As Climate Worsens, a Cascade of Tipping Points Looms

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by skepticalmike, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2018
    Messages:
    203
    Likes Received:
    89
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Gender:
    Male
    [​IMG]


    The red outlined curve represents a blackbody emission spectrum at 294 degrees K. The average surface temperature of the earth is about 288 degrees K or 15 degrees C.

    The blackbody spectrum of the earth with no greenhouse gases has a similar shape with an average temperature of 255 degrees K. or -18 degrees C.

    When greenhouse gases are added to the Earth's atmosphere, the emission spectrum seen from space has the shape of the blue curve with several "bites" taken out of it. This

    is because carbon dioxide, ozone, and methane are emitting radiation at a cooler temperature than the Earth's surface. In the case of carbon dioxide its blackbody radiation

    occurs at the top of the atmosphere where the temperature is 220 degrees K so its radiance is greatly attenuated. Likewise, methane's and ozone's spectrums are attenuated

    to a lesser extent because they radiate from a lower altitude than CO2. In order for the earth-atmosphere system to radiate the same amount of energy to space with a greenhouse, its

    surface temperature must increase.to raise the level of non-attenuated emissions. There is no violation of the conservation of energy, the same amount of energy leaves the earth-atmosphere system as before with no
    greenhouse gases and the solar radiance absorbed by the earth is the same. The radiance of the Earth is decreased in the portions

    of the curve where greenhouse gases emit and it is increased in the other portions.

    Note that carbon dioxide's emission spectrum, and therefore its absorption spectrum, occurs near the peak of the blackbody curve and that is one reason why it is an important greenhouse gas.

    The "bites" taken out of the top of the atmospheric blackbody radiation for the earth have been shown to increase with rising levels of greenhouse gases and the amount of downward radiation

    characteristic of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has increased with rising GH gas levels.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2020
  2. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    1,519
    Likes Received:
    386
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Gender:
    Male
    ^^^ More copy/pasting...
     
  3. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2018
    Messages:
    203
    Likes Received:
    89
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Gender:
    Male
    Those are all my own words and only the graph has been copied. I always acknowledge the source when I copy and paste.
     
  4. bricklayer

    bricklayer Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2011
    Messages:
    7,812
    Likes Received:
    2,046
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Eco-doom predictions always seem to "loom". They're always just over the horizon. That sort of stuff worked for thousands of years until people started living past thirty. I've seen so many eco-doom predictions come and go over the course of the last half century that I've come to find it quite amusing when I encounter young people who haven't been around long enough to see it for what it is. The truth is that it only appeals to them because the solutions proffered by those who perpetrate the hoax allow them to remain in the socialism of their youth.
     
    AFM likes this.
  5. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The 'socialism' of their youth is a fantasy - but you're right, these 'climate solutions' play right into that fantasy. Kill the Rich, while we keep living large and free (ie, not at all socialist).
     
  6. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2018
    Messages:
    203
    Likes Received:
    89
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Gender:
    Male
    The newest climate models exhibit more positive feedback from clouds relative to previous models. Low lying clouds over the Southern ocean seem to be getting thinner, reflecting less sunlight

    away from the earth.




    https://eos.org/articles/latest-cli...s&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz070519
    There is a big difference when 1 or a few individuals predict a gloomy future on a particular issue versus several scientific organizations making a gloomy forecast based on peer-reviewed science.

    The IPCC has generally been conservative in its projections and there is much uncertainty in the future.The uncertainty comes from what the human response to warnings from climate scientists will be and

    from the climate models. The main problem with climate models comes from the uncertainty with how clouds will change with increasing surface temperature and a changing atmosphere.

    I separate the science from the solutions to combat global warming and I know of no evidence that climate science is being corrupted by politics. Why couldn't capitalism thrive with a progressively

    increasing carbon tax?

    This is an article from EOS on "Latest Climate Model Points to Hotter Earth" . Very reflective, low lying clouds above the Southern Ocean are getting thinner as the Earth's surface temperature increases

    and this will allow more sunlight to warm the earth.

    https://eos.org/articles/latest-cli...s&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz070519
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
  7. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2011
    Messages:
    8,041
    Likes Received:
    4,075
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Let's hear of some solutions first before we throw money at the problem. I wouldn't mind my tax dollars going into forestry and wetland management. Or greening the deserts. The ONLY solution is habitat rehabilitation. The only solution. Anything else that works is frosting on the cake... so to speak...
     
  8. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2011
    Messages:
    8,041
    Likes Received:
    4,075
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    A carbon tax huh? Well... I should pay very little compaired to a glass manufacturers energy use or a steel mills energy usage or even a Wal Mart store. I would venture to say that if you wanted to reduce household energy use give me so much a month ..... a livable amount with below average household usage and my electric bill would be zero and energy use would not rise nearly as quickly.
     
  9. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There is only one solution. Stop doing what we're doing. NOW.
     
  10. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2011
    Messages:
    8,041
    Likes Received:
    4,075
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    That can't.... and never will happen.
     
  11. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I think rationing is a great idea. Water, electricity, natural gas, etc. Exceptions for verified medical need. We live under pretty strict water rationing, and it's really no drama at all unless you're the sort of person who waters lawns and ornamental plants or likes to wash cars. Obviously those activities aren't necessary, so the sky doesn't fall. I even manage to grow much of our food, without ever touching a hose (hosing being illegal) or turning on a faucet solely for the purpose of watering plants. Our vegetables get grey water from the kitchen. That which is used to wash foods, rinse plates, soap-free hand washing, etc. Our showers collect the first 'warm up' spray via bucket, also.

