Wave watch: The blue wave is growing

My projection must be a reflection of Trump's reflection.

 

No, Sorry. My response was to you saying this-------
Meanwhile, Trump is claiming that the repugnance most Americans feel toward him will not be a factor on November 6:

It was not in response to what he said about his election expectations.

 

No. Sorry. What you highlighted were words used by Natty Bumpo, not by Trump.

 

As your cited article notes, "Latinos remain what they have been since at least 2008: a growing and solidly (if not monolithically) pro-Democratic demographic group. But they also participate in elections at a relatively low rate. And it’s not at all certain that anger at Trump will solve the Latino turnout problem for Democrats."

Democrats cannot depend primarily upon Latino Americans yet. Women, younger, Black, and college educated Americans are vital parts of the coalition.

Meanwhile, the GOP is not dependent upon the neo-nazis and other white supremacists who hail their Trump as "Glorious Leader!"

 

Meanwhile, Obama claimed the repugnancy and shame most decent Americans felt towards him and his sucky administration was not responsible for the Democrats losing a historic number of house seats in 2010.

 

This is beyond sophmoric. If idiots support Trump because he wants to enforce our immigration laws, so be it. Doesn't make Trump's position less correct.

 

Obama's completing the two terms to which he was popularly elected wit 60% approval speaks for itself.

If there are any chronic malcontents who still swallow the lie threat he wasn't born in the US and/or are still mincing around with their placards depicting him as an African witch doctor, it's past time they stop brooding.

Trump apologists can find far better diversions when they need them.

 

Apparently, Trump's neo-nazi and other white supremacist supporters concur.

​

 

I quoted you.

 

You thought you were quoting me but what you were doing was quoting a quote from Natty Bumpo which I pasted.

 

And all law abiding citizens agree with Trump. Not at all surprising to find you on the other side of the law.

 

Blah....blah....blah. I was comparing the first mid-term elections after Obama's election as compared to your expectations of the first mid-term elections under Trump. You resorted to changing the subject to Obama's approval rating two years after he's no longer President. That's called moving the goal posts. Don't blame you.

 

Forget the polls. Look at the early voting ballots already counted.. Analysis by Larry Schweikart, one of Trump's viter data analyst 2015-2016.

1) Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don't do polls.

Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of you who do. But we're WAY past polls now because we have actual NUMBERS.

2) A poll is a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give.

3) For example, before a horse race you can poll everyone---including jockeys (who may or may not know something), owners, bettors, whomever. But it's just an opinion.

Moreover, you have to know that in a political poll you have the correct sample (most absolutely do not).

4) The sample anymore is almost impossible to get, and certainly you cannot get it by phone only and you cannot get it by "self-reporting." So far, only @PPDNews and Trafalgar have a track record of really getting "likely" voters in the proper sample sizes.

5) I don't do polls.

6) I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew---very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican.

7) But then you need to compare the current numbers to something. The rule of thumb is you never compare a mid-term with a presidential election because the turnout for the latter is supposed to be so much higher.


Guess what I did?

I compared it anyway, just out of intuition.

So, in four sample states where we are already seeing large #s of ballot requests---AZ, FL, OH, and IA---and which have very different voting patterns, I have found that so far (and anything can change---but usually the patterns hold) the Republicans are exceeding their #s
. . . from 2016, a Presidential Election. This is not supposed to happen.

9) Moreover, with the help of Freepers "Ravi" and "SpeedyInTexas" and "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" and others, I have found that DemoKKKrats are falling behind their 2016 performanc

10) One would not be surprised that Ds are lagging behind 2016, a presidential election year. But it IS surprising that Rs are not only running ahead of 2014 (a midterm) but also 2016.

11) Just in case there was some weird state-wide tilt to these numbers, we also looked at four key FL counties, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Lee, and Broward, and in all four counties (!!) even the blue ones, Ds are underperforming 2016 and Rs are overperforming. .

12) Same is true in IA absentees. Ds always lead in total absentees in IA.
But again, they are behind the 2016 election---and in 2016 Ds had fallen behind their 2012 #s in IA! But Rs are up from 2016.

13) So we looked at a key IA district that no one is watching, IA2 that everyone just assumed the D incumbent will win. And lo and behold . .
Same pattern. Rs are up 7% in this district, D is down 2.6%. This is over 5,000 votes shifted already (plus Is are way down, indicating people are "picking sides").

In a district where the D won by 28,000, and where Ds ALWAYS lead in absentees, to be already down 5,000 votes before absentee voting is even over, and before the big guns that Rs bring on election day, well, if I was that D I'd be worried.

14) We did something different in Montgomery Co., OH--a key bellwether county. In 2016 "The Accountant" figured ou. how to allocate the "indies" by looking at a 20 year voting history of their addresses. It proved uncanny in its accuracy. We correctly projected Trump to win a county no R had won in 20 years.

15) That same county's absentees are coming in, we can count them .\

16) And those absentees, so far, are showing EXACTLY the same pattern as 2016 with, once again, the Rs performing a little better this time around.

17) There are similar #s coming in for absentees in AZ, where the Republicans are out to a 7% lead, despite having only. a registration advantage of about 140,000. Once again, a pattern. Rs overperforming, Ds underperforming..

