Cause of Pause in Global Warming

Because one Watt per square meter does not equal one degree Celsius, that's why.

 

The good book of AGW warming claims it to be 0.75 +/-0.25 degrees per Wm^2. The 3.71 W/m^2 should equate to almost 3 degrees claimed for sensitivity. How can both be right?

 

Because while the amount of radiative forcing from CO2 is well known and well understood, there is a lot more uncertainty about how that forcing manifests itself in global temperatures. That's because the climate system is enormously complex, with many feedbacks, some of which are global and some of which are regional. So when we double CO2, we know quite well that we're going to get 3.7 Watts per square meter of forcing. The temperature change caused by that forcing, however, is much less certain.

And that's also why, when doing attribution studies, we concentrate on the amount of forcing from various sources: because it's easier to measure and has less uncertainty that way. Which is one reason (but not the only reason) we know that the current warming is caused by greenhouse gases and not the Sun.

 

Well, on the plus side, at least you can disagree with the alarmist community.

 

No, actually, I don't. And it's the uncertainty in temperatures that drive that agreement. It's likely that the global temperature will be something like 3° C above pre-industrial by 2100. If so, that would be severely damaging to the world and the world economy.

But it's possible that it could be as high as 6°C above pre-industrial by 2100, and that would be absolutely disastrous, and could mean the end of human civilization. Since avoiding that possibility is reasonably cheap, it makes absolute sense to do so -- even if that estimate turns out to be high, as is likely.

 

How is 3C going to be damaging when we see very small increases in the daily highs, and the warming measurements are rising because of the daily lows?

 

It's not just temperature. It's also sea level rise, species extinction, more frequent droughts and floods, and more frequent weather extremes of all kinds. And that adds up to a lot of damage.

 

Because the oceans are warming we are seeing massive Algae Blooms as well as massive growth of Jelly Fish.

The Jelly Fish Problem is a big one as they are killing huge numbers of young fish.

As well Red Tides are much more prevalent and this kills sea life of all kinds in great numbers.

Because of Global Warming areas in the Alaskan Arctic Ocean that were once mostly pack ice where wales would find refuge from Killer Whales no longer has this ice and the number of Killer Whales in increasing dramatically and they are able to locate and kill larger whales that they could not get to before.

AboveAlpha

 

Yet with all the warming, we aren't seeing much sheet ice melt.

Can you prove droughts are different than the past centuries of cycles?

Worse flooding is being caused by man's blocking of river flows.

Sea level rises are pretty small, and probably would occur anyway.

I'm sorry, I don't buy the hype as anything threatening.