Does quantitative easing really work?

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by Bic_Cherry, May 8, 2018.

  1. james M

    james M Banned

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    yes it grew but not enough to end the Great Depression,great poverty and great hardship;


    ****Here's what Henry Morgenthau, FDR's Secretary of the Treasury (the man who desperately needed the New Deal to succeed as much as Roosevelt) said about the New Deal stimulus: "We have tried spending money.We are spending more than we ever have spent before and it does not work... We have never made good on our promises...I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!"

    "The New Republic"( at the time a FDR greatest supporter") noted. In June 1939, the federal public works programs still supported almost 19 million people, nearly 15% of the population" [page 313]

    In fact in 1939, unemployment was at 17%, and there were 11 million additional in stimulus make work welfare jobs. Today when the population is 2.5 times greater we have only 8 million unemployed. Conclusion: legislation to make Democrats illegal
    is urgently needed
     
  2. james M

    james M Banned

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    so FDR did not preside over Great Depression with his idiotic policies???
     
  3. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Year - GDP $2009 - % chng
    1929 1,055.6
    1930 965.8 -8.5%
    1931 904.1 -6.4%
    1932 787.5 -12.9%
    1933 777.6 -1.3% <- FDR takes office, implements "New Deal".
    1934 861.4 +10.8%
    1935 938.2 +8.9%
    1936 1,059.6 +12.9%

    See the years with the percentages with "-" in front of it? 1930-1933?

    That means the economy was contracting and shrinking. The years with the "+" in front of it are years the economy was growing.

    Do you get it? Do you understand now? Are you still confused?
     
  4. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    He was talking about a relatively mild recession in 1938, after the government cut spending in 1937.
     
  5. james M

    james M Banned

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  6. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No. The actual depression was 1929 - 1932. That is when the economy crashed by an astounding 25% real. FDR presided over the time the country was recovering from the Great Depression. Because the depression was so sever, it took a number of years before the economy recovered. Most put it around 1939, when government stimulus from WWII created millions of jobs for industry.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  7. james M

    james M Banned

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    yes growing but at a tiny rate, less production in 1939 than in 1929 and 17% unemployment in 1939. That why it was called Great Depression!! OMG!!!
     
  8. james M

    james M Banned

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    Welcome to your ABC's

    The Great Depression
    The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression that took place mostly during the 1930s, beginning in the United States.Wikipedia

    Period: October 29, 1929 – 1939


    Great Depression: Causes & Effects | HISTORY.com
    www.history.com/topics/great-depression
    The Great Depression was the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialized world, lasting from 1929 to 1939. It began after the stock market crash of October 1929, which sent Wall Street into a panic and wiped out millions of investors.
    Great Depression Videos · ‎Great Depression Pictures · ‎New Deal · ‎Speeches

    Great Depression: What Happened, Causes, How It Ended
    https://www.thebalance.com/the-great-depression-of-1929-3306033
    Mar 5, 2018 - The Great Depression of 1929 was a 10-year global economic crisis. Here are causes, impact, and chances of recurrence.
    Great Depression Timeline · ‎Effects of the Great Depression · ‎When Did the Great ...
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  9. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Growing at 9-12% real per year is "tiny"?

    See why we say conservativism is based in pure ignorance?

    Do you get it? Are you still confused? Do you understand now?
     
  10. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That is the effects of the great depressions. As I noted above, the economic collapse in 1929-32 was so severe that it took years to recover from.

    The actual period of economic collapse was 1929-32. That turned around in 1933 when FDR took office and by 1934 the economy was growing.

    I showed you economic the data which you have not refuted. It's from BEA.

    Do you get it now? Are you still confused? Do you understand now?
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  11. james M

    james M Banned

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    ??????Its what all economists call the Great Depression 1929-1939. Recovery is a year if you let capitalism correct distortions caused by govt interventions. More interventions prolong the depression as FDR and soviets found out.
     
  12. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    From your source:

    By its height in 1933 ...
    https://www.thebalance.com/the-great-depression-of-1929-3306033

    By 1933, when the Great Depression reached its lowest point, ...
    https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression

    Both your sources corroborate the BEA economic data I posted. 1933 was the lowest point of the recession, the year FDR took office and the economy turned around.

    But of course it took years to grow out of.
     
  13. james M

    james M Banned

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    you showed economy grew from state of absolute collapse not that it grew enough get unemployment under 35% for example. Big difference.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  14. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    From your source:

    Hoover, a Republican who had formerly served as U.S. secretary of commerce, believed that government should not directly intervene in the economy, and that it did not have the responsibility to create jobs or provide economic relief for its citizens.

