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COMPLETE COLLAPSE–> Nate Silver: No One Should be Surprised if Democrats Only Pick Up 19 Seats and F

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Gatewood, Nov 5, 2018.

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  1. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    Not really IMO. He was pretty much bang on the money regarding the popular vote (as were most of the more reputable polling organisations).

    He also gave Donald Trump a 23% chance of becoming President which reflected what happened. President Trump carried a number of critical states, against general expectation, by small margins.
     
    The Don, Dec 5, 2018
    #226
  2. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    If you are saying people are rats I take issue. It's an insult to rats, especially with conservatives.
     
    Aleksander Ulyanov, Dec 5, 2018
    #227
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  3. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Yeah.

    BUT, in 2008 he had 49 of 50 States predicted correctly, and in 2012 it was 50 out of 50.

    So by the standards of 2008 and 2012, 2016 was an Epic FAIL for Silver.
     
    Andrew Jackson, Dec 6, 2018
    #228
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  4. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    That is deserved praise for FiveThirtyEight, that only erred slightly in overestimating Republican performance.

     
    Natty Bumpo, Dec 7, 2018
    #229
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    2018-11-029 END tallies D net 40 (43 minus 3).png
     
    Statistikhengst, Dec 8, 2018
    #230
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Statistikhengst, Dec 8, 2018
    #231
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    2018-11-029 END tallies D net 40 (43 minus 3).png
     
    Statistikhengst, Dec 8, 2018
    #232
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    2018-11-029 END tallies D net 40 (43 minus 3).png
     
    Statistikhengst, Dec 8, 2018
    #233
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This thread is amusing
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018
    Statistikhengst, Dec 8, 2018
    #234
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Not true. Your entire posting is based on untruths, also known as bald-faced lies.

    Examples:

    In MN-01, he prognisticated a 0.5% race. It was a 0.5% race
    In OH-01, he prognisticaed Chabot (R-inc) +5.4. Chabot won by +4.7
    In CA-10, he prognosticated Harder (D) by between +4.2 and +5. Harder won by +4.5
    In GA-07, he prognisticated Woodall by +5.2. Woodall won by +0.3
    In IA-03, he prognisticated Axne +3. She won by +2.2
    IN CA-39, he prognisticated Cisneros (D) by +1.4. Cisneros won by +1.6
    In IL-14, he prognosticated Underwood (D) by +3. She won by +4.6
    In KY-06, he prognosticated Barr (R-inc) by +1. Barr won by +3
    In MI-08, he prognosticated Slotkin +3.1. She won by +3.8
    In FL-26, he prognosticated between a total tie and Murcasel-Powell +1. She won by +1.7
    In PA-06, he prognosticated Houlahan +18. She won by +18
    In PA-01, he prognosticated Fitzpatrick (R) by +1.5. He won by +2.5
    In NC-09, he prognosticated between McCready +0.6 and Harris +0.4. Harris is leading by +0.3, but the race will not be certified since the Republicans committed electoral fraud and a number of people will end up in prison for 5 years or more.
    In WA-08, he prognosticated Shrier +3.4. She won by +5

    And so on and so on and so on.

    The only races where Silver really missed it were races where most people thought the R would win, but the D won, for instance:

    OK-05, he prognosticated Russell (R) +10. Horn (D) won by +1.4
    NY-11, he prognosticateed Donovan (R) +5.4. Rose (D) won by +6.0
    SC-01, he prognosticated Arrington (R) +9, Cunningham (D) won by +1.4
    TX-32, he prognosticated Sessions (R) +2.3. Allred (D) won by +6.4

    Those four races were not even on the radar going into election night.

    And so on and so on and so on. If anything, Silver's composite and his weightings on top had a slight CONSERVATIVE mathematical bias, not a LIBERAL mathematical bias.

    He nailed almost every single CD he indicated as a battleground CD.

