COMPLETE COLLAPSE–> Nate Silver: No One Should be Surprised if Democrats Only Pick Up 19 Seats and F

That just REEKS of right-wing DESPERATION!

Here is Silver's actual final prediction for the Midterms.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-the-house-but-theyre-pretty-clear-favorites/

Silver is given the Dems a BETTER CHANCE of winning the House than the GOP has of winning the Senate!

Factual data defeats right-wing disinformation every time!

 

Yeah. Sorry. I keep forgetting that facts and accurate spelling are something foreign to many Americans.

Oh, and its Australia. Note capitalization & number of 'i's.

 

Ah. Another one of those finely crafted arguments conservatives are now known for.
Care to evenly remotely argue bigfella's rebuttal to the OPs wildly mischaracterized article?

 

You just know that isn't happening.

 

I very seldom drink. You didn't answer my post but went into another rhetorical rant about the thread. Hint, the first post didn't work. Your post was literally Silver is right because he says he is a genius. I will have a little really good sipping whiskey with my smoked rib-eye from a beef we bought from ranch down the road and baked potato tomorrow night while we watch the elections on two 52" flat screens in my living room. (I still have to work out the audio situation with the sound system. Moving one from the bedroom.) One will be Fox News and one will be CNN of MSNBC, just in case this turns out to be 2016 and we can be amused by all the whining and gnashing of teeth by the Democrats. The 2016 election (where Silver predicted a more than 70% chance that Clinton would win) was a night to remember. Maybe we will get a repeat. I actually expect the house to go to the Democrats but we won't know until tomorrow night. Either way it will be a nice night with a good dinner and some good whiskey.

 

Hmmmm...so you are an Aussie too?

 

Yep. Avatar is a bit of a hint. That Heals in yours?

 

Eat eucalyptus leaves there.

 

Love it.

 

Nate is probably wrong. He hedges his statements and is extremely vague on how he does his predictions. Most of the pollsters that he uses are democrat pollsters. Other organizations use pure numbers to compare the accuracy of pollsters as opposed to Silver that uses calculations that are based on what he thinks should influence a poll intertwined with accuracy numbers to come up with some magical formula that only Nate could come up with. After 2016 he has no validity to fall back on. He has to earn that and so far he is making the same mistakes he made in 2016.

 

Your men are gone. Like Britain.

 

......and stupid Americans. Pretty much inexhaustible food supply.

 

I'll take your refusal to discuss the wildly inaccurate tone of your initial post to me as the closest thing to an admission of being wrong as you are capable of.

 

Why stop there, maybe you can get him arrested for the Kennedy assassination. Jesus Dude, You got Trump living in your head rent free. Al Capone? The Tax Man?? You need to get over the election man. Its over, Trump won, and he will be there for the next 6 years. If you want a look into the future watch your TV tomorrow night. Its going to be a rerun of the 2016 election.

 

I gave you an accurate and specific argument about your posts and you say that I refuse to discuss your post. Is that your way of waving a white flag?

 

The OP is innumerate, you, on the other hand are illiterate.
I NEVER even remotely touched on SIlver, or his predictive powers. My point was how absolutely and totally misleading the OPs article was.
I do not like Silver, I think his polls are noncomittal at best, and I agree with you that his explanations to his methodology are lacking. there clearly is a lot of jiggering the numbers to try to get an official poll when there just isn't enough input data to make a 'real' poll. Seeing his overall succes will be meaningless, as every outcome is in fact 'predicted' (from dems at +54 to repubs at +10) I will be looking closely to how his predictions in individual races gel with reality to see how he is doing.
Maybe if you didn't post 9 posts in a row with memes and insults I would have taken the one and only post you made about the actual thread discussion more seriously.

 

Think it is Wade, not sure.

 

No, you gave a wildly inaccurate account of my initial post and, entirely predictably, refuse to acknowledge that misrepresentation.

 

The article was about how Silver is (dishonestly) buying himself some fudge factor just in case his predictions are wrong. I think he hasn't changed his methodology so he is probably wrong again.

 

You are talking to someone who has no dog in the fight. I am not American, and do not live in the US.

 

Lefties never seen it coming.

 

Your post was about why you think Nate Silver is right to think Nate Silver is right compared to some right wing site. You didn't offer any analyses other than "extreme" right wing site while citing 538's site as back up to your argument. I offered my opinion about why Nate sucks and predictions. He is trying to hedge his predictions just in case he is totally wrong again. It won't work. If he hits it wrong this time his twitter post about the 19 seats won't be enough to dig his credibility out of a hole.

 

They are called democrats. Please make note.

 

I have already explained what my post was about. The post itself was very easy to understand for anyone with an adult reading age & not blinded by political partisanship. The only thing I claimed Silver was 'right' about was his own opinion, which the OP completely misrepresented. Not that hard to understand really.

 

Wasn't aware you were a Democrat. You'd be stripped to the bone within minutes here.