Silver price watch

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by DA60, Aug 19, 2011.

  1. kuyajack

    kuyajack New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2011
    Messages:
    253
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    0
  2. DA60

    DA60 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,238
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ditto...lol.
     
  3. DA60

    DA60 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,238
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Silver Hits Six Week High

    'NEW YORK—Silver futures surged Friday to their highest level in six weeks, as hopes for steady demand for the precious metal replaced the economic gloom that dragged prices lower last month.

    The most actively traded silver contract, for March delivery, rose $1.166, or 3.8%, to settle at $31.675 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest ending price since Dec. 9.

    About half of silver demand comes from industrial uses, making the metal more sensitive to some economic indicators than gold. Because of its conductivity and durability, silver is used extensively in electronics for cellphones, computers, automobiles and solar panels.

    The recent trend of better-than-expected economic data from the U.S. and top commodities consumer China has helped to blunt the pessimism that weighed on the silver market at the end of 2011.

    "There is cautious optimism over industrial demand," said Jim Steel, precious metals analyst with HSBC. "And we have very strong coin demand, which tends to be a stronger influence on silver than the other precious metals markets."

    Sales of silver coins by the U.S. mint in January are already 50% above the average monthly sales figures in 2011, a reflection of investor demand for precious metals as an alternative asset, analysts said. Demand was also likely fueled as investors saw a bargain in the metal's steep declines in late-2011.'...

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577173091455214750.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
     
  4. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2010
    Messages:
    7,898
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    0
    silver is rising because of the tensions in europe!
     
  5. DA60

    DA60 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,238
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    63
    You maybe right but why would tensions in Europe cause just silver to rise and not gold (as is the case today - gold is barely up when compared to silver)?
     
  6. DA60

    DA60 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,238
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    63
  7. DA60

    DA60 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,238
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Explaining Today's Silver Surge

    'A few days ago, Eric Sprott decided to take advantage of the record premium over NAV of his physical silver fund PSLV (or for some other arbitrary reason) and to issue a $300MM follow-on offering, whose proceeds would be used to buy up silver to add to PSLV's existing physical holdings. Naturally, as soon as the news broke, the premium dropped to about 10%, making PSLV holders unhappy. This is not the first time that Sprott has done this: as a reminder after his April 2011 follow on offering in PHYS, we were fully expecting a comparable physical sequestration to occur via PSLV, to wit: "It appears to have already had an impact on silver, which jumped by $20 cents to another 31 year high on the news, as the market now likely expects a follow on offering in PSLV as well imminently." About 10 months later, it finally happened. As was to be expected, any short-term gains focused investors obviously became angry that by collapsing the premium, which we speculated was shortage driven, they have suffered a hit to their P&L (expressed in dollars of course, which as a reminder to the holders, should be largely irrelevant, especially to those who believe a PM-based barter system is imminent). Yet they forget the flip side to the equation: the money taken out of the premium, would be promptly used to take silver out of (hyper hypothecated) circulation, in other words, in the closed system, the drop in Premium would translate in a rising price in the underlying. Which according to UBS is precisely what has happened, and why silver moved as much as it did. Quoting from FMX Connect: "Today’s incredible move was the culmination of a comment made by UBS analyst Edel Tully. He stated that hedge fund manager Eric Sprott may be in the market buying spot futures in a private letter to his clients." And even as the premium dropped, the price of spot silver increased by over 5%, on the speculation of silver being taken out of the market and delivered to Sprott.'

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/explaining-todays-silver-surge
     
  8. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2010
    Messages:
    7,898
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    0
    for the last 10 years this is how its been......one year silver outperforms gold and the following year gold outperforms silver......there is no logic to it but thats just the way it is. However, there is a severe shortage of silver looming in the coming decade as there is way more consumption of silver than new supplies being mined...it should prove interesting! :)
     
  9. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2011
    Messages:
    4,296
    Likes Received:
    115
    Trophy Points:
    63
    As usual , it is a multi factor situation and one that also requires a time reference of at least a year .
    The Sprott move is news to me , as I have been abroad and am not due back home until early tomorrow .
    Other contributors are right to point out the scarcity value of this metal which becomes more pronounced if present global demand is maintained ---- unlikely in my estimation .
    However , as the Tsunami begins to grow during the course of this year , there will be an acceleration toward anything that looks more solid than cash and most equities . The demise of the Euro is just the first stage of the impending chaos .The next few weeks will be very bloody .
    Also , bear in mind that when the Gold Bull market checked at 1900 , the corresponding fall in Silver was far greater --- from just under 50 to around 30 The historic link ratio between the two metals has temporarily changed and some upward independent move in silver was a reasonable forecast --- which is why I loaded everything not already in siver into a Canadian Silver EFT at 27 .
    In my opinion , the price would be nearer 40 now if the ECB and other lending facilities had not been embroiled in massive QE over the last few weeks --- over a trillion euro , I believe .
    Long term , this will be seen just as another failed delaying tactic and when the flood gates go down , metal prices will jump sensationally .
    If we end the year below 50 , I will seriously doubt my sanity , but would not be surprised to see it nearer 70 in a worst case scenario .
     
  10. DA60

    DA60 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,238
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    63
  11. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2011
    Messages:
    4,296
    Likes Received:
    115
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Got it spot on for once .Exited from Gold on an inverse ETF and switched into a Bull in Silver five minutes later , on the first trading day after Xmas ( might have been the Wednesday rather than Tuesday ) -- too lazy to check my contract notes .
    If the new EU talks are a nonsense , I might follow it to 40-41 then sell again on a technical correction before buying back .
    Happy dreaming .
     
