The impression one gets from German media, and from statements made by the Scholz government is that it is not nearly enough! The situation for the immediate future is so dire that Germany is opening up coal operations again... and the "Greens" have been having apoplectic fits over it....

 

The Germans are not in a panic at all, none that I have talked to in Munich or in Leipzig right now. Schroeder has had accomplishments with peace negotiations. Second, Russia tried this "peace deal" before with Italy. I think Russia will more than likely put the same offer as they did with Italy, and soundly rejected by the EU and Ukraine. Schoeder will not have that either and I think Russia knows that.

On the other hand, Russia may be looking to slow things down because it takes time to train new recruits property for combat, like 6 months or so. Russia has lost some 15000 soldiers in this conflict and double that number with injured. That is a huge problem for Russia and why Ukraine is starting to retake the territory.

 

True, but the leverage I would be using is NATO will not get involved directly. And Russia definitely does not want that.

Putin understands one thing and one thing only. He is an old Communist comrade. That one thing is military strength. He knows, the way his army in Ukraine is, if NATO gets involved, they won't have a chance as long as it stays in Ukraine.