Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

This is creepy & surreal. It's weird having the kid underfoot 24/7. It's weird having my husband here 24/7. Even the cats are confused. Dogs around the world are insanely happy, though.

I imagine the landscape of Cubicle Farm will change dramatically, world-wide. I wonder how many people who just started working from home will stay so. I've been working from home for about 18 years. I have never regretted it.

 

"Forget the politics. There is no red and blue. There is red, white and blue."
-Andrew Cuomo, 30.03.20, 14:23 EDT

This is more true than ever before.

 

Like Trump said, it's the invisible enemy and even Merkel invoked WWII. But really, WWII was like 8-9 countries. This REALLY is a world war. Which is why cooperation needs to be the order of the day for all of us in ways big and small. I'mma do my part and stay home.

 

So, the list already includes school closures for both states. But I don't think either has a Statewide non-essential business shut down order in place.

This source for Arkansas from three days ago with the governor saying restaurants "can remain open on their own choosing and based upon market demand." The article does note that many businesses have closed on their own volition. If you have a new source that has changed that statewide order, please let me know.

Same source, also @LoneStarGal , notes that Texas similarly does not have a statewide order for shutdowns. But instead Abbot left the decision to cities, counties and school districts to make their own choice. The article does not that he implemented restrictions to elderly care facilities, hospitals, prisons, and daycare centers.

 

I heard from a kid who is 15 right now and he said, "We hear all these stories from grandparents about what it was like to live through the Great Depression. Someday, I am going to be able to tell my grandkids about living through the year of Covid-19."

I am thankful that my own son, who is 2 and a half, will likely (and hopefully) not have any direct memories of this time period.

 

I listened to NPR's "Wait, wait don't tell me" from last week and they had a couple of jokes after they read an article about the dogs not getting sick, even if they test positive.

Essentially, it went something like, "Dogs everywhere are insanely happy to have their owners home so much. What if this is all a big hoax invented by the dogs? News at 11: Research confirms that the only cure for covid is more belly rubs!"

 

Posting this right now because:

1.) my dogs are insanely happy
2.) I like you guys

These pics are 1 minute old:



Note sock around injured paw.



I cannot even sit on the toilet without 4 adorable eyes staring at me, saying, "hey, now would be a great time for a game of fetch!!"

And yes, I have the sweetest Dackel(s) in the whole wide world!

 

Lovely. Is that a Cairn Terrier?

 

Both are both of a Dachshund-family, but no doubt in both cases, Terrier is also in the mix. Mutts are the best in the world. The little guy, 6 KG, (with the paw-sock) is called "Bogart" and the girly, 7 KG, is called "Xara" (pronounced 'Tsara'). She is part of a subcategory called Rauhaardackel - Scruffy-haired-Dachshund.

 

Before 3 PM on the East Coast of the USA, already today, 281 people have died in the USA from COVID-19. And there are 9 hours left in this day on the East Coast.
Yesterday, a total of 363 people died in the USA on that day.

Soon, the numbers in the USA will dwarf the shocking numbers we have been seeing out of Italy and Spain combined.

I am writing this to help prepare members of PF for what is surely going to come. There is no stopping the first wave now.

 

My preference would be that the "it's not as bad as the flu," crowd is right and they can play "told ya so!" Wishful thinking, but I really want them to be right.

This is so much worse than prepping / waiting for a hurricane.

 

Italy has now crossed over the 100,000 line in verified COVID-19 cases.

Right now, it is:

USA 156,249
Italy 101,739

There are 42 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases. 12 or them have over 10,000 cases.

 

I am understanding you far better than you may realize.

In poor areas of India, people are actually sleeping IN THE TREES in order to socially distance themselves from family members. IN. THE. TREES.
In the year 2020.

 

We are at the beginning of the curve. The government model is predicting 82,141 deaths. If deaths remain around 1.5% of cases, then we are looking at 5.5 Million confirmed cases in the country between now and August.

 

Indeed.

It probably goes without saying that this model is a conservative estimate. And there is nothing wrong with that. And as you yourself so correctly indicated, "if".
I am going to submit that since the USA has far more very large cities than Italy, France, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom of the Province of Hunan in China, these numbers could end up being far, far worse.

The population density in many parts of Chicago is very similar to NYC, it could, overnight, become a second NYC.

