gfm7175's 2022 Midterm Predictions

Here are my predictions, assuming at least semi-valid elections are held...

SENATE:
Colorado -- D's will win, and win big. The R candidate sucks balls.

Washington -- This will be a MUCH closer race than people think. R's do have a legitimate shot at winning here. I think that D's will eke it out (whether fraudulently or legitimately).

Arizona -- Masters will barely eke this one out on the coattails of Lake.

Georgia -- I think that Walker barely wins, either in November or in a December run off.

New Hampshire -- I think that D's will win this one, but don't completely write R's off.

North Carolina -- R's will win. R's "losing" this race would be a huge red flag for fraud.

Nevada -- R's will win (and Hispanics will play a part in that).

Pennsylvania -- Given a semi-legitimate election, I think that Oz will barely eke this one out. The "funny business" from D's in PA regarding undated ballots is something to keep an eye on here.

Wisconsin -- Ron Johnson will comfortably win. R's "losing" this race would be a huge red flag for fraud.

Ohio -- R's will win and win big. Polls showing Vance either "barely down" or "barely ahead" are pure BS.

Florida -- R's will win.

I'm thinking either a 53-47 or a 52-48 win for R's... Given a semi-legitimate election, R's will take the Senate, no doubt, it's just a matter of how much they'll take it by.


HOUSE:
I won't go through individual races here (there are too many), but R's will take it, no doubt, it's just a matter of how much they'll take it by. My initial thoughts were that they could gain as little as 20 seats and as many as 35 seats. As of right now, I truly think that R's could potentially win even MORE than 35 seats... R's ending up with ~250+ seats when all is said and done is a very realistic outcome.

Look for D's to suddenly become the "election deniers" that they have chastised Republicans over during the past two years, conveniently forgetting about their own history of "election denial", beginning with 2000, continuing into 2004, starting up again in 2016, and then Stacey Abrams in 2018 who still hasn't conceded that race and probably won't concede this upcoming one either.


GOVERNOR:
I won't go through all individual races here, but I'll just note that R's will hold the majority of Governorships (at least 30 of them) and that several D's will be flipping over to R's.

Georgia -- R's will easily hold.

Nevada -- R's will flip it (again, look for Hispanics to make a difference).

Pennsylvania -- I think that D's will comfortably win this race due to the GOP completely and purposefully leaving Mastriano out to dry via refusing to fund him. The RNC/DNC club does NOT want a MAGA governor in PA in 2024, plain and simple, and they WILL support Shapiro in order to avoid that.

Wisconsin -- I think that Michels will win this race but by a smaller margin than Johnson wins his Senate race. Bye bye "Tyrant Tony" Evers! Good riddance!! I can't wait to have a sane governor and state attorney general again... hopefully even a sane secretary of state as well.

Arizona -- Kari Lake WILL win. If she "loses", then that's a major red flag for fraud.

Florida and Texas will both easily remain R. Any leftist willing to entertain either of these thoughts is completely off of their rocker.

New York -- Yes, ladies and gentlemen, NEW YORK is even in play for Republicans this cycle. IF Zeldin can gain enough of the "Giuliani vote" in certain parts of NYC, he will come out on top. If not, then Hochul will hold on. Fraud might also play a part in barely keeping Hochul in there. My official prediction is that Hochul barely holds on by the skin of her teeth, but this WILL be interesting...

Oregon -- I think that the Republican candidate will win this cycle, due to Democrats splitting their vote between the Democrat and the Independent.

 

Don’t forget to post an update after the election…

 

Remind me if I forget... I'd love to do a follow up on my predictions and I'll definitely be around.

 

Good list! I'll add some of my own.

SENATE:
Colorado -- Dem

Washington -- Dem

Arizona -- Dem

Georgia -- Rep

New Hampshire -- Dem

North Carolina -- Rep

Nevada -- Dem

Pennsylvania -- Dem

Wisconsin -- Rep

Ohio -- Rep.

Florida -- Rep

HOUSE:

Republicans win by less than 28 seats

 

Could take your predictions more seriously if you didn't spice it all up with election fraud BS.

 

Quite reasonable. A bit less "aggressive" than mine is.

 

Then ignore my "election fraud BS" and go from there.

 

I will wager real money that PA will once again be problematic given that they intend to count ballots without signatures or dates required by the law. Never let it be said democrats won't cheat to win.


I would say, here in KY, Paul will win. And the days of Andy are limited. (Current KY Gov).

Vance wins in OH. He rhetorically KOd Ryan on stage. It was epic.

