So if the polls are showing things being tied up for the most part.... How is an Obama win even close with Oversampling of democrats Low democratic voter turnout for early voting compared to 2008 Obama playing defense while Romney is entering into new territory Independents swaying into double digit territory for Romney I just dont understand how Democrats even think its a tie right now let alone Obama with the lead. This is kind of irrelevent but Ive also talked to many of my democrat friends and they are not only rejecting Obama but are voting for Romney....something I did not think I would ever see. Clearly there is a disinterest in Obama and I would be shock if they were rare cases. I just dont get the whole razor thin margin thing going on other than TV ratings.
1. There is no over sampling of Democrats. There are simply more registered Democrats then Indies, or Repubs. This was caused by the large exodus from being a 'registered Republican' in the '06-'10 era. They lost alot of clout during that time frame and no one is talking about it for whatever reason. Now those conservative voters are still there. They are just in the Tea Party/Libertarian wing and will probably still vote against Obama as "independents". That is where that huge lead in indies comes from for Mitt. 2. There is not 'low' democratic turnout, but there is less then there was 4 years ago. People forget how bad the shellacking the Repubs really got in '08. A) Obama won the national popular vote: 69,456,897, to 59,934,814. Garnering a little over 52% of the electorate. McCain won only 45% . (Obviously it gets a little more complex then this but Democrats can definitely win with these turnouts thus far, they just wont have the extra seats in the house & senate like they did in '08 ) B) Even if the Dems LOST 5 MILLION voters over the past four years (Would be the largest loss in history and unlikely regardless of who you ask) and the Repubs GAIN 5 MILLION voters (Would be the largest gain in history, and also unlikely) it would still be a virtual TIE. Think about that for a second. The GOP has to break 2 records..... to be even. 3. A) Romney is not 'entering new territory'. The strategy is called 'expanding the map'. Romney's own internal polling motivated him to stop campaigning in PA and MI in September. Believing he had better prospects in VA, NC NH, CO, and IA. Which he did, even though he was down in most state polls in those states. And winning those states would give him enough votes to win outright. But recently the polls have not been favorable in states other then FL or NC. So he expanded into PA and MI again looking to see if he could get anything going. Desperation tactic really. Especially if you had not spent any money in the state in over two months. B) Obama is playing 'defense' because he is winning... by alot. He already has a pretty solid pathway to victory established, of the 11 'toss up' states Obama leads in 9, NH and CO are within the margin of error in his favor and FL is in the margin of error in Romney's favor. And because of his fairly large lead in Ohio he has a really flexible map and no need to expand into solid red states like GA, SC, IN, or AZ. Along with the fact that they are still 'contesting' in NC, and FL, the only two battlegrounds they have not had a consistent lead in since the begging of the election. So pretty Much Obama saw he had about 300 Electoral votes favoring him so he solidified his standing in those states and ensured they would be there for him come Nov. and the plan had worked pretty well. And you are right. This race is not close. Never was. Romney had not been winning at any point. Some national polls favored him but at not point in time was he winning in enough state polls to point to a electoral college victory. Obama has polled better then him in all of the states Obama needs to win, therefore Obama is the favorite.
I understand what your saying but I just cant buy it. Maybe just a gut feeling. If the polls are sampling more democrats than republicans how does that matter to my initial post? If Obama is winning so much why give up states to Romney ala NC? If there is less dem turnout than 2008 how is that not lower? If Romney is entering into states that where thought to be unwinable how is that not new territory. I dont think either cadidate is stupid and wants to lose. Obvioussly Romney thinks he can win those states.
Whether you choose to 'buy it' is completely up too you. But there are several places you can go access this information. I get most of my polling information from the following two places http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard and here http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ I dont think I can explain the sampling and voter turnout thing any better. The turnout from '08 was so LARGE that it was unlikely for Obama to receive that many votes again regardless. Even with if its 2 million less, do you really see Romney catching up and acquiring 9 million new voters to catch up? Doubtful and the polls have shown that. I never said Obama gave up any state to Romney. He has been pursing NC since day one. But of course Romney can 'win' those states but why would he stop campaigning in them in the first place if he thought his prospect where so good there?
The thing is, it's not just about general turnout or registered anything. It's about battleground states, plain and simple. If there is massive lower turnout one the East coast due to Sandy, or people in California decide not to show up, it simply won't matter to Obama's final bottom line. The same goes for Romney if Texas, Georgians and Utes decide not to show up. The primary concerns of the candidates is turnout in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Colorado and others. Those are the states where turnout is important.
The polls are not sampling more Democrats. Polls do not deliberately sample any party. Polls simply report how the random sample identified themselves. If the poll reports more Democrats, it's because more people in the random sample identified themselves as Democrats. The fact that more people are identifying themselves as Democrats is good news for Democrats, and that's one factor making Obama the heavy favorite. He's not. We've heard this myth over and over about Obama giving up certain states, and it's never true. For example, we were breathlessly told Obama had abandoned Virginia, yet Obama is now the favorite in Virginia. Don't rely on Drudge rumors.
