It’s Trump v Biden again. Why were there no better options for voters?

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Eclectic, Mar 9, 2024.

  1. The Mello Guy

    The Mello Guy Well-Known Member

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    that doesn’t mean that a third candidate couldn’t win a couple states and block someone from 270.
     
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  2. Chuck711

    Chuck711 Well-Known Member

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    It's the progression of a single term President in office to run for Election

    The Republicans put up some very good candidates however chaos and mayhem won out
     
  3. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    nope, cause if they lost, those votes would go to one of the other candidates, via the ranked system

    the current third part vote would do exactly what your saying, though without the ranked system
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2024
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  4. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    Democrats weren't about to let someone primary Biden I think they were afraid that it would show weakness.

    And in reality Biden supposedly one an election and anybody he went up against would not have that qualification.

    And I think the same goes for Donald Trump. In the beginning there over a dozen different options there were multiple options when I voted in the primary people didn't want the others they wanted Donald Trump.
     
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  5. Josh77

    Josh77 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Maybe because they don't bother trying because it doesn't matter who is President. The real people in power are not elected. Politics is just a circus to keep the masses occupied.

     
  6. The Mello Guy

    The Mello Guy Well-Known Member

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    So for president, your view of rank voting would be on a National scale not just for that states electors? I’m operating on the assumption it would only be for who wins that’s state…does that make sense?
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2024
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  7. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ah, I see what your saying now, hmm, good point, this would not solve for that unless at the federal level, or we get rid of the EC
     
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  8. popscott

    popscott Well-Known Member Donor

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    @JohnHamilton
    "Most voters don't know enough about the issues to pick the candidate they WANT let alone rank them."
    Turn on CNN and MSNBC one night... you will find out WHY most voters don't know enough about the issues.... They are not stop Trump, Trump, Trump and never cover the issues... talk about a messed up bunch of reporting, you'll find it there..
     
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  9. JohnHamilton

    JohnHamilton Well-Known Member

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    Yes, those biased networks have to keep pounding the same two messages. 80% of the time it’s “Hate Trump.” 20% of the time, it’s “Biden is really sharp in Whitehouse meetings. The third year olds can’t keep up with him.”
     
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  10. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Nah, the candidates we have running in all likelihood are not the best options we could have, especially at the top levels. And not just in this election cycle either, I would say that the same is true of nearly every election cycle.

    We have better candidates that could run, though of course the challenge in any democracy is in that not everyone will agree with what is better or best, but this is to be expected, the goal therein should be to have a process in which we, being of varying opinions, can come to a consensus of what is best. The problem however, is that under our current system of picking leaders, voters are actually disincentivized from picking who they personally believe to be the best candidates due to things like spoiler effects and tactical voting, issues inherent under Plurality Voting systems. And those issues by extension also make those better candidates less likely to run in the first place, all of which artificially limits our choices as voters and hinders our ability to effectively come to any true consensus on who the best candidates are.

    In my opinion, the way to fix this is, at all levels of government, for us to start swapping out Plurality Voting systems in order to set up Ranked Voting systems which allow for more voter expression in their place. The Plurality methods are decent enough quick-and-dirty methods for establishing the general direction voters want to go in on issues with clear-cut lines and broad levels of agreement, but for a lot of things and especially for the more nuanced subjects, our Plurality system just isn't going to cut it when it comes to voter satisfaction, as I'm sure pretty much every American is already keenly aware of at this point.

    -Meta
     
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  11. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Given a popular third party candidacy on the national level, I'd say that Ranked Voting would actually make it significantly less likely that none of those candidates would be able to reach 270. Because like FreshAir already mentioned, a losing candidate's votes would be transferred to another candidate. If we're talking electors ranking things, then, in theory, a winning candidate could actually even end up receiving all 538 electoral votes even in a 50-50 split country like we have today, assuming every candidate was ranked. Of course, if not every candidate is ranked on every ballot, a contingent election is still a possibility, but no more so (and actually still a lot less so) than it would be under our current system. Because it would only take a few electoral votes (not all, probably not even half) from a losing third party to bump one of the other candidates up to or above 270. It'd be in the hands of voters to prevent contingency by simply ranking alternative options.

    To The Mello Guy's point though, if we assume that popular third party candidates would be more likely to want to run under a Ranked system, then at least in that sense you could say that it would make it more likely for a contingent election to occur simply due to their presence in comparison to a Plurality vote in which they might be dissuaded from running for fear of being a spoiler candidate. Though, the idea here I think, is that we ought to want those popular third party candidates to want to run, so sticking with a system because it indirectly excludes them probably isn't the best idea. But Mello Guy, in your last post there, you make mention of the challenge of combining a Ranked Voting system with the National level Electoral College, and maybe this is what you were trying to get at before. It's a valid concern imo. Because this really all depends on how things would be set up at that level, and there is certainly a wrong way for things to be set up...