Also, for those wondering why Michigan is heating up so fast, it's not just Detroit. It's because the airport there, where people land and travel all over Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, is a preferred, easier, lighter-to-travel hub than places like O'Hare in Chicago or the Int'l Airport in Cincy. I've flown through Detroit many times, because the lower price in choosing that hub over other, better known hubs, was so good. Landing in Detroit, which has a wonderful underground walkway between the two big terminals, makes it easy to pick up a flitzer to Chicago, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Dayton, Indy, Cincy, Lexington, Covington, even Pittsburgh. And from there, you can hit the most populated areas of the middle of Michigan and the lion's share of Ohio within a 4-5 hour drive.

 

Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU, Germany) has tested negative with her 2rd COVID-19 test, so she is surely good to go and will be going back to work, I assume.

 

The model is fluid not static, so for any particular day no one can say whether it is conservative or overestimated. Only after everything is over, will any model prove true or false.

Everything depends on the unquantifiable. People staying home.

 

Why has S. Korea not closed all restaurants and malls? They're supposed to be doing pretty good.

 

Virginia issued a Stay at Home Order, goes into effect tonight.

 

I would like to give a quick update on how things are looking in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. The Berliner Morgenpost (a respected newspaper out of the capitol city) has been publishing this interactive map within it's COVID-19 blog:

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-virus-karte-infektionen-deutschland-weltweit/

(I linked to this map in the OP)

Here the current map (screenshot from just a few minutes ago):



The map represents number of infected, numbers of healed and numbers of dead in three in-each-other circles.

First, Northrhein-Westfalia and Bavaria are now literally tied in the number of COVID-19 cases. NRW has 14,442 cases, Bayern has 14,437 cases. That's a difference of only 5 cases.

The green circle within the red circle represents the number of healed cases as a percentage of all reported cases for that province. The black circle within the green circle within the red circle represents the dead. So, the red circles for both NRW and Bayern are identical in size, because they quite literally have the same number of reported COVID-19 cases. But the % of healed and dead within those circles is very different. You can clearly see that in NRW (Bonn, Köln, Düsseldorf, etc), the green circle is visibly larger than than in Bayern. But the black circle (the number and % of dead) is larger in Bayern than in NRW. The third largest circle in Germany is in Baden-Württemberg, to the left of Bayern. This makes sense. Those three provinces are the three largest provinces. In Berlin, the capital city, you can see that the number of cases is decidedly less, but that the % of healed is enormously large, so we see some real hope in Berlin. In Hamburg, up in the North, one of the largest harbor cities in the world, it's as if the disease has not arrived yet and many Hamburgers are still behaving irresponsibly.

And now, cast your eyes to the left of Germany and look at the circles for both the Netherlands and Belgium. Look how very large the black circle is in the Netherlands. This is a huge catastrophe in the making, and entirely the fault of the government of the Netherlands, which is still not on lockdown. The "coffee" shops in Amsterdam and Entschede are still open, the red-mile-zone and pink-mile-zone (prostitution districts) in Amsterdam are still open, and we are seeing the result of people not socially distancing. Things are not much better in Belgium.

If you are wondering where the breadbasket of Germany is, it's "farmland Midwest", that would be the northerly provinces, most especially the cow-province of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, but also Bremen and Schleswig-Holstein. Also, lost of northern NRW is also very rural, with some of the best apple farms and horse stalls in all of Germany.

Feel free to go to the link and without even being able to read or speak German, you will see that when you scroll over the circles, the numeric data, color-coded, will appear. I think it's a good way to visually present this data.

-Stat

 

Absolutely. Spot-on. It now is very much dependent on individual responsibility.

 

Just a few short moments ago, with about 2 hours and 20 minutes left in my day, we crossed over the 37,000 mark in terms of people who have died from COVID-19:



Here the statistical workup, back to 02/27:



Currently, the death rate = 4.79%.

 

No matter what model, this is just the beginning.

IHME data... (U.S. only)

 

Best wishes of health to the German Chancellor and to all world leaders during this trying time.

 

This is happening in Tampa Bay, Florida right now:



This is not meant as a flame in any way, shape or form. It is what it is. But it does remind that sometimes, public health issues collide with 1A issues.

I'm not saying that this is good or bad. Again, just to be crystal clear, this is NOT a flame.

But it IS happening. And people need to consider that maybe, just maybe, G-d would want us to us science as a tool to help save ourselves from disaster.

-Stat