Debunking a JFK Mysterious Witness Death Lone Nutter

Discussion in 'JFK' started by Richard Charnin, Aug 9, 2013.

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  1. Richard Charnin

    Richard Charnin New Member

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    Consider the following post. It is classic disinformation from top to bottom. http://www.vectorsite.net/twjfk_32.html

    We will focus on the author’s witness death analysis and show that he does not understand the problem, much less how to create a mathematical model to solve it. By proving a conspiracy mathematically, everything all of his other claims should be dismissed as pure propaganda.

    The author used the term “conspiracists” in a derogatory sense. Lone Nutters are shameless “disinformationists” with no regard for the truth. The “right question” was wrong. He did not correctly define the problem, much less understand the math.

    He did not do his homework and just repeated the usual Lone nutter talking points. His problem statement was incomplete. The lack of specificity is the “tell” that he does not understand the problem. He failed to consider a) an actual number of material witnesses, b) a precise actual time period, c) unnatural mortality rates, d) the method of calculation.

    The correct problem definition is: Given a group of N people, what are the odds that at least n members of the group will die unnaturally within T years?

    But the most fundamental flaw was that by focusing on the relevance of the witnesses in Jim Marr’s list, he did not consider the paradigm shift in thinking about the problem:WHY the witnesses died is IRRELEVANT.

    The relevant factors are how many witnesses were called to testify, how many died, their cause of death and the time period. In fact, from 1964-77 there were approximately 800 witnesses called in four investigations, of whom at least 56 died (34 unnaturally, 23 homicides). The probability of at least 56 deaths is 1 in 38,000 trillion.

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