    The problem is that people are incredibly lazy, and spoiled rotten when it comes to how all of this stuff looks. They're embarrassed by buckets in sinks and showers, and don't want to do the constant work of emptying them in gardens (or wherever is useful). That's why the planet is dying.
     
  12. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Exactly. But the very worst thing we can do is make it seem okay (via green technologies, which are just bandaids) to keep living this way. We need a hard wake up call, not an excuse to carry on.
     
  13. bricklayer

    bricklayer Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2011
    Messages:
    7,812
    Likes Received:
    2,046
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No one becomes a socialist. There may be a point in time when one realizes that they are a socialist, but we're all born socialists. Everyone is a socialist until they grow up and earn their own money. I'm not surprised when young people prefer socialism; it just a Peter Pan Syndrome. It's a desire to remain in the socialism of their youth.
     
  14. bricklayer

    bricklayer Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2011
    Messages:
    7,812
    Likes Received:
    2,046
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Who, or how many, people proffer an idea may get me to consider the idea, but it plays absolutely no part in my assessment of the idea itself.
     
  15. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    94,603
    Likes Received:
    25,377
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The only ‘proven’ effect in climate science are first order principles. How they work in a non-linear chaotic system is not known and a whole different thing.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
  16. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2011
    Messages:
    8,041
    Likes Received:
    4,075
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    My water bill is zero as long as usage is under 2000 gallons a month. I have two cement ponds and several pools for water storage. It will get me through the dry season with no fancy technology. It is enough to last through the dry season.
     
  17. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    1,519
    Likes Received:
    386
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Gender:
    Male
    So we're all supposed to play the childhood "freeze" game??

    Oh boy...
     
  18. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    1,519
    Likes Received:
    386
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Gender:
    Male
    Great. Sign me up. So long as I am the person who gets to be the "Chief Distributor" of the rationing. Are you okay with that?

    Lawns need water to grow. Cars need to be properly maintained, and that includes washing/cleaning them.

    Yes they are.

    It isn't falling, nor will it ever fall.

    Sounds like you live in a pretty shitty place with no freedoms. I like America much better.

    The planet is not dying. There is life everywhere.
     
  19. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You're talking about the pretend version. You know, when kids (and underdeveloped adults) simply call themselves socialist, and think that makes them one. As though it's a feeling, not an action. The reason that BS version falls away in maturity is because it's not real to start with. Actual socialism (which is an action, not a feeling), can be lifelong. IS lifelong for most of humanity.
     
  20. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Do you not have rainwater tanks? If not, why?
     
  21. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    1) Sure. Go ahead. But you won't get any more than anyone else :)
    2) Lawns themselves aren't necessary. They serve literally no purpose, yet use up enormous amounts of energy and water. And cars don't need to be washed more than once a year or so. Probably not even that frequently. And it can be done by hand, with a single bucket of grey water.
    3) Shitty? Because we're careful with our diminishing water supply? I would have thought NOT being careful with it is far shittier.
    4) Maybe not dying, but will become uninhabitable in many places. Unfortunately for those of you in temperate zones, that means billions moving in to share what's still habitable.
     
  22. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    We've used rainwater collection for decades (water restrictions apply to the water grid, but since it's currently illegal in our area to disconnect from the grid, we're still subject to those laws). You become very good at conserving water when you can see the limits of your supply.
     
  23. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    1,519
    Likes Received:
    386
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Gender:
    Male
    Who says? I am the Chief Distributor, remember? I get to determine who gets what rations, and I'm giving your ration to myself. Sucks to be you, eh?

    Yes they are. Absorbing CO2 and releasing O2 is not a purpose? Assisting with stormwater runoff isn't a purpose? Improving the soil quality (and reducing erosion) isn't a purpose? Air purification isn't a purpose? Air cooling isn't a purpose? Purifying groundwater isn't a purpose? Reducing risk and spread of wildfires isn't a purpose?

    Yes they do. What if birds poop on them? What if they are driven on gravel and get dusty? What if they are driven over road salt? Etc. Etc. Etc. Cars get dirty and need to be washed often. Proper maintenance allows them to last longer.

    Yes, shitty. Sounds like a rather authoritarian place to live.

    It is already uninhabitable (or near uninhabitable) in many places, naturally. Global Warming is a BS theory based on denial of logic, science, and mathematics. It is not possible to warm the Earth by way of IR emitted from Earth's surface.
     
  24. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2011
    Messages:
    8,041
    Likes Received:
    4,075
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Yes, but not enough. I am thinking about Tilapia. God some pretty .... ... and big goldfish but I wanna try Tilapia and aquatic plants. Just built a 94 gallon tank that ain't tested yet and have a portable swimming pool full of water plants like flag iris, Arrohead, Pickeral rush, and water Lilly. If that tank holds I'll set it up. Now is the time of year to get free water. Gotta get the water right.
     
  25. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2013
    Messages:
    34,190
    Likes Received:
    8,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    1) Sorry, that's not how rationing works. It's applied to every household, equally.
    2) Lawns should be replaced with food producing plants. And sorry, I have no idea what you're referring to with your championing of lawns. Did you actually think I meant they should be replaced with concrete? How funny :p
    3) Cars haven't been prone to rust and duco damage from exposure, for years. Modern vehicles can stand out in the weather, never be cleaned, and still look brand new after a good detailing. Even if I didn't know about those technical improvements, I'd know it because we've owned many cars, never garaged any of them, and rarely wash them. There was only one, in 30 years of such practice, which had duco issues .. and it was a vintage pick up.
    4) So you think it's less shitty to run out of water?
     

Share This Page