    When it comes to establishing a Ranked Voting system at the National level alongside the Electoral College, I believe there are basically 6 different ways of dealing with that, with 3 of those methods being superior to the other 3. (see next post)

    -Meta
     
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  12. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    So here are what I think the options are when it comes to addressing how Ranked Voting would interact with the Electoral College...
    Some would require broad agreement between the states, and some would allow for states to shift over one-by-one:

    IR=Instant Runoff, RP=Rank Pairs (or equivalent)
    Legend (for level of issue or challenge posed by the option):
    Significant issue or challenge
    Moderate issue or challenge
    Minimal issue or challenge

    1. Allowing voters only to rank (but not electors):
    Voters of each state submit ranked ballots. Each state picks electors based on the IR or RP winner of that state. Sort of defeats the purpose of ranking, since electors would still be using Plurality, which essentially means that state level spoilers can occur.
    a) allows for voters to specify their order of preference for each candidate
    b) high risk of spoiler candidates
    c) shift can be made on a state-by-state basis
    2. Allowing voters only to rank (but not electors):
    Voters of each state submit ranked ballots. A nation-wide IR or RP winner is determined based on all submitted ballots. States agree to pick electors based on that winner. This gets rid of spoilers, but does require broad cooperation from the states in order to determine a nation-wide IR/RP winner.
    a) allows for voters to specify their order of preference for each candidate
    b) risk of spoiler candidate is minimized

    c) requires buy in from a large number of states, or IR/RP limited to participating states
    3. Allowing electors only to rank (but not voters):
    Voters of each state submit Plurality ballots. Each state picks electors based on the state's or districts' plurality winner, but they can then vote via a ranked system. They'd be expected to rank their state's plurality winner at the top, but could determine similar candidates to put in the number 2, 3, 4 spots, etc. Upshot of this is that it doesn't require any change to the ballot format for voters.
    a) does not allow voters to specify their order of preference
    b) moderate risk of spoiler candidates
    c) requires federal level process change only
    4. Allowing voters and electors to rank:
    Voters of each state submit ranked ballots. Statewide or district-wide rankings are determined. Each state picks electors who then participate in their own ranked vote and are expected to rank according to their state or district's statewide or district-wide ranking.
    a) allows for voters to specify their order of preference for each candidate
    b) risk of spoiler candidate is minimized

    c) requires federal level process change and state shift which can be made on a state-by-state basis
    And then of course, we also have these two options, which I'll include for completeness:

    5. Get rid of or significantly alter the Electoral College to mandate ranking system nation-wide:
    Given enough support, this would actually be the cleanest method, removing superfluous bits of unnecessary bureaucratic process.
    But obviously getting the required amount of support would be quite the heavy lift, to put it lightly.
    a) allows for voters to specify their order of preference for each candidate
    b) risk of spoiler candidate is minimized

    c) requires a constitutional amendment
    6. Keep things the way they are (neither voters nor electors can rank):
    Well...this is just what we have now. Obviously, it'd be the easiest to implement (since we don't have to do anything),
    but its also the option which leaves us with the most unresolved issues.
    a) does not allow voters to specify their order of preference
    b) high risk of spoiler candidates

    c) requires no change


    In my opinion, options 2, 3, and 4 would be the main ones to consider, with 2 and 4 being the ideal choices, and 3 being something which could be used to more gradually get to 4. I included 1, 5, and 6 just to be thourough, but imo these are less ideal to pursue from where we are today either due to ineffectiveness or the amount of challenge there'd be in getting the required support. Those are my views anyway, but what are your thoughts on those options??

    http://politicalforum.com/index.php...ion-in-politics.529608/page-6#post-1068933378

    -Meta
     
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  13. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    I actually feel like one of the main reasons, perhaps THE main reason, for why campaigns tend to be so negative towards other candidates as opposed to selling up the positives of a candidate or focusing on how they would handle the issues is because of the lack of serious competition in general elections. When those races come down to just two people having a shot, then it often becomes simply easier to just tear down the other guy rather than explain or build up one's own views on things. I also think that this is why a lot of voters don't bother familiarizing themselves with the more nuanced aspects of issues or with other candidates beyond the main two. When the election system is set up such that voting for moderate ideas likely means increasing the chances of your least favored options winning, then why waste time and energy like that considering those alternative views and candidates?

    Or in other words, we've got an overly simplistic Plurality election system. We shouldn't be too surprised that it results in voters then interacting with the election process in simplistic ways that lead to simplistic outcomes. If we were to allow for fuller voter expression by switching to more Ranked methods of voting, we'd probably still have a number of "lazy" voters, but I believe we'd start to see a lot more voters suddenly become interested in digging deeper into the issues, more voters considering a wider spectrum of candidates, and I think that candidates themselves would be forced more to elevate themselves and what they'd be bringing to the table, since smearing someone else wouldn't be as effective at making you the winner when there's a larger pool of choices.

    And sure, not every voter would rank things even when given the option, and that's fine in my opinion, because it would then be the voters who were willing to educate themselves on the options and understand the candidates to the point at which they could and would rank them who would then become the deciding factor at least at the margins. Might not exactly help with the whole 'getting a candidate's name out there' thing or network bias, but you know... one issue at a time and such...

