gfm7175's 2022 Midterm Predictions

The polls show her ahead, slightly, 2 points which is within the probability of error.

so, if she loses, what evidence do you base your conclusion as 'red flag for fraud' let alone a 'major red flag' ?

I would like from you one of two things:

1. solid evidence for that conclusion.

2. If you can't provide solid evidence for that conclusion, then I expect an apology to democrats.

 

Can't wait to read the comedy gold coming from the OP as to why tonight is gonna end as a red drip rather than the tsunami the OP anticipated. LOL

 

The Reps will turn blue holding their breath, while the Dems will see red watching it all slip away.

 

It looks like the "joke," is going to be on you.
Just for a refresher, you thought the greatest likelihood, using your vaulted RCP, would be the GOP ending up with 53 to 54 Senate seats.

Here was my quote, which you felt you could just dismiss, knowing that I'd consulted 538:

DEFinning said: ↑
This makes the 3 possibilities:
1)Rs win both, giving them a 51 - 49 majority;
2) each Party takes one of those two, keeping Dems in charge of an evenly-split Senate; or
3)Dems have the good fortune to pull out both contests, and actually add to their own majority, 51- 49.

All of those scenarios, seem very plausible.
<End>

Granted, the fat lady has yet to sing, but what I'd predicted, seems far more likely, at this point, than what had been your own expectation.

The interesting part, though, will be to see whether you are capable of learning from your mistakes or, if two years from now, you will continue to feel justified in dismissing my opinion, and still say that 538 is a joke, especially compared to the wonderful RCP.

 

This person has already decided that fraud is the reason why he/she will be wrong. Of course that horseshit, but that is what this OP will claim. Watch.

 

~ So far as I watch the returns the Red Wave is more like a Pink Fizzle ... '''

~ And we will all watch the USA fall apart ...

 

Yep.
How big do you like your bucket?

 

Quite a number of races remain to be called, and the sore losers are already sniveling and attacking democracy as expected, but it was a pretty good midterm for Democrats.
The losers whined and kvetched about 2020, blowing gas relentlessly, but failing to contrive any credible evidence that could withstand judicial scrutiny.

In the 22 midterm elections from 1934-2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats.

If Democrats lose fewer than 28 House seats and fewer than 4 Senate seats in 2022 (very likely) they will have beaten the historical average.

In the last midterm, in 2018, Democrats gained 41 House seats, and Republicans gained 2 Senate seats.

The big winner nationally is Ron DeSantis, promoting himself as the GOP's new and improved authoritarian, the one without the pantload who again cost the GOP a number of victories by hyping weak candidates based upon their eagerness to pucker.

Acknowledging the exception:

Trump Humiliates J.D. Vance 'Kissing my Ass' at Ohio Rally
​

 

I've already told you why 538 is a joke.

 

Isn't that the truth.
Still so many election deniers if things don't go their way.

I suppose we will have to deal with that in 2024 as well.
Imagine just how incompentent those Red states are that have R legislatures and claim fraud in their own states where the run the elections. Why would people continue to vote for incompetence, if it were really true that fraud is why some people lose.

 

Looks like most predictions, including my own, missed the mark due to the evaporating "red wave".

 

So, a landslide is predicted?

 

So, a red landslide is coming then?
So, what pendulums are favoring this tidal wave?

 

One could look to 2009-2016 for evidence. Virtually nothing.

 

I think more and more people are growing tired of the lies that MAGA folks only lose because of fraud, and then never offer any proof of fraud that could chage any results.

So, lets see how this red landslide plays out. Or if more people say enough with your conspiracy theories of frauded elections.

 

LOL. 70 and 80 yr old life time republicans, are not RINO in MAGA land.

I'd offer up to say, MAGA land are the RINOs

 

A grid-lock means different branches of government attempt to sabotage each other. It might include shutting down the government and other measures to withhold money from the executive branch. As has been mentioned earlier in the thread, usually a grid lock is good for economy.

 

I guess that means, to quote some in this thread, too many brian dead Americans voted and decided MAGA is not for the country.

