http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-clinton-florida-ohio-pennsylvania-222994 Clinton and Trump appear to be in a virtual tie in FL, OH, and PA. If Trump is able to defend Romney's map and take these 3 states it brings him to 273. I think this is the most likely path to the nomination for Trump. The old path was FL, OH, VA, and CO. However, VA and CO appear to be trending blue thanks to liberal expansion into the DC metropolitan area and Hispanic/hippie expansion in CO.