Is southwest Asia and maybe North Africa heading into its own Thirty Years War? A nasty, prolonged and bloody war over sectarian lines and a re-alignment of old colonial boundaries. This link makes a case. http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffee...le-east-is-far-bigger-than-isis-and-al-qaeda/ America has lost interest (thanks to fracking) and capability, and Europe had abdicated capability decades ago (free stuff is too important). Putin is busy re-establishing the Tsars empire to do more than token support. China just wants oil, but (for the moment) has no force projection So the region is left to its own regional powers. For now, that is Iran and Saudi Arabia champions of the Shia and Sunni branches of Islam, just as Austria and Sweden were champions of Catholicism and Lutheranism back in the early seventeenth century. Like the Thirty Years War, it looks like an even match. Both sides seek a Wallenstein and Gustavus Adolphus. I doubt either side has a leader of that caliber, but you never know til the light goes green.
A secterian war could result in a wholesale re-drawing of borders. Probably millions of people get re-located to adjust to those borders. Like scenario. Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and maybe Jordan cease to exist as we know them. An independent Kurdestan is carved out of the mountainous portions of Iraq, Turkey, Iran and northern Syria. Iran's frontier moved east the Tigris River. A Saudi-backed Sunni Arab state reaches from Basra to Aleppo in an arc. A Beduoin (loosely allied with the Sunni Arab state) buffer state subsumes Jordan and southern Lebanon, and fronts Israel. Control of Baghdad and the southern Iraq oil fields is in question. As this war revs up, Israel will take the opportunity to move all the (mostly Syrian) Arabs out of the West Bank and establishes a defensible border along the Jordan River. Israel's control of water into the Jordan and Litani Rivers will make border areas desert and will cut down on Arab nuisance raids. Endless war will force the US to pursue a policy of energy independence. Fracking and nuclear power make this a possible goal. At this point the US disengages other than some support of Israel. China will weigh in on the side of the Saudis. Europe will continue to pay through the nose to the Saudis and Russians for oil and gas.
So the French in Mali means what to you? And I really doubt a religious war is going to occur. Civil wars yes, but I doubt a religious war.
What made the Thirty Years War unusual was that it was actively prosecuted over most of that period (unlike the Hundred years War which would go through 8 or 10 year periods with no effective hostilities) the Thirty Years War was fought at least at low levels every campaign season. Leaders came and went. Wallenstein ruled the roost for the better part of a decade but couldn't beat Gustavus Adolphus. Gustavus - considered by miltary historians to be one of the Great Captains - had a short but brilliant career and he built a robust national force that lasted well into the eighteenth century despite Sweden's small population and relative poverty. His lieutenants (notably Oxenstierna) could handle Wallenstein but couldn't eliminate him. But by 1634 Wallenstein was dead and both side drifted until the Great Powers of the day (France, and Spain) weighed in The war changed from being a religious war in Germany to a balance of power war throughout Europe. Finally everyone was worn out and the Peace of Westphalia ensued redrawing the map of Europe. the horrors of big armies sweeping through wide areas led to a century and a half of small, professional armies with limited logistical capabilities and Europe war was reduced to border skirmishing until the coming of the French Revolution and Napoleon. Just so in Islamastan. We are in a phase like the 1620s where it is mostly a local affair with the surrogates of the Saudis and iranians fighting it out in a separate killing ground (Syria and iraq so far). As in Germany in the 1620s the great powers might dabble around the edges but don't see any reason to get involved. Whether the Saudi stooges or the Iranian stooges can give rise to a Wallenstein or Gustavus Adolphus is highly questionable. You have to go back 800 years to find a great Islamic commander. Without good leadership or the logistical capabilities of the great powers, the war in southwest Asia is mostly going to be a grinding of poorly trained and led forces mostly killing civilians. The Saudis and iranians will eventaully have to confront each other in the Persian Gulf. The sale of oil is what drives both economies. Without oil sales, both Saudi Arabia and Iran become primitive backwaters. As in the 1980s (when Iraq was the Saudi surrogate) there will be a tanker war. Disruption in the flow of oil will bring in the great powers and killing will begin in earnest. If the US is wise and develops energy autarky (within reach) the US has no need to get involved. Russia (as a big oil seller) has an interest in disruption of the flow of competitive Gulf oil. China and India need Gulf oil and will have to get involved. Europe, despite their preference for free stuff over warfare, will have to get in the game or freeze in the dark. Brazil (not really a great power yet) probably will have no effect. Israel will be the very tough nut but won't venture east of the Jordan or north of the Litani. The Israelis just don't have the population to get involved although expect them to expel Arabs from the west Bank if an opportunity presents itself. Look for the war to remain a localized bloodletting fought by stooges until the Iranians and Saudis are prepared to begin an oil war. Then the big boys will get involved and the nature of the fight will be very different. At the end of the day the map of southwest Asia will be radically redrawn. History may not repeat but it often rhymes.