.
1 Then finally you have to take into account voter registration and voter registration trends, where in 8/10 battleground states since 2016 Rs have made net gains. They don't always lead in registration (as in FL, for example, where they trail) but trends are important. They tell you which way the #s are going.

19) In OH, after doing the "indie" voter math, the Rs have a solid registration lead of 300,000 after all but 2k indies are accounted for.

WHERE DO YOU THINK THIS SHOWS UP WITH "POLLSTERS?" It won't. None of them did this work.

20) So, before you send me "What about this guy?" or "What about this poll?" I don't know and I don't care. Unless someone is getting different math than me on absentee request #S and absentee return #s it's irrelevant.

21) They are asking people in the stands asking their opinion of who will win.

I'm at each turn, giving you photographic evidence of where the horses are.

Now, that STILL doesn't mean I'm always right. Horses fall. Some horses really come on at the end.

But . . .
22) here is another reality the "pollsters" and pundits either miss or flat out ignore:

LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY VOTED. We just haven't counted them yet, but we can know if they were Ds or Rs!!
23) In FL for example some 400,000 absentee ballots went out. So all the campaigning from here on out, and anything that happens that might change a vote . . .

WON'T CHANGE THOSE VOTES.

24) And what do you think is the single biggest issue motivating people in the last 3 weeks?

If you said Justice Kavanaugh, you'd be right. Not jobs, not health care, not immigration. That event was the most "motivating" voter event of the last 10 years.

25) So let me now ask you this: if 5,000 more Iowans in a single district requested absentee ballots at this time
and they were all Republicans, what do you think they'd be voting on?

26) And let me put it this way: if 50,000 (or whatever the number) of FL ballots have already been RETURNED, what was the biggest issue when those people were in the middle of voting?

27) And since we know that the Republicans have about a 7% lead in those RETURNED ballots, would it not be safe to assume that they were all voting on issues rated to Justice K? I think so.

2 Those are touchdowns already scored. Can't take them off the board.

29) So now in all these areas I've mentioned, the Ds have LESS TIME and a much smaller voter pool from which to now recover that 7% lead, or those 5,000 IA votes.

See how this works?

30) Finally, my assumption--could be wrong---is that a river carries all boats the same way.

31) I have asked a historical genius on this kind of data, "Can you think of ANY time in American electoral history where one party gained four to six senate seats and lost the House." None.

32) Therefore, when I see data---not polls, but ballots---ALL going the same way
. . . they I don't care what polls or "experts" say. The voters are

SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT.

And this was exactly how I knew Trump would win very early in the 2016 election.
The VOTES were talking.
\

 

Nice to see you mentioned everybody but uneducated whites and poor people. So you feel the Democratic party should only be Mexican, Black or college educated? I know you never said that but that message can be taken from your message. The Republican party is for everyone and not just Mexicans and college educated people. This is one place where the Democratic party gets it wrong.

 

What a ridiculous, fanatical, and unAmerican thing to say.

Follow, in lock step, the Glorious Leader or you violate the law!

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My providing you with a more comprehensive retrospective - Obama completing his two terms with 60% approval - was merely a point of information for you, not a concession to your attempted diversion to days of yore.

 

I cannot help you with however you choose to distort my "message.

The GOP being 90% White and older, and male in its elected representation, speaks for itself.

The diversity of the Democratic Party in race, gender, age, and educational attainment speaks for itself.

 

Democrat Running for Governor in Georgia: Illegal Aliens are Going to Help Us Get That Blue Wave

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katie...a-blue-wave-by-illegal-aliens-voting-n2528623

 

No, it was not merely a point of information. It was a poor attempt to deflect from the fact that you had a weak argument.

 

Gonna love revisiting this thread after the midterms.

 

It's nice to have my old account back. I would like to point out we are doing much much better with African Americans now so that 90% white number you tossed out is probably inaccurate and the majority of white Democrats are uneducated and I was not surprised you left them out of your post. Don't forget you lost a good part of the blue collar work force and with the economy so great that trend may continue.

 

What empirical evidence do you actually have for the wishful thinking that Black Americans are suddenly joining the GOP?

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That has not been the case since Nixon's "Southern Strategy."

As Nixon’s political strategist, Kevin Phillips, told the New York Times in 1970:

All the talk about Republicans making inroads into the Negro vote is persiflage... From now on, the Republicans are never going to get more than 10 to 20 per cent of the Negro vote and they don’t need any more than that ... but Republicans would be shortsighted if they weakened enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That’s where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangement with the local Democrats.
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Yes, Trump has captivated older, less-educated, White males, but the unavoidable, inherent shelf life of that strategy is "older."

Demographic diversity is increasing as youth becomes the American electorate, better-educated, multi-racial, and with women playing an increasing role.

 

Vote Now
Get Bragging Rights a few weeks from now

Will The Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives
http://politicalforum.com/index.php...ntrol-of-the-house-of-representatives.543958/

 

Sure about that?

"A Monmouth University poll shows Miller with the support of 48 percent of likely midterm voters in the state, compared to 45 percent who say they support Ojeda. The poll's results come after previous surveys of the district in deep-red West Virginia showed Ojeda with as much as a double-digit lead."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ground-in-tight-west-virginia-house-race-poll

 

Positive. The do nothing autocrats like McConnell and Ryan have ensured their anti individual liberty platform has consumed itself.