Current senate races based on RCP

Using exp for each battle ground state, similar to this:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html

The current battle ground states, with their current part affiliation first, are listed below along with their average lead. Also have added in the numbers from before the Kavanaugh trial on Sept 23, since both sides are claiming victory there.

State — current party — current RCP lead - lead on Sept 21st.

Arizona — R — 1.8 D — 2.5 D

Tennessee — R — 2.7 R — Even

Florida — D — 2.4 D — 0.35 R

Indiana — D — 4.0 D — 5.2 D

Missouri — D — 0.4 R — 0.6 R

Montana — D — 3.0 D — 4.2 D

Nevada — R — 1.2 D — 3.7 D

North Dakota — D — 8.7 R — 9.6 R

Texas — R — 6.0 R — 4.2 R

W Virginia — D — 9.4 D — 8.5 D

Looking at the two numbers, it looks like since the trial started we have.

Arizona — 0.7 R

Tennessee — 2.7 R

Florida — 2.75 D

Indiana — 1.2 R

Missouri — 0.2 D

Montana — 1.2 R

Nevada — 2.5 R

North Dakota — 0.9 D

Texas — 1.9 R

W Virginia — 0.9 D

So what do you think these numbers represent? Is there any info anyone has that will debate the RCP numbers?

Do you think 6 senate races moving more R and 4 moving more D and by an average (of the 10 states) of 0.545 per state to the Right.

Is this because of the trial? Coincidence? More based on state by state? Other reason?

Was chillin and wanted to look at the data I could conpilw on the matter I was very curious of.

Let me know what ya think!

 

If the TN race stays in Blackburn's column, there is (obviously) zero chance of the Dems getting 51.

Blackburn's bump has been huge.

 

I did this because I truthfully didn’t really know EXACTLY what was going on. Been busy with work and haven’t put enough time into the races to understand fully.

Is there something else that caused the bump in Tennessee or any other races with “big events” other than the Kavanaugh trial in the last few weeks?

 

The TN Senate race polling is the most dramatic example of the Kavanaugh Backlash hurting the Dems.

Also, Bredesen's age (almost 75) is becoming a factor.

 

Also:

With the elections, I was showing 46R and 43 D.

If we take RCP as gospel, 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans will win. I was confused as I was missing something, I didn’t notice the Mississippi runoff.

Most polls have R’s at +15 or higher so I think that is a done deal.

So we have 47R — 43D

If RCP holds, 6 Dems and 4 Reps are added.

Making he total the same as it is now

51 Republicans

49 Democrats

Interesting ....

 

Oh wow, that is only the RCP average.

You are right, current polling has R up by anywhere from 5 — 8.

Damn, I guess you are right that it may be the end game

 

Jesus do I hate polls....

Do they even mean anything anymore?

You can still see each state to be around +\- 4-7% which is a HUGE discrepancy

If I had to guesss, it’s going to be:

51R — 49D
Or
52R — 48D

But especially after the fiasco that was 2016 Presidential Election and looking at the “all over the place” polls, I am unlikely to trust anything....

Should be an interesting election!

 

The reservations people had about admitting that they will vote for President Trump back in 2016 are still present in 2018. Because of the consequences of bigotry, such as risks ranging from losing job to losing life, there are a significant number of people who simply do not want to publicize their intentions to vote Republican for fear of backlash from the mob. Its been called the silent majority. Silent they are. Whether or not they are a majority will be made clear in 31 days. But should the Republicans hold the House and Senate it will prove that President Trump's waveform continues and that a message of decency, security, prosperity, and civility will have withstood the lawless intimidation and information manipulation tactics of the well funded mob.

 

OUCH:

 

There is no mob. This is the latest right wing meme to stoke the palpable fear of the angry white Trumpster crowd. A crowd that is not long on courage, but will blindly follow a con man who beats his chest and talks like a drunk truck driver.

 

That and he is a Schumer lap dog.

 

Damn you have your talking points down.
https://www.louderwithcrowder.com/v...bs-and-media-too-afraid-to-admit-theyre-mobs/

Keep Controlling the Record!

 

RCP has the GOP currently projected at 50 Senate seats after the election with Arizona still up in the air, but the AZ GOP candidate at +6 in the latest poll (done by ABC).

If this holds and at least 1 of the 6 toss ups goes GOP, game over! I could see the GOP actually increasing to 52 or 53 seats after this election.

 

And as of today it's 5 - 8 - 14(latest NYT poll). Stick a fork in Bredesen, he is cooked. I suppose the good people of Tennessee don' like the mob rule after all, choose evidence over faith-based lynching and don't believe a word of lying democrat politicians, especially when their staffers admit that they don't mean what they say and are just fooling the deplorables to get elected and become loyal Schumer's soldiers.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...nessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html

 

The most recent supreme court nominee was appointed by a president who earned fewer votes than his political opponent, was confirmed by senators who represented millions of fewer citizens than those represented by the senators who voted against him. And of course, the percentage of individuals who supported the candidate himself was less than the percentage of individuals who did not support that individual. So your notion that the minority are being oppressed by the majority is completely bunk.

Oh, and the funding to support him was millions of dollars greater than the funding against his support - so there goes your "well funded" argument as well.

Also, to address the "shy voter" argument, Trump outperformed his polling by an average of about one percent. So there is some rationale for arguing that some individuals do not publicly want to admit their support for someone who is such a brazenly whiny snowflake of a bitch that is also a ****ing moron. But Trump ain't on the ballot in 2018. And if you can't publicly stand by your nominee for local, state, or federal employment because of a defect in that person's character, then I suggest you pick a new candidate to support.

 

News Flash the Electoral College is how we elect Presidents.. this is hardly a new thing no matter how many walls of meaningless text you throw up. Polls dont elect politicians people casting votes do..

Another news flash for you.

 

It had a big impact in ND too.

 

Folk in TN tend to not make snap decisions. As we're getting closer to the election, folks here are recognizing that mr Bredeson is still the same guy they happily watched leave 8 years ago. And that his brand of "business" isn't good for TN. They recognize that if they vote for him, that suddenly Dianne Feinstein starts picking our SCOTUS justices, that Bernie Sanders starts writing the budget, and Chuck Schumer runs it all. Framing the conversation that way has energized the folks in TN. Expect Marsha to win.

 

Sorry, but obscure right wing trash blogs have zero credibility, even though they tell you exactly what you've already decided to believe.

 

Nothing "obscure" about them.. They have video to watch.. You can watch it or whine and cover your eyes... Up to you.

 

Wait! They have videos! HOLY ****!

You know who else has videos?

#FlatEarthConfirmed

 

Yes they show your loving media.... Nice smear at the end... FFS you will never learn.

 

that's the most well thought out & honest 'butt hurt' speech i've read to date...

 

...thanks?

 

You know who has videos that could help you learn the truth?

#HollowEarthConfirmed