I think NV swings back to R. I think Oregon goes R. I think AZ goes R. Masters obliterated his opponent in the debates.. Lake wins.

I look for a lot of Red on the boarder in TX. RI in the house race, goes R for the first time in like forever, etc.

Democrats. Y'all played a stupid game of brinksmanship, and like ms Truss in the UK, you're going to get sent down.

 

I’ve got +2 D in the House and Senate for the midterms or another cycle of rampant fraud allegations.

 

True, and I might be "wrong" on my Oz prediction because of that. That's why I noted to keep watch on it.

Agreed.

Bingo!

Agreed!

Right.

I'll toss a little bone to the Democrats and make note that the Oklahoma Governor race might go their way... and that, due to the ranked choice voting scam that Republicans can't seem to figure out for the life of them, the Alaska House seat might also go Democrat due to Republicans splitting their vote and due to the ranked choice voting scam.

 

I'm not sure what "+2 D in the House and Senate" means... Does that mean +2 seats in each? Does that mean D's will win a generic vote margin by 2 points for each? I don't get it.

I expect this to happen, but I think that D's will start claiming fraud once again, just as they've done for the past two decades now. They're just mad at Republicans re:2020 because it's the first time that Republicans didn't just sit on their laurels and have instead stood up and loudly voiced their opposition to being frauded out of a President.

Remember, the Democrat screams of fraud in 2016 ("Trump is illegitimate" "Trump colluded with Russia to meddle with our election system") eventually led to a Republican congressman being SHOT while at a congressional baseball game. SHOT.

 

As the writer in today's WSJ notes

The ‘Ranked Choice’ Scam
Alaskans know the truth about this confusing, coercive voting system.

....Would you prefer halibut or salmon or moose burgers, in what order, and based on what scheming odds? Believe it or not, that’s a real voting guide to Alaskans this election year. And it’s a warning to voters in Nevada and nine cities and counties across the U.S. being asked this election to adopt ranked-choice voting: Walk away. Better yet, sprint.

Take it from someone living through the hell that is Alaska’s election system. Two years ago, left-leaning outside groups quietly funded Alaska liberals (posing under the vanilla title Alaskans for Better Elections) backing a ballot initiative to do away with the state’s perfectly good election system. It was replaced with a “top four” primary and a ranked-choice general election....

...But what if you don’t want a “backup” politician? That gets to the real problem with ranked-choice—it’s coercive. It forces voters to play its complex game or risk not being counted. Alaska is a Republican state, and two of the three candidates who advanced—Sarah Palin and Nick Begich Jr.—are Republicans. They split the vote in the first round of counting, giving Democrat Mary Peltola more votes than Ms. Palin. Mr. Begich was then eliminated. Half his voters went to Ms. Palin. Only about a quarter went to Ms. Peltola, but it was enough to push her over 50% of those who ranked either her or Ms. Palin.

Yet notice the numbers don’t add up. About 20% of Mr. Begich’s supporters didn’t put a second choice—either in confusion or protest. (A full 35% of Palin voters didn’t.) Those voters didn’t want Ms. Peltola—they wouldn’t mark her name—but for refusing to play the game, their punishment was to be stuck with her anyway. Thus does a state that Donald Trump won by 10 points, and in which 60% of the voters chose first a Republican, end up with a Democratic representative. Consensus? Hardly. The word is “rigged.”..
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ra...ls-ballot-11666906215?mod=opinion_featst_pos2

 

+2 seats D in House and Senate. D’s retain control. Hence the fraud allegations.

 

Pennsylvania

Philadelphia is a cesspool of corruption and fraud - there simply is no institutional infrastructure there that can be trusted to run honest elections.

The only question is, will the fraud out of Philadelphia be enough to overcome the rest of the state?? It will be tight.

Wasn't there a court ruling against the undated ballots??

Georgia

The fraud that took place in Georgia in 2020 will be hard to repeat. Raffensberger is a scumbag, and can't be trusted. Kemp is a sleaze as well, but there are enough good Republicans and government officers in place that it will be difficult to get away with cheating in the same ways they did last time.

Still, I think Warnock will win.

- In Wisconsin I think Johnson will win, even with Milwaukee and Madison padding democratic numbers.

There is always cheating in Wisconsin, I'd say it gives about a 1% advantage to the Dems.

Where I live, we once had more people cast ballots than we had population, lol... but it was Democrats cheating against Democrats, so nothing was ever done.