 

Did you forget that if your predictions are correct, fraud is the only reason that your predictions would be true?

They build in excuses for incompetence before the election even starts. Another 2 yrs of more conspiracy theory lies about frauded elections. But, to quote others in the tread, brain dead Americans aren't buying the MAGA lies.

 

Pretty quiet in this thread this morning.
Where's all the MAGA supporters?

 

EDIT.
70 and 80 yr old life time republicans, are RINO in MAGA land.

 

Here is my morning follow up to my midterm predictions:

The validity of the midterms is TBD, but for purposes of this response the midterms will largely be assumed to be valid.

I already highly question the results in Arizona, regardless of whoever ends up in power there, due to the Maricopa County election day shenanigans with their machines.

Others areas of the nation are TBD, but I have a feeling that something isn't right, especially after seeing what happened in 2020, after seeing a "red wave" sweep over Florida, in 2020 and now much more-so in 2022, that somehow avoided the rest of the nation, and after seeing Democrats apparently bucking the decades long precedent of "the party in power with an unpopular/polarizing President loses big in the midterms)...

That all leaves me with a feeling that something isn't right about these midterms either, but time will tell if any evidence of anything nefarious pops up again like it did two years ago (beyond what has already popped up in Arizona and Pennsylvania).

This one turned out to be correct.

At this point it seems to not be as close of a race as I thought it to be.

Still possible, as the votes left to be counted will favor Masters.

This one appears to be headed towards a December run off.

This one I was correct, but I thought Bolduc would've been a bit closer.

This one I was correct.

Seemingly correct.

This one I was wrong, maybe even regardless of the "funny business".

He might hold on. It might've legitimately been closer than I expected. Milwaukee might be trying to manufacture enough votes to push Barnes over the edge... We'll see.

I was correct here.

I was correct here.

TBD, although a 52-48 finish would be less comfortable than I figured it would be.

This turned out to be nowhere near as well as I had expected. Final declarations of winners will take some time yet.

D's will now hush up about their election denial due to D's apparently finding a way to buck decades long midterm precedent.

Correct.

Incorrect.

Incorrect.

Correct.

Seemingly correct.

Absolutely correct.

Apparently I dreamed big and I crashed hard. Oh well. Maybe I'll start embracing collapsitarianism. BURN M-er F-er, BURN!

• YAY!!!!!! WE HAVE SAVED OUR DEMOCRACY!!!!! HIP HIP HOORAY!!!!!!!!!
• Let's keep mutilating our children's genitals!! HIP HIP HOORAY!!!
• Let's keep supporting the very people's policies who are causing us economic pain!! HIP HIP HOORAY!!!!
• Let's tear down our massive oil powered economy and replace it with a teeny tiny wind/solar powered one!! HIP HIP HOORAY!!!!!
• Let's keep teaching racism in schools!! HIP HIP HOORAY!!!
• Let's weaponize government agencies against all dissidents!! HIP HIP HOORAY!!!!

Remaining votes will favor her, so she should win.

Correct.

Largely correct. She held on, but it was closer than people thought it would be.

It seems that I will be incorrect here. Democrats who were going to vote Independent "came home" at the last second and supported Kotek. We'll see.


Overall, not nearly what I thought would happen given what the mood seemed to be and given decades of midterm precedent. Hmmmmmmm... it leaves one left wondering...

Yes, I always show up the next day, no matter what the results are. I did in 2020, I did today, and I will again in 2024 if I'm still alive.

 

I'm right here.

 

Yup. Mine DEFINITELY missed the mark.

 

No I haven't. Stop lying.

The only clear evidence of potential fraud that I've seen so far, besides the issues noted in my OP in Pennsylvania, which might not have even mattered anyway, are the issues in Arizona in Maricopa County, of which Republicans might end up winning those elections anyway. We'll see if more information comes out in the near future. As as right now, I don't really have any claims of potential fraud specific to these races besides those two, and like I said, one probably wouldn't've made a difference and the other might still be won by R's anyway.