    No one in 2018 was as accurate as Nate Silver was. Must be terrible to be you, talking out the wrong orifice in your body instead of using your brain to think like a rational human being.
     
    Statistikhengst, Dec 8, 2018
    #235
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  11. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    MrTLegal, Dec 8, 2018
    #236
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  12. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Your empirical data lends it respectability. Thank you!

    It's now looking as if Democrats will pick up 41 seats.
     
    Natty Bumpo, Dec 8, 2018
    #237
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This is a possibility, but I don't report it until it happens.

    Actually, with 2 GOP reps under indictment (Collins in NY-27 and Hunter in CA-50), plus with the burgeoning scandal around Ross Spano in FL-16, there is the off possibility that the Ds actually pick up one or two more seats beyond that. Analysis to follow.
     
    Statistikhengst, Dec 8, 2018
    #238
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  14. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    If you count all of the seats that the Dems picked up in Special Elections and the Off Year elections it comes to almost 50 in the House.
     
    Derideo_Te, Dec 8, 2018
    #239
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  15. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    BALLOT HARVESTING

    How a liberal hodad who don't surf defeats a surfer in "Surf City USA, " where surfers outnumber liberal hodads and where Republicans outnumber Democrats and where Trump has over a 50% approval rating.

    [​IMG]
    https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/...tion-of-trump-cost-republicans-orange-county/
     
    APACHERAT, Dec 8, 2018
    #240
  16. randlepatrickmcmurphy

    randlepatrickmcmurphy Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    randlepatrickmcmurphy, Dec 8, 2018
    #241
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  17. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    US Conservative, Dec 8, 2018
    #242
  18. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    US Conservative, Dec 8, 2018
    #243
  19. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHA!

    Your source is an extremist RW BLOG with ZERO CREDIBILITY!

    He did NOT identify that there was anything illegal either.

    Furthermore he just pointed out that Dems were BETTER MOTIVATED AND ORGANIZED which is why they kicked the GOP's ass in Orange County.

    You need to UP YOUR GAME if you want to still win elections because that is exactly what the Dems did.
     
    Derideo_Te, Dec 9, 2018
    #244
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  20. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What is illegal in the other states and even a felony, the socialist in Sacramento have made legal in California, ballot harvesting.

    Not to mention California's DMV registering non citizens including illegal aliens to vote and they got caught.

    But for some really strange reason California's Attorney General refuses to do anything about it.

    I wonder what Abraham Lincoln would have done ?
     
    APACHERAT, Dec 9, 2018
    #245
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  21. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Only when you count the absentee ballots and provisional ballots that weren't cast at the precinct polls.

    Only in California can you three hours after the polls have closed and the winners were declared that you can go down and register to vote and then cast your ballot and change an outcome of an election.
     
    APACHERAT, Dec 9, 2018
    #246
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  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    No. Quite wrong.
    The largest D pickups since 1974.
     
    Statistikhengst, Dec 9, 2018
    #247
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This is a lie. A very bald-faced lie. The California SOS calls no winners until the final canvasses are in, usually 1 month after the election.
     
    Statistikhengst, Dec 9, 2018
    #248
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Yes, this thread is really quite amusing.
     
    Statistikhengst, Dec 9, 2018
    #249
  25. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The MSM calls the winners.

    Not to long ago if you remember the MSM use to call the winners while the polls were still open and people were still casting their votes.



    Last month in Los Angeles County the media declared that Sheriff Jim McDonnell had won reelection after the polls had closed.
    In fact Sheriff McDonnell did win at the polling precincts but California' new voting laws allows wannabe voters to register and vote after the polling places have closed and today there's a new Sheriff in town who just took the oath of Sheriff and right after taking the oath declared he wasn't going to uphold the oath of Sheriff and defend and protect the U.S. Constitution and will not cooperate with federal law enforcement officers.

    [​IMG]
     
    APACHERAT, Dec 9, 2018
    #250
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