    Hoover tried to let capitalism "correct distortions".

    The result was 25% unemployment, 5000 banks failing, millions losing their life savings, 25% real decrease in GDP.

    But it bottomed out in 1933 with Roosevelt's New Deal and started growing in 1934.

    Do you get it? Are you still confused? Do you understand now?
     
  15. james M

    james M Banned

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    of course it never grew out thanks to constant interventions and thus became the worst economic management in American History
     
  16. james M

    james M Banned

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    Hoover extended the size and scope of the federal government in six major areas: (1) federal spending, (2) agriculture, (3) wage policy, (4) immigration, (5) international trade, and (6) tax policy.

    Consider federal government spending. (See Fiscal Policy.) Federal spending in the 1929 budget that Hoover inherited was $3.1 billion. He increased spending to $3.3 billion in 1930, $3.6 billion in 1931, and $4.7 billion and $4.6 billion in 1932 and 1933, respectively, a 48% increase over his four years. Because this was a period of deflation, the real increase in government spending was even larger: The real size of government spending in 1933 was almost double that of 1929.5 The budget deficits of 1931 and 1932 were 52.5% and 43.3% of total federal expenditures. No year between 1933 and 1941 under Roosevelt had a deficit that large.6 In short, Hoover was no defender of “austerity” and “budget cutting.”

    Shortly after the stock market crash in October 1929, Hoover extended federal control over agriculture by expanding the reach of the Federal Farm Board (FFB), which had been created a few months earlier.7 The idea behind the FFB was to make government-funded loans to farm cooperatives and create “stabilization corporations” to keep farm prices up and deal with surpluses. In other words, it was a cartel plan. That fall, Hoover pushed the FFB into full action, lending to farmers all over the country and otherwise subsidizing farming in an attempt to keep prices up. The plan failed miserably, as subsidies encouraged farmers to grow more, exacerbating surpluses and eventually driving prices way down. As more farms faced dire circumstances, Hoover proposed the further anti-market step of paying farmers not to grow.

    On wages, Hoover revived the business-government conferences of his time at the Department of Commerce by summoning major business leaders to the White House several times that fall. He asked them to pledge not to reduce wages in the face of rising unemployment. Hoover believed, as did a number of intellectuals at the time, that high wages caused prosperity, even though the true causation is from capital accumulation to increased labor productivity to higher wages. He argued that if major firms cut wages, workers would not have the purchasing power they needed to buy the goods being produced. As most depressions involve falling prices, cutting wages to match falling prices would have kept purchasing power constant. What Hoover wanted amounted to an increase in real wages, as constant nominal wages would be able to purchase more goods at falling prices. Presumably out of fear of the White House or, perhaps, because it would keep the unions quiet, industrial leaders agreed to this proposal. The result was rapidly escalating unemployment, as firms quickly realized that they could not continue to employ as many workers when their output prices were falling and labor costs were constant.8

    Of all of the government failures of the Hoover presidency—excluding the actions of the Federal Reserve between 1929 and 1932, over which he had little to no influence—his attempt to maintain wages was the most damaging. Had he truly believed in laissez-faire, Hoover would not have intervened in the private sector that way. Hoover’s high-wage policy was a clear example of his lack of confidence in the corrective forces of the market and his willingness to use governmental power to fight the depression.

    Later in his presidency, Hoover did more than just jawbone to keep wages up. He signed two pieces of labor legislation that dramatically increased the role of government in propping up wages and giving monopoly protection to unions. In 1931, he signed the Davis-Bacon Act, which mandated that all federally funded or assisted construction projects pay the “prevailing wage” (i.e., the above market-clearing union wage). The result of this move was to close out non-union labor, especially immigrants and non-whites, and drive up costs to taxpayers. A year later, he signed the Norris-LaGuardia Act, whose five major provisions each enshrined special provisions for unions in the law, such as prohibiting judges from using injunctions to stop strikes and making union-free contracts unenforceable in federal courts.9Hoover’s interventions into the labor market are further evidence of his rejection of laissez-faire.

