Woa woa woa hold on there. I was at university for economics when I was at dinner with my dad in about 2004-2005. He facetiously asks me what is going on the economy, where should he invest? I easily described in simple terms how the Wall Street Journal, pre-Murdoch, has been talking about shockingly high housing prices and how this seems weird to them. I knew from reading the back cover of a textbook containing Keynesianism, that this will lead to a sudden re-evaluation of the price of everybody's stock portfolio in a downward direction. Everyone will suddenly realize they have less money than they thought and demand will decrease. This will increase unemployment and begin a self-reinforcing cycle that can only end by Keynesian government stimulus or some other method we have never tried. Did any of the jerkwads we stupidly elect to a popularity garbage contest try to do anything? They should all have been impeached immediately, obviously. Have you heard of Austin Goolsbee, or heard him speak with extreme passion about the ideas that you hate so much? He is an academic economist who recently had to resign because nobody listened to him. *Some Group* of politicians has disgustingly obstructed the objectively correct decisions of economists, and I am confident it has been this way for a long time. You mean the one that is causing similarly high inflation? Wait, there is no inflation. That's what many economists would say is an indicator that the debt is not high. that might be what is throwing you off, is that we are looking at numbers and you are looking at something else. What makes you think the debt IS high? High inflation? High treasury bond yields? Or a big high number that our popularity garbage contest winners are telling you is too high? Yes really. Inflation has been below 2% for years. Low demand and low employment cause DEFLATION. Deflation is not good, even though it's cool to buy a soda can for $0.25 like I once did, it is terrible to sell at that price and you will fire your soda employees. So what do you think is our current rate of inflation or return on treasury yields? Do you know why those numbers matter? Sorry guy. The similarity between today and the Great D is that we have high unemployment and low demand. this is different from the stagnation of the 70s where demand was high. The 70s was a supply shock, today we have a demand shock caused by financial speculators speculating about a great boom for too long. That is exactly what happened post ww1. Why is globalization relevant? You want to end government stimulus of road building and give tax cuts to Nike so they can hire Chinese slaves? Do you understand that? What if I told you that "expected inflation" is always 2% per year, and when we go below that, we refer to that as "deflationary pressure" and we are currently below 2%? In my profession, I talk real fast and people's eyes glaze over because they don't have any idea what I just said. I am a nerd, this is what happens. I wouldn't say that is MY mistake, though. It's really not that hard though. The first step is to please god do not trust politicians to explain this any better than I just did.
Ok, your jargon means zero to me. You take a huge political stance based on your post and that is in fact much of the problem in economics. I will tell you right now inflation will be much higher than 2% in a few years. How much money have we made out of thin air the last three years? How much debt have we gained in the last ten? We went from around 5 trillion (which is still a ton) when Bush took over in 2000. We are now at over 14.5 trillion in just over 10 years with trillion dollar deficits each year. Please tell me how this even begins to be paid off? The only way is inflation, period. Soon we will only be making interest payments because of two reasons, our interests rates for borrowing WILL go up, and two, we have such a massive debt that we won't even be able to pay any principle. Soon other countries won't be buying our treasuries and everything goes to hell. Revier, argue what you want about Friedman, I could give a rats ass. Basically your saying he's taken from Keynesian economics. That's fine by me, but you just put the last significant economic discovery back from the 70s to the 30s. Regardless if you want to degrade the economics profession even more, there hasn't been anything significant since, even with all the money spent on the profession. You've missed the ball. Economics isn't just plugging in numbers to a formula, its an actual science. And if it were treated as such, things may be discovered. Everyone knows, or at least should know most colleges teach with a very biased view. I mean come on, private colleges in general are hypocritical at best. They charge tons of money, tell you income distribution is best, they keep your money but don't distribute it, you go on to work at a similar college, teach the same values, some work hard, sure, but don't distribute it. Whatever. Right now, you just have to look at the big picture. US: Huge debt, reliant on foreign countries to buy our debt to continue spending. We aren't cutting spending at all and when a slight pressure was made against it, all hell broke loose. We are addicted to free money maybe? Well, it ain't free. We will learn the hard way. We have huge unfunded liabilities in the terms of Medicare and social security, not even being considered. The stock market is completely reliant on stimulus or funding from the fed. Banks are only making money because the fed is paying them to keep massive reserves. Housing is continuing to fall and will because people aren't buying and won't despite record low mortgage rates. The dollar continues to tank because the only way our economy can be propped up is artificially, by printing money. Unemployment isn't going down because businesses are afraid to hire. I mean its been quite some time, you'd think it might start getting better. I could go on about this, but the numbers speak for themselves. The fact of the matter is there is reality, and at some point you have to face it. Although most of this is the result of politics, politics won't save us, only common sense can at this point. Believe what you will, the facts are out there for you to see. I'm not an economist, just a guy with a head on his shoulders. Sometimes you just have to remember its there.
I'm sorry my friend. I may return to respond to you tomorrow, or within half an hour, but what I said can all be googled, and it is all serious facts. When people spew "jargon" It is not because we are trying to confuse you on purpose.
14 tril debt 1 tril owned by chin 10 tril owned by american citizens. Ten Trillion dollars out of our Fourteen Trillion total is owned by America. Did you know that? When America, someday, pays off our debt, We will NOT BE PAYING CHINAMEN MINORITIES WHO WE HATE We will be paying American freedom lovers. People in America Buy Bonds. They Bought Ten Trillion, because they are probably all communists and should go to jail
I tried to go with what I call "The Socratic Method" There are many question marks in my post. Please quote them and provide an answer The Socratic Method works best when you answer the questions. Or we could just Blab at eachother. Do you have a question for me? Like "HOW THE FDO YOU EVEN GET THE NERVE TO " etc -my responses in multiple threads may have been confused as a result of my opinions being in different threads. I am not used to this.... so many threads... I was a newbie who thought that if I made ten posts it would matter, when, in fact, it seems that you just are supposed to go to the intro forum...... So I want to provide a better response here.... soon tomorrow probably.