That said, it's not as bad as it used to be - although I think the 2020 Presidential Election was an outlier and much more than 1%.

Arizona

I really like Blake Masters. Would love to see him become President.

Kelly is a total piece if s***, but I think he will win.

Kari Lake should win the Gov.

 

I don't think their fraud will be able to overcome Oz, since Oz will also do fairly well in the Philly and Pitt suburbs... but I'm afraid Mastriano is in trouble due to the GOP completely abandoning him and refusing to fund him because the Uniparty (RNC/DNC) doesn't want him to be Governor during the 2024 cycle so that they can fraud PA away to the Democrats again like they did in 2020.

Yes, but Dems are ignoring it, per usual. Nobody ever holds them accountable for anything, so they just do whatever the hell they want.

Agreed, except I actually think that Walker will pull it out.

A fellow Wisconsinite?? I always enjoy such run ins. I am confident that Johnson will win (and think Michels will win too, albeit by a smaller margin). The Madison area is getting ever increasingly liberal with their "college indoctrinated" population, and their population growth in general. I expect Dane County to vote roughly 75/25 for both Barnes and Evers.

I have a sneaky suspicion that both Johnson and Michels will slightly cut into the Milwaukee County margin though... nothing mind blowing, but even a couple percentage points or so makes a big difference. Johnson will perform stronger than Michels around the Milwaukee suburbs, and Michels will outperform Johnson in rural Wisconsin where the "Trump vote" is.

I expect Johnson to run around 3-4 points higher than Michels, due to his higher support in the Milwaukee suburbs, so if Johnson wins by about 5 or 6, I expect Michels to win by about 2 or 3.

Yes, there's always cheating in Madison and Milwaukee... I'd say at least a 1% advantage to D's, if not approaching a 1.5% or a 2% advantage... 2020 was an outlier and was probably closer to 5%. When we get Evers ousted and get Michels in as Governor, maybe we can get some election integrity reform done here, depending on how much the dipshit Robin Vos allows. I'd write in Adam Steen if I lived in that area of the State.

Kari Lake will win the Governor, no question. Hobbs is suuuuuuuch a bad candidate it isn't even funny, and Kari is suuuuuch a good candidate.

The Blake Masters race will be close. The Independent candidate running in that race recently dropped out and endorsed Masters, so that (along with his current upward momentum) should barely boost him over the finish line.

 

Via Steve Deace, a notoriously pessimistic rw host/pundit/pollster. He also predicts the GOP will pick up 42 House seats. Color me uber skeptical re: Colorado & Washington state.

Senate:


Governor:

 

Cheating will occur. Always has, always will. The only question is how much cheating is needed to win vs how much cheating can be hidden (or covered up).

I'm expecting more of the usual: the election results to work out to another effective stalemate, a 50/50 split giving one side or the other a slim technical majority that isn't demonstrative of any 'mandate' or 'referendum' but rather just more 'We The People' dont collectively know what to do, and thus our 'representatives' will just do whatever they (and their biggest donors) want.

 

Yeah, I'm very skeptical of this... I don't think it'll be THAT much of a wipeout for R's, but maybe I'm missing something.

I'm currently thinking about 53 Senate seats (+- 1), 247 House seats (+- 5), and about 32 governorships (+- 2).

 

Who has the momentum going into the weekend usually comes out on top and clearly the Reps have it

 

230 to 205 Repubs win House
52 to 48 Repubs win Senate.

 

First note, I will join you in prefacing my predictions, with the caveat that they are based on elections not invalidated by interference; I will point out to you, as it has been the Republican party which has filled it's ranks, of members involved with elections, with people who were in favor of overturning the last election, anyone with a clue, would understand that the most worrisome source for interference with a free & fair election, are these new, Republican "ninjas."

Colorado-- Dems will obviously win. I don't know how much the Repub "sucks," as you say, but Walker & Oz, and Vance & Bibb, all prove that merely sucking, is not anything that mortally wounds Republican Senatorial campaigns, anymore. The reason then, which your utterly partisan review could not even bring itself to admit, that CO seat will remain a D, is because the incumbent, Michael Bennett, is a fine Senator, and a reasonable person. It is his quality, which insures this race, for the Dems. 538 gives him a 10 point advantage, in polling.
They also give the WA Democrat, a 6-point lead, so it would be hard to explain, if that seat changed hands.

OH, NC, and WI, all are trending, according to 538, to remain in Republican hands, by a 4-point margin. This lead is most clearly manifested in polls of the WI race (incumbent Johnson). It should also be noted that WI & OH are two states which have recently under projected Republican support. So WI seems safe for the Rs.