    Two other areas that Hoover intervened in aggressively wereimmigration and international trade. One of the lesser-known policy changes during his presidency was his near halt to immigration through an Executive Order in September 1930. His argument was that blocking immigration would preserve the jobs and wages of American citizens against competition from low-wage immigrants. Immigration fell to a mere 10 to 15% of the allowable quota of visas for the five-month period ending February 28, 1931. Once again, Hoover was unafraid to intervene in the economic decisions of the private sector by preventing the competitive forces of the global labor market from setting wages.10

    Even those with only a casual knowledge of the Great Depression will be familiar with one of Hoover's major policy mistakes—his promotion and signing of the Smoot-Hawley tariff in 1930. This law increased tariffs significantly on a wide variety of imported goods, creating the highest tariff rates in U.S. history. While economist Douglas Irwin has found that Smoot-Hawley’s effects were not as large as often thought, they still helped cause a decline in international trade, a decline that contributed to the worsening worldwide depression.

    Most of these policies continued and many expanded throughout 1931, with the economy worsening each month. By the end of the year, Hoover decided that more drastic action was necessary, and on December 8, he addressed Congress and offered proposals that historian David Kennedy refers to as “Hoover’s second program, ” and that has also been called “The Hoover New Deal.”11 His proposals included:



    The Reconstruction Finance Corporation to lend tax dollars to banks, firms and others institutions in need.



    A Home Loan Bank to provide government help to the construction sector.



    Congressional legalization of Hoover’s executive order that had blocked immigration.



    Direct loans to state governments for spending on relief for the unemployed.



    More aid to Federal Land Banks.



    Creating a Public Works Administration that would both better coordinate Federal public works and expand them.



    More vigorous enforcement of antitrust laws to end “destructive competition” in a variety of industries, as well as supporting work-sharing programs that would supposedly reduce unemployment.

    On top of these spending proposals, most of which were approved in one form or another, Hoover proposed, and Congress approved, the largest peacetime tax increase in U.S. history. The Revenue Act of 1932 increased personal income taxes dramatically, but also brought back a variety of excise taxes that had been used during World War I. The higher income taxes involved an increase of the standard rate from a range of 1.5 to 5% to a range of 4 to 8%. On top of that increase, the Act placed a large surtax on higher-income earners, leading to a total tax rate of anywhere from 25 to 63%. The Act also raised the corporate income tax along with several taxes on other forms of income and wealth.

    Whether or not Hoover's prescriptions were the right medicine—and the evidence suggests that they were not—his programs were a fairly aggressive use of government to address the problems of the depression.12 These programs were hardly what one would expect from a man devoted to “laissez-faire” and accused of doing nothing while the depression worsened.
     
  17. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    [​IMG]

    Unemployment started declining after FDR took office.

    It had a temporary uptick in 1937-38 when government reduced spending. When government started spending again, particularly with WWII, it started falling again.

    Do you get it now? Are you still confused? Do you understand now?
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  18. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I cited your own source.

    Do you get it yet? Are you still confused? Do you understand now?
     
  19. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Of course it grew out of it.

    By 1941 unemployment was down to less than 5%.

    Do you get it yet? Are you still confused? Do you understand now?
     
  20. james M

    james M Banned

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    it fell thanks to make-work welfare jobs not real jobs which is why Depression never ended:

    Here's what Henry Morgenthau, FDR's Secretary of the Treasury said about the New Deal stimulus: "We have tried spending money.We are spending more than we ever have spent before and it does not work... We have never made good on our promises...I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!"

    In fact in 1939, unemployment was at 17%, and there were 11 million additional in stimulus make work welfare jobs. Today when the population is 2.5 times greater we have only 8 million unemployed. Conclusion: legislation to make Democrats illegal
    is urgently needed
     
  21. james M

    james M Banned

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    OMG!! Yes thanks to the world war that FDR's depression caused!!!
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  22. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It did. I showed you the data, which you cannot rebut. If it feell thanks to make-work jobs, those people with jobs and spending money sure didn't care.

    Again, that's the effect of the '37-38 recession caused when the government cut spending.


    Do you get it yet? Are you still confused? Do you understand now?
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  23. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    FDR was not president in 1929. Or 1930. Or 1931. Or 1932. When real GDP fell 25%.

    Do you get it yet? Are you still confused? Do you understand now?
     
  24. james M

    james M Banned

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    yes people on welfare jobs did not care but those starving in the Great Depression who had to pay taxes to support the welfare jobs sure did care. See why we say pure ignorance??
     
  25. james M

    james M Banned

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    wrong of course he said "8 years" ( 1933-1941) you are like a child. Ask yourself to you like seeing people die or do you want to help them!! Liberal depressions don't help them!!
     

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