Is the Ukraine-Russia conflict really just a proxy war between the US and China?

I'll mark this down as another prediction.

 

Ditto.....go for it.

 

Been keeping track of your own failed predictions?

 

I do get them wrong occasionally, but I've got a pretty decent track record.

 

Doesn't mean they lied about the cash -- Ad Hom and Non Sequitur fallacy !? .. and 300 Billion is 7.5% of Revenue .. 5% of the Budget ... which is quite significant ... as is 2.5% .. cept in the funny money land of Blue Rainbows.

 

And I will back you on this one .. Durandal has terrible track record - often due to making absurd claims. and does not know what propaganda is .. claiming there is no propganda in Western Media -- Western Poplitical Pundits .. so very bad sources.

 

From what I've seen, your track record on both predictions and interpreting current events is pretty poor, at least where Russia and its war in Ukraine are concerned.

 

It mostly wasn't in the form of cash. It was guarantees on loans and some military equipment. The accountants gave the material cost at the figure the US paid for it new, it wasn't worth that much.

Transferring the equipment to Ukraine didn't actually drain money from the budget. The equipment was already paid for, much like Russia's reserve arsenal. But ors seems to have been better maintained. In giving Ukraine equipment that was due to be replaced anyway, we just saved the money that would be spent on scrapping the stuff.

It could even be argued that the equipment was fulfilling its mission - defeating a fascist state in Europe.

 

Dude .. if you think the number is different .. then by all means provide a different number -- one supported by something other than hot air though ..

"Transferring equipment didn't drain money from the Budget" ??? Who said it did ? What will cost the money is replacing that equipment - - given to the help the Facist State slaughter more of its own citizens .. and a few Russians as well . bout a 10 -1 casualty ratio in many battles.. being sent to the front a death sentence for the Azov side. Kind of Ironic we have a Jew over-seeing the mass Slaughter of the Azov Nazi .. but, regardless of the amount of money over which you wish to quibble without support .. It could be much better spent elsewhere .. and certainly our efforts better invested .. this war has cost us big time .. over and above the direct monitary costs.. our economic hegemony is getting the snot kicked out of it .. Did you not notice ??

 

Actually gave you real numbers. You didn't like them. You pulled your numbers out your a**. Or Fox news, which has the same credibility.

You did. You said the cost was x% of the budget.

The equipment is fulfilling its purpose: defending Europe from a fascist state. As to the casualty rate, where did you get that data? It seems you are swallowing Russian propaganda without chewing. The norm is for Russia to take more casualties. They ARE on the strategic offense after all, ascribing 10 Uke casualties to 1 Russian on any kind of consistent basis is laughable on its face.

To tell the truth, I hadn't noticed that the US economy shrinking. in fact it increased in 2022. On the other hand, analysts expect the Russian economy will stay flat at best, general consensus seems to be that it will shrink slightly.

 

.....yeah.....numbers......but the numbers are meaningless....here's some numbers, day, 497 of the 10 day special operation, so not bad for a nation facing overwhelming odds huh.
Here's another number, 155th Separate Marine Brigade has been decimated in combat 3 times now and following a 4th catastrophic operation it's effectively ceased to exist. I could go on.
This issue is not numbers, it's what you do with those numbers and how you move them around your board. Russia isn't very good at that. The Russian military and indeed its politics is founded on a system of deceptions and lies which is obvious reading some of the posts here. Sure they had numbers, they have big numbers....the trouble is they had f**k all ability to actually fight...its commanders have f**k all ability to command....its logistics units have f**k all ability to supply....I could go on.

Hence, here we are on day 497 of a 10 day special operation conducted by the largest country in the world with the 2nd largest army in the world against a country that according to the numbers is way way down the list.

How is it possible for Ukraine to win....well, it can be argued they've already won, but then again it depends on your bias so really you have to define winning. But think about it, on the basis that the 2nd largest army in the world is now finished as an effective fighting force and as a result of the invasion there has been NATO expansion that Putin didn't want....as a result of the invasion there is a re-unified Europe which Putin didn't want...as a result of the invasion there are now crippling long term sanctions applied to the Russian military industrial complex...as a result of the invasion Russia has now lost it's only main revenue stream as well as it's influence of Europe through the embargoes on oil and gas.....I mean we could go on. Strategically though, as a result of the invasion Ukraine will probably have fast track entry to the EU and potentially NATO....so i think it's pretty fair to assume that Russia has lost...and lost large.

 

Despite having a numerically smaller military, the quality of those forces is at least as significant. Ukraine is also fighting an entirely defensive war, which means they're committing their entire military force and have the morale and determination advantages. And, of course, Ukraine have a lot of allies supporting them militarily, financially and, hopefully at some point, diplomatically where Russia has very few (really just one).

If it was all about the raw numbers you referenced, Russia would have walked in to Kiev as Putin clearly expected they would with the initial invasion. The very fact that Ukraine resisted that initial invasion and have already fought Russia to a near standstill demonstrates that simple narrative is obviously wrong.

 

Well if you simply parrot what the news says, you're going to be wrong a lot.

 

How's Bahkmut going?

 

What did you predict about it, exactly?

 

Are you answering a question with a question?

 

It's important to know what you were predicting if we're to assess how accurate you were.

 

Especially news from State that is one side or the other of the conflict in question. ?! .. have these folks never heard of the "Fog of War" "First casualty of War is the Truth" -- after 60+ years on the planet ? .. Its hard for my brain to deal with .. let us hope not representative of average Joe.

 

Hmm I don't think I made any predictions, although you are free to search. Didn't you make some predictions about Bahkmut?

 

Nukes?

 

Could be. I've made plenty of wrong predictions.

 

No, it was meant to be Russia rapidly retaking its former slave state. When they didn't achieve a rapid win as expected, NATO realized Ukraine could be saved, and in saving Ukraine the current post-colonial world order would continue.

If it's a proxy war, it's between Russia and the US, but it was never really planned that way. Russia thought it would win quickly, and the US probably thought they would too.

As far as China, China is just a natural ally of Russia. They are the main state capitalists of the world, and both like to be totalitarian and take over weaker countries. Both are rivals to the US and NATO, but China has more economic entanglements with their western rivals. China has simply seen the war as an opportunity to profit from Russia's misfortune while also helping them as they want similar things for their own country (e.g. taking Taiwan).

 

It's a facade, much of what China does is.

China is riding a bubble.

 

Putin's SMO was predicated on peace negotiations taking place within a month of its launch. In fact, that was happening until Boris Johnson convinced the US puppet Zelensky to walk away from the negotiated interim settlement:

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2...hy-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/

"'Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement,' wrote Fiona Hill and Angela Stent. 'Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.'

"The news highlights the impact of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s efforts to stop negotiations, as journalist Branko Marcetic noted on Twitter.

"The decision to scuttle the deal coincided with Johnson’s April visit to Kyiv, during which he reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to break off talks with Russia for two key reasons: Putin cannot be negotiated with, and the West isn’t ready for the war to end."

The West wasn't ready for the proxy war to end because by April of 2022 investors had not received sufficient dividends from their Raytheon and Lockheed investments; War is a Racket.

What ever the current status of 155th Separate Marine Brigade, Russia has destroyed three Ukrainian armies, and it is Ukraine which has resorted to press gangs kidnapping teen-age males off the streets to continue a conflict they never had any chance to win

 

Which part of your argument refutes the facts that Russia currently occupies 17%-18% of Ukraine, has a 10:1 advantage in artillery and kia ratio, virtual complete control of airspace and coastal waters? How do you expect that to change in Ukraine's favor by Labor Day?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682