Though there had been a single poll saying that the NC Dem, Beasley, was tied with Bibb, that was an outlier. While she'd been keeping it close, until this last month, it seems that, for whatever reason, Bibb's support is on the upswing. I'd actually been surprised to see the Dem seeming to have a shot, since I hadn't thought that NC was as progressive as GA-- I had, in fact, correctly picked GA to go Blue, & NC to stay Red, in the Presidential election. I'll admit, when I heard about the one poll, I began to have some optimism of the Dems capturing that seat, but the poll numbers suggest this is unlikely. The one factor that could have had polls under representing Dem support, would have been having an unexpectedly large turnout of young voters. However, so far, in early voting, the reverse is true. Therefore, the smart money is on the Repub, Bibb.

The only one of those three, that might seem questionable, would be OH. Ryan had led Vance in the polling, from the start of July, until a third of the way through October. Even now, the combined poll ratings, are very close between the two, so that 538 seems to be projecting an extra boost, swinging Vance's way, at the very end, here. I had never been too optimistic, of Ryan's success-- though he is an Ohio Representative, and Ohio's other Senator, Sherrod Brown, is also a Democrat-- but I will go along with your Ohio projected winner, though I think it will be much tighter than what you call the "B.S." of close polls. I doubt your characterization, that Vance will win "big;" more likely, he will just "eek out" a victory-- the way you appear to prefer describing Democrat margins of victory.

Florida continues to get older, and more conservative, so is a slam dunk for Rubio. New Hampshire will send back it's Democratic Senator, without the serious threat, you predict. 538 gives her a 3 point advantage.

So that brings us to our final four. They are AZ, NV, GA, and PA. This is where the most uncertainty lies, where you come up with your scenario of Republican triumph, and where I most strongly disagree with you. Dem Senator Kelly has been in the lead, all the way, in the Arizona race. While Masters has closed the gap from 4 pts. to 2, there is no reason to expect another, and sudden, two point switch-- now that, would be suspicious. I predict the Dems holding on to Arizona.

Nevada is an interestingly tight race. Laxalt had steadily held a 2 pt. advantage, until just recently, when some poll(s) had Cortez Masto a little ahead. 538 still has Laxalt with less than a 1 point lead (0.6). For some reason, their graph predicts that both candidates lines will change direction, in these final days, to allow Laxalt, to edge out the Democrat, and so steal a state for the GOP. That would be all they needed, unless Dems won both of the remaining two contests. I have to change my earlier conceding (in another thread) of Nevada to Repubs, to place that race in the "too close to call" category.

Both GA & PA, 538 calls ties. While I will admit that Warnock does not have the greatest speaking personality (which is rather disappointing, for a preacher), yet looking at who is up against, I will have to disagree with your prediction of another state stolen for Repubs. All indications are that it will be close but, because of a third- party candidate, no one will get 50% of the vote, which will force a run off, after the outcomes are known, to all the other races, much the same as in 2020. And I expect the same result, with Warnock holding on, even if it may only be by the hair of his chinny- chin-chin.

That brings us to Pennsylvania, being the contest, essentially, for all the marbles, if Laxalt takes Nevada. I am hoping that Cortez Masto will be able to pull her chestnuts out the fire, so that Dems could then afford to lose PA, and remain in charge. But, as I said, NV seems too close to call, as also does PA.

This makes the 3 possibilities:
1)Rs win both, giving them a 51 - 49 majority;
2) each Party takes one of those two, keeping Dems in charge of an evenly-split Senate; or
3)Dems have the good fortune to pull out both contests, and actually add to their own majority, 51- 49.

All of those scenarios, seem very plausible.

 

~ We should ask Pootin who will win what . The media said he controls USA elections.

 

It will be 3 or better for the Dems.

I think the polls are being skewed by all the partisanship. Americans are not usually partisan.

 

The GOP will take both the House & the Senate. Only question is by how much.

 

I suggest there will be surprises in the GOP’s favor. Pollsters are not getting accurate responses, because of fear of reprisal.
I sense we are going to have a reformist government. Pelosi will be gone, and Mich McConnel is under fire, AND most importantly, Americans feel too many pendulums have swung too far left AND the economy is a wreck, the Chinese termites are getting into our world, and our whole system is frozen in regulatory hell.
Then we have a California governor say “I am going to cancel your cars. Deal with it.” And no one challenges it.
I do not believe America is that brain dead. Yet.