I've been saying for months that I think his real base support is 30-33%. So I'm gonna track poll numbers here from now until election day. Of course I invite you to post poll numbers too. Caveat: imo, three things matter in the end: 1) The Electoral College - it's there for a reason. The Founding Fathers served us well in that regard. 2) Approval ratings: they forebear the election results. Always have, always will. 3) The state of the Economy. Obama will win or lose on that one issue alone. Count on it. Here's a starter: From WSJ today: Approve...........44% Disapprove.......51% Whites.............31% Blacks..............85% Hispanics.........51% Women............43% Independents...26% And while we're at it, do you think he'll win or lose. Vote in the poll please.
Your poll question is not a "yes" or "no" question. If he runs against Ron Paul, he will lose. Anybody else, he will win.
The Poll Question was corrected at the member's request to make it a "yes" or "no" choice. Shiva_TD Site Moderator
Obama is gonna win for 1 simple reason. The Republican party is gonna nominate a lunatic who panders to the T-Baggers.
Lets see.... deep.... The Tea Party people, or "T-Baggers", as you like to call them. (Trying to insult Tea-Party people by using anti-gay rederic. Calling them gay is in your mind an insult) canidates did pretty good in 2010.
Yeah, what's up with that? It's so hypocritical for the left to throw gay insults at Tea Party people.....ROFL.
As at least one other has noted the Republicans are not likely to nominate anyone that will defeat Obama in 2012. Even though I oppose much of Obama's agenda I also recognize one important fact. President Obama will be going into his second term with a split Congress which means that he won't have much power to do anything harmful to America with his political agenda. Yes, "Obamacare" and the "Stimulus Bill" were horrible legislation IMO but the individual mandate in the HCR bill is probably going to be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court and the Stimulus Bill is water under the bridge. The last thing we need is a new adminstration to reek havoc on America and that's all the Republicans, with two exceptions (Ron Paul and Gary Johnson) are promising. The Republicans are virtually promising an attack on American Liberty with their religious agenda. They are promising more government, not less, and more deficit spending. The "Balanced Budget Amendment" is a joke and the Republicans are at least as authoritarian as the Democrats and maybe even moreso when it comes to government. Remember the Patriot Act? Remember that President Bush invaded two nations and doubled the national debt? Remember the violations of the 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 14th Amendments by the Bush adminstration? How many Republican candidates are opposed to the equal protection clause and the due process clauses in the US Constitution when it comes to same-sex marriage. No, we don't need some religious wacko nutcase Republican in the White House. I oppose President Obama but I sure wouldn't trade him for someone like Bachmann, Perry or Romney.
Hey I didn't choose the name...perhaps if they'd engaged their grey matter when choosing a name, they wouldn't have this embarrassing problem? BTW...it is not "anti-gay" rhetoric. Its a sexual act as I understand it. And yest they did do pretty good in 2010. Lets see how they do next year...because from what I understand, there are GOP member who are trying to distance thEmselves from these "excitable" PEOPLE.
Whoa, nelly !!! Obama has been going around Congress and the Constitution with regulations. Obama Looking For Ways Around Congress On Gun Policy EPA Circumvents Congress to Enforce Greenhouse Gas Emissions King Obama to Congress: "write the legislation I want, or else I will simply enact it by decree" Not to mention his recent directive to no longer deport illegals if the individual has no criminal record. Never mind that being here illegally is a crime. President Obama Should be Impeached for Changing Federal Immigration Act Without Congressional Permission He's been doing this ever since he was elected.
If the Republicans don't put up less-radical folks than they have leading now... Mr. Obama won't likely lose.
Obama will win simply because Ron Paul will not be the GOP nomination. The Country is not crazy enough to vote any other GOP nominee President over Obama. At least, I hope the Country isn't crazy enough to do so! Other then Ron Paul, you can see right through every other GOP candidate.
Gallup: Obama Had Worst Month Ever in August (CNSNews.com) - Over the course of August, Gallup asked 15,343 American adults whether they approved of the way Barack Obama was handling his job as president. The final result, the polling company reported today, was that only 41 percent said they approved, giving Obama the lowest monthly approval rating of his presidency. That is down 25 points from the 66 percent monthly approval Obama won in January 2009, the month he was inaugurated. Obama also hit his lowest monthly approval among Hispanics during August, and tied his lowest monthly approval among blacks. During the month, Gallup interviewed 1,183 Hispanics and 48 percent of them said they approved of the job Obama was doing as president. Gallup also interviewed 1,137 blacks during August and 84 percent said they approved of the job Obama was doing. During August, Gallup also asked 12,254 white Americans whether they approved of the way Obama was handling his job as president and 33 percent said they did—an all-time low for Obama’s approval among this group. Obama’s overall monthly approval of 41 percent for August was down three points from his monthly approval of 44 percent for July. In June 2009, during his first year in office, Obama had 95 percent approval among blacks, 78 percent approval among Hispanics, and 53 percent approval among whites. Since then, his monthly approval has dropped 11 points among blacks, 30 points among Hispanics, and 20 points among whites.
The link for the article in the previous post has gone away... Here's a new link for the cite: http://www.prisonplanet.com/gallup-obama-had-worst-month-ever-in-august.html
Yes is he an incredibly unpopular president, but shouldn't the GOP be focused on finding someone who can beat him? To be honest, I'm an outsider, but I haven't seen anything inspiring out of the GOP Candidates. Ron Paul looks very interesting, but we all know he won't be elected.
I don't understand the idea that Ron Paul is the only one that can beat Obama. I actually think he's got one of the lower chances of beating Obama because hawkish conservatives hate him and liberals/moderates who are soft on him will once they get to know his domestic platform. Romney has the best chance of beating Obama, simply because he will be competitive amongst moderates and the liberal base will not care. As much as conservatives complain and threaten to stay home, they always show up. The liberal base on the other hand need something to moivate or frighten them... or they don't bother. Sorry. That's just the way it is. Perry would be about 50-50 with Obama. It all depends on how he frames himself and how the media react. While his rhetoric is harsh, his record is more liberal. Really I suspect his main problem will be the immigration issue which will cause right-leaning independents and proptectionist-populists to turn against him (funny, it's one of two or three areas where I agree with Perry). Bachmann is unlikely to beat Obama. But I never say never at a point when the economy is so bad. At any rate, it will be near 50-50 just like any other election. If turnout is high (meaning young and poor people decided to show up), Obama wins. If not, the Republican wins. But that will depend heavily on who the nominee is and what happens between now and then. It's waaaaaaaaay too early.
Perry is trying to appeal to the Tea Party and I believe that fact alone would lead to him losing in a national race for president. Many suspicions related to the Tea Party movement are now being confirmed by studies. About 50% of Tea Party movement followers describe themselves a part of the Religious Right while other studies have established racist beliefs by about 50% of those belonging to the Tea Party movement. Neither of these are a good sign for becoming president. Certainly Michelle Bachmann has already established herself as being a closet racist and as a member of the Religious Right by her statements and actions. Perry is fundamentally "Bachmann Lite" from what I gather listening to him.
