I don't usually do actual predictions, but I would say that at the moment England would obviously be firm odds-on favourite for the title, and a better than even bet for the Grand Slam. They've been talking about Scotland's chance for the championship being 'mathematical', which I think is a little harsh (they aren't that far behind that it's a near impossibility, even if it would be a somewhat unrealistic expectation!), but I don't see them beating Wales at the moment. I do see them defending well and keeping the score down, though - I don't think Wales have the creativity behind at the moment to take their defence apart completely and run away with a big score. It is a 3 way fight still, though - there are still 3 teams who could win, even if one of them is odds-on favourite. England should really beat Italy by quite alot, depending on the conditions - if the rain is as bad as it was for Wales in Rome, that could obviously keep the score down. I do think it will be a show down in Cardiff for the title, but with Wales probably needing to win by a reasonable amount. Stranger things have happened, but I think the most likely outcome is for that to be a tight game which neither side dominates, and ends up going within 7 or 8 points either way, with England therefore winning the championship if they don't win the Grand Slam. I don't think England will dominate or destroy Wales, though - they aren't that far ahead in terms of their playing at the moment (Wales are really only behind England in the table because they failed to turn up for the first half against Ireland, and haven't conceded a try since that game). That's the most likely outcome, but nothing's over 'til the fat lady sings, and before the championship, after the Autumn internationals, nobody would have predicted France being without a win and in wooden spoon territory at this stage while Wales sit in second place.
Englands bench won that game, France needed a kicker on the pitch, made the change and killed their attack. Meanwhile England were able to bring on a bench which solidified their scrum, kept their ability to kick points and attack. Lawes was out of position, didn't play well and was sub'd, which worked out. They're still waiting on the 8 to return and the first choice prop Corbisero is still out. I thought Wales looked stodgy in Italy, deserved the win but didn't show much interest in putting them to the sword. I predicted Scotland would come away with a win against the Irish, who've too many critical injuries. ROG is way past his international best and the new fella is only 21 and his first international. England should come away with at least a 15 point difference against Italy, which is going to make Wales' task very hard. Still I expect Wales are going to be very very hard to beat on that last game. Lancaster is turning out to be quite a strategist though, which could make the difference. Finally - Ashton, such a shame he cannot be benched; doesn't tackle and isn't scoring tries. Not much of a winger and needs to be changed. Hopefully he'll get his act together.
The Scotish defence is very impressive and you are right, Wales don't seem to have the flair at the back to create many holes. Surely a Wales win however. I can't say I'm bothered about a Grand Slam, all these games are about getting the 200ish caps England have and making it 400 in time for the next WC. The harder these games, the better, England need a far harder pack and better wingers, these games prepare us moving forward.
The biggest upset for me is seeing the French do so badly. I normally expect them in the middle pair at least. A scottish win IS mathematical. Its the sort of thing that Scots nationalists will bore you to tears over then complain bitterly about a fix when they inevitably fall down. Sitll I have to admit a bias against Scotland, for me they are the 'Bad Sports' of the 6 nations (the opposite being the Gentlemen of Ireland) so I will be cheering on Wales even if it does slightly reduce our chances of winning.
They were very difficult conditions to let loose in, unfortunately, and one or two of our backs in particular really aren't performing at the moment (I'd put Scott Williams in the centre instead of Jamie Roberts, for a start, and probably Liam Williams to replace Cuthbert on the wing to give a chance chance of him and Halfpenny being able to swap full back duties about to give us some more creative and less readable options). I'd also drop Hook altogether - he's a waste of space - and bring Matthew Morgan into the squad as outside half cover for the last 2 games to give him some international experience.
Yeah, I can understand the conditions didn't favour flair, I'd say come the Wales v Eng game, we'll have to go through the normal "Roof on or off" debate and Lancaster will hopefully back his men to play an attacking game (roof on). Is Wales v Scotland in Scotland? They're proving very hard to break down, their defence works very well.
Yup - it's in Scotland (we're 'blues away' this year - it always works out either 'blues home' or 'blues away' for Wales, so it's easy to remember!). The roof on or off thing can be a tricky one - when the roof is closed, the pitch tends to 'sweat' a bit and it and the ball can be much more slippery than would be expected in 'dry' conditions as a result, so the best considerations for running rugby are actually with the roof open, but that obviously depends on it not raining! I suspect both teams will want the best possible conditions for that game - I don't think either will see any benefit in rubbish conditions that would 'level the teams'.
Well I have tickets to Twickers this WE . Taking my nephew who plays in the 2nd row, it's his first time to see England...
Hope it wasn't too much! (sorry - couldn't resist that!) [video=youtube;xMyQ8UsbqmI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMyQ8UsbqmI[/video]
well I Have been completely stuffed over by this one. Serves me right for my hubris. Well done wales! You played a fabulous game
Hubris didn't really cover it buddy - - - Updated - - - Congrats cenydd, well deserved win! That's 3 times recently this has happened to Eng... they don't seem able to deal with that level of aggression and pressure.
I think this year's Six Nations has shown that, of the six major European rugby nations, it is England (again) which has the brightest future. To be so close to winning a major tournament with a team full of kids is a great achievement. And with England being the hosts of the the 2015 World Cup, when this up and coming England team has matured a few more years, England have to be the favourites, or thereabouts, to win it.
True, but then take a look at the ages of most of the Welsh players, and they did win that major tournament, and a Grand Slam the year before!
Wales were lucky to win the Grand Slam in 2012 due to the fact that they were lucky to beat England. If Strettle wasn't wrongly disallowed a try (replays showed he touched it down) in the dying seconds of the match when England were 19-12 down then Wales may not have won the Grand Slam. Wales were very lucky. England's bench in the Six Nations this year was of higher quality than any of the other teams. In my opinion England are well on their way to becoming the team they were in the early Noughties when they dominated world rugby and won the 2003 World Cup. Roll on the 2015 World Cup...... in England.