  12. TopCat

    TopCat New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2008
    Messages:
    457
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    If there's a default then everything will drop 2008 style in the immediate aftermath, including PM's. Look at the volatlity at the moment, we're seeing 3-4 % moves in silver on a daily basis based on titbits of news. Unless you're in the know then it's a guessing game.
     
  13. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    37,112
    Likes Received:
    9,515
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I can only hope.
    Whoopie, get out the checkbook !!!
     
  14. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2010
    Messages:
    7,898
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    0
    correct.....but once the banks and insurance companies start imploding I can guarantee you that both the european central bank and the fed will start printing trillions to prevent a total collapse of the system.
     
  15. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2011
    Messages:
    4,296
    Likes Received:
    115
    Trophy Points:
    63
    They are already doing it and the more they print --- US will do the same using cover tactics --- the higher Gold and Silver will go .
     
  16. DA60

    DA60 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,238
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    63
  17. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2010
    Messages:
    7,898
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    0
    no matter how much they are printing now, they will print even more once Greece and Portugal default along with possibly Ireland. And yes, gold and silver should do very well!
     
  18. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2011
    Messages:
    4,296
    Likes Received:
    115
    Trophy Points:
    63
    There are obviously a few punters in Silver here and possibly a few others who read but do not write --- come on in and don't be shy !!
    We have never discussed how we are involved in Silver .
    Let me recommend dealing on the Toronto market using the product Horizons Beta Pro Comex Silver Bull which has a Ticker , HZU . Don't be put off by the involved name , just use the Ticker HZU . All on line companies in GB handle the Toronto Exchange , but remember that on the floor deals are struck between 2.30 pm and 9.30 ( approx )in the evening --- our time , GMT
    This is a leveraged product , so , whilst the silver price has risen about 25% since post Xmas ( 33.86 at close divided by 27.0) , HZU has risen by twice that amount ( 7.13 close versus 4.70 buy ).
    Why take 25% when you can have 50% ?
    Clearly if you believe -- as I do -- that Silver will reach at least 50 this year , we are talking the difference between a 50% spot price increase versus current price , compared to a 100% gain using HZU .
    No Brainer .
    For those who are at this running speed already , bear with me .
    For those with even more interesting products , please give details .
    There will be corrections along the way--- both technical and profit taking -- which gives scope for even more profit making . But obviously you need to be a good judge of market movement -- and you can't learn that in five minutes .
     
  19. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2010
    Messages:
    7,898
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    0

    the problem with leveraged products ia that it works both ways...if silver drops by 10% then you lose twice that amount...why not just buy SLV if you want to trade the market?
     
  20. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2011
    Messages:
    4,296
    Likes Received:
    115
    Trophy Points:
    63
    No argument .
    But if you "know" Silver will rise as sure as tomorrow is Easter ( !! ) , why tiddle when you could piddle?
    OK , everybody must make their own decision ( risk assessment and budget implications) but I totally believe we are living in a historical tilting or tipping moment and it might be centuries before similar changes and opportunities will be seen on the scale that is beginning now .
    I find it literally impossible to seriously see any scenario where Europe and the US do not " go down the pan" . The only discussion in my book is about timing and degree of fall .
     
  21. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2010
    Messages:
    7,898
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    0
    since you love silver so much then you should also consider a silver mine which also gives you leverage like silver standard :)

    for me.....buy and hold is the safest bet.....sure I can make more buying leveraged ETF's but I just sleep better at night buying and holding and the profits are just fine :)
     
  22. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2011
    Messages:
    4,296
    Likes Received:
    115
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I cannot agree with that attitude , though this might just reflect different personal styles .
    Example .
    You buy Silver at 27 using a leveraged product and you watch it climb to around the 35 mark .
    Suddenly short term conditions change with the EU finding 2 trillion to ring fence defaulting countries and Barmy Ben announcing some scheme to stimulate growth which will just actually be QE3 .
    Silver price starts to fall . At 33.5 you decide to sell , and later , when you buy back at 29 , you are delighted to see the overall Bull market reassert itself as people see that nothing has really changed on the world economic front .
    Result ? Double profit . Several bites at the biggest and juiciest Cherry ever seen .
    With tongue in cheek , the two greatest friends the Bull Market has are Angela Merkel and Barking Ben Bernanke .
     
  23. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2010
    Messages:
    7,898
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    0
    another technique is to buy and hold physical silver for the long haul and trade SLV for short term profits as it mirrors the actual spot silver price!
     
  24. DA60

    DA60 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,238
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Another technique is to put every penny you can possibly get your hands on into silver, then kidnap Ben Bernanke and several Fed members and brain wash them to announce that the Fed is starting a $5 trillion dollar QE3 AND that the Fed will be purchasing hundreds of millions worth of silver for 'inflationary security purposes', hold him for a few weeks, sell your silver after it hits $100, remove the brainwashed Fed members from your 'spell', go and move to the Caymen Islands (or wherever) and live happily ever after.

    I am not saying it's a good technique, but...
     
  25. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2010
    Messages:
    7,898
    Likes Received:
    129
    Trophy Points:
    0
    better yet have Bernacke give everybody a billion dollar note :)
     

Share This Page