    -Meta
     
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  14. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    RFK is lifelong Democrat environmentalist and crusader against corporate corruption, that wants to avoid foreign wars, protect reproductive rights, further socialize public services and dislodge corporate capture from our regulatory institutions. But that last thing ran afoul of the pharmaceutical corporations that own the media, so now he's a 'anti-science right-wing extremist.'

    If that doesnt tell you why we can't get better candidates, then nothing will.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2024
  15. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    Money. You have to be able to extort $100M out of people before you announce just to have a shot at the nomination. Good guys don't have it in them to do it.
     
  16. StillBlue

    StillBlue Well-Known Member

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    I will continue to maintain that Joe is in it only until T**** is gone, bankruptcy or for criminal charges, so that the campaigns of the actual candidates can be more on policy less on name calling and vitriolic rhetoric.
     
  17. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'd suggest you take a good look at the Democratic Party.

    Democratic Party rigs the nomination election in Florida

    You can also take a look at how the Democratic Party moved their opening nomination elections to South Carolina because they projected Biden would have better chances there. They did this over the outraged objections of the local Democratic Party in Iowa.
    Several other tricks were used by the Party to try to guarantee that Biden would win the nomination.

    Let's face it. The real problem is so many of the Democratic Party voters are low information voters. Why did none of the voters organize or supply resources to make sure another candidate would get the nomination?

    Anyone could have seen this coming, but people like you did nothing. Now you will just complain.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2024
  18. The Mello Guy

    The Mello Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yah you ignored a few things in there lol
     
  19. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, Dems did to Bernie what Repubs did to Nikki Haley - will Haley voters forget this?

    "Haley campaign blasts Nevada caucuses as ‘rigged for Trump’"

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4448836-haley-campaign-nevada-caucus-2024-trump/
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2024
  20. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oh right, and RFK doesn't want to disarm Americans.

    Thx, I forgot that one.
     
  21. Eclectic

    Eclectic Newly Registered

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    RFK is now mainly known for being an anti-vaxxer. The anti-vaccine movement pre-Covid was mainly a preoccupation of the left. He was sort of the Ralph Nader of the vaccine industry back in the "mercury in thimerosal causes autism" days.

    Somehow, early during Covid anti-vax switched to being a preoccupation of the right. RFK's positions on vaccines are now enough to get him drummed out of the Democratic Party. He has also been disowned by the Kennedy family over the issue.
     
  22. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    West Virginia is a goner as far as the Democrats are concerned. They wanted to be rid of Manchin, they are getting their wish. Although a MAGA republican will replace the centrist, moderate Manchin. But that’s what the democrats wanted. I agree with Montana and Ohio, pure tossups which could go either way.


    I’d say the house is another tossup as to who gains control. The GOP has a slight 2-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. I also count the seats at risk of switch to 22 Democratic, 21 Republican.


    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote


    I agree, with your supporting or defeating Trump as being the main reason for both major parties running candidates that are disliked and not wanted to become the next president by most Americans. I would say, roughly, give or take a few points that today we have approximately 35% wanting Trump, 35% wanting Biden with 30% wanting neither which falls into 3 categories, undecided, those who are stating they’ll vote third party or not vote at all if the rematch occurs. Popular vote – Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

    Three candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy

    Five candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...24/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein


    Going by available state polls, there are only 3 states where one candidate or the other has less than a 5-point lead. Only 3 swing or tossup states if one is going by state polls. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 270 to win also included Minnesota and Arizona, but 538 has Trump up by 8 in Arizona and Biden up by 8 in Minnesota. Thus, I don’t include those two states as tossups. My map based on 270, 538 and RCP state available polls.my map


    https://www.270towin.com/
     
  23. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And there's the point. RFK IS NOT 'anti-vax'. He's opposed to the volume of our childhood vaccine schedule (which has more recommended vaccines than any other country in the world, including some that other countries have banned due to their side effects) and SOME vaccines that the safety testing wasn't done properly due to regulatory capture (like the COVID vaccine, thx to Trump). That is not 'anti-vax', that is 'anti-corruption' in the vaccine industry. RFK wants to make vaccines safer, and the corporate news (which makes the majority of its profits advertising pharmaceuticals) just tells everyone he's 'anti-vax.'
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2024
  24. Surfer Joe

    Surfer Joe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think that going to the popular vote and abandoning the electoral college system is the most fair way.
    One person, one vote. It doesn't matter what state or precinct. That way, politicians won't pander to swing states and ignore so-called safe states and everyone has equal footing. Since most of America is purple anyway, then everyone has a voice to be heard in every single precinct, county or state.
    And the primary system is equally flawed if the formula is winner take all. Let each vote count and be apportioned proportionately to the competing candidates.
     
  25. popscott

    popscott Well-Known Member Donor

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    Please explain how letting California determine our elections is fair?
     

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