Today is the election to fill the congressional seat in Kansas' 4th congressional district. This seat was Mike Pompeo's seat (R). Pompeo now heads the CIA. The election for the vacant congressional seat in Georgia's 6th congresssional district is next week (jungle primary). Here are some good sources to inform ourselves about the candidates: Kansas' 4th Congressional District special election, 2017 - Ballotpedia -and- Kansas's 4th congressional district special election, 2017 - Wikipedia It's a three man race between Republican Ron Estes, Democrat James Thompson and Libertarian Chris Rockhold, with the usual pablum stuff that politicians say before they get elected and then proceed to **** over their electorate, anyhow. Pompeo won his seat with 60.7% of the popular vote in 2016 and with 66.7% in 2014, so this is a rock-solid, ruby-red CD. In fact, in the last 8 CD races here in KS-04, going back to 2002 (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016), the Republican has gone over 60% in 7 of 8 races, the exception being 2010, and that was a 4-man race: Kansas's 4th congressional district - Wikipedia That race, in 2010, was also the leanest Republican winning margin in a long time: R +22.33%, a blowout landslide margin. Remember, that is the LEANEST margin since 2002. The highest percentage a Democrat has scored here since 2002 was also 2002, where Carlos Nolla received 36.91%. There is no doubt that in this race, regardless who the Democratic candidate is, it's pretty much a "Sisyphus" race: That being said, James Thompson has the far deeper financial warchest than his opponent a rarity for Democrats in Kansas. Plus, a Libertarian is on the ballot. That being said, there has only been one poll of this race that I know of, from a Democratic pollster, and it shows the Republican comfortably ahead. I think it is pretty safe to say that this seat is statistically very likely to remain in GOP hands, but I will be interested to see how the voter turnout was and also to see what the margin will be. At the last minute, the GOP suddenly dumped money into this race, so maybe they see warning signs that others do not see. Wait and see. In 2014, an Independent in Kansas made a heavy run for the Senate against a very damaged GOP incumbent: United States Senate election in Kansas, 2014 - Wikipedia In fact, in 2014, the Democratic nominee stepped out of the race to help Orman, who was leading in polls, then was tied in polls, but on election night, lost to Roberts (R) by 11.6 points. So, Kansans may occasionally dance with the "other girl" but on election night, they usually go to bed with the elephant, just the same. I am providing this information as a baseline to see what happens tonight. Should Thompson even come remotely close to Estes, that is certainly a harbinger of things to come. Surely the GOP will play this up as an endorsement of Pres. Trump, but in a ruby-red state like Kansas, which is a 19-for-20 Republican state on the presidential level, going all the way back to 1940 (76 years), I find it hard to get all too excited about a race in a CD where the sides are so unbelievably entrenched and the one party has a pretty much guaranteed hypermajority. The winner of the special race will serve until January, 2019. I find the upcoming race in Georgia-06 next week to be much more interesting, with John Osoff providing a very fresh new face for the Democratic Party. Plus, the demographic changes in the Atlanta suburbs should be a wake-up call to Democrats to know where to plant the next seeds of success. Overall, Democrats should be investing heavily in Georgia and Arizona for the future (27 electoral votes, roughly another Florida...), but that is the stuff for another thread very soon. When the prelim-results come in, I will post them here. -Stat
Well the only upsides for the Dems here is that the district includes our biggest city Wichita. Also it is a college town so if they are going to build any type of organisation it would start there. Of course that is not going to happen, the Dem party here in Kansas is a joke. They could not organised a Tupperware party let alone a successful campaign.
It was a pretty damned fine Tupperware party, to the tune of 46% for the Democrat in a race where he should not have come in over 30%....
So, Estes (R) won, as expected, but the margin is amazing: Here the KS SOS link (a temp link): 2017 Unofficial Kansas Election Results The exact stats to date: Estes (R): 52.53% Thompson (D): 45.75% Rockhold (L): 1.72% current margin: Estes +6.78% Remember, the narrowest GOP margin in the last 25 years was in 2002, GOP +22.33%. And in 2016, Pompeo's margin was +31.07%, so in just 5 months time, this CD just swung 24.29 points to the LEFT. Thompson's almost 46% of the vote is the best showing for a Democrat since Dan Glickman's 51.7% in 1992. Of course, as is usually the case with special elections, voter turnout was down, but the margins are what counts. But just to compare: 103,000 less Republican votes were cast in 2017 vis-a-vis 2016, while only 26,000 less Democratic votes were cast in 2017 vis-a-vis 2016, so yeah, voter turnout among Republicans was extremely depressed. I bet that the Democrats never thought they would do this well in this CD. Strong possibility that Thompson positions himself for a run again in 2018. -Stat
Didn't you bet the farm on Hillary's landslide? Wasn't Texas in play? Why should anyone believe you. Wiki showed us the media DNC collusion, yet you still buy their data.
