Europe has to shut down plants to save gas for winter

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by vis, May 1, 2022.

  1. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    According to the Research Center in Julich, Germany, in order to fill the gas reservoirs in Europe to 80% by 1 November, EU has to switch all steel and chemical plants off until the end of July, and then one more time to stop the plants for some time again in October. Looks like that Germany and other EU countries have no other choices as to pay Russia for gas in rubles if EU wants to keep its economics working properly. This all shows that sanctions against Russia make more harm to EU rather than to Russia.

    https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/v...birien-a-7ce372ae-6f99-4611-a0c3-e52bfeb500b6
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2022
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  2. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They could avoid forcing shortages by raising the price enough to match demand.
     
  3. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Sanctions are burying Mafialand slowly....earlier today....Kremlin dipped into the reserve funds to service a loan payment due shortly so it wouldn't default. They'll be dipping more and more until they're bankrupt...it's only starting. Russia will end up an auction block ...piece by piece to the highest bidder...namely China.
     
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  4. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    Wishful thinking, zoom. Before all the reserves are used by Russian government, economics of EU will collapse.
     
  5. Poohbear

    Poohbear Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Half Russian hospitals don't have hot running water, according to Putin (for once I believe him)
    a quarter of all Russians want to leave, and half of all Russian kids want to leave.
    I say that Russia has already collapsed, but Russians just don't know it.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2022
  6. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    Strange, how selective are your beliefs. Where did you take the numbers of those who want to leave? Maybe you provide a link for that to support your statement? If Russians are not aware about collapse, then there is no one.
     
  7. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    There is often a lag with economic change, before people understand what is happening.

    Russia is headed for a Great Depression. The war will harm nearly everyone, but it will be the worst there.

    To be honest about it, if you told me Germany would do this, a year ago, I would have thought you quite mad. Putin really screwed the pooch this time.
     
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  8. Caligula

    Caligula Well-Known Member

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    First, the article is behind a paywall, hence we cannot really read what it says. Second, the article talks about plans to reduce gas imports from Russia and filling gas reservoirs at the same time. It doesn't say "Europe has to shut down ..."
    Third, the headline says "müssten Industrie und Kraftwerken [sic] abgeklemmt werden - und zwar wochenlang": "would have to be switched off for weeks." Meaning, if we want this or that to happen, we would have to..., and so on.
    The op is trying to make it sound like an indicative, but it isn't.
    The discussion, especially in Germany, is dominated by several lobby groups and industries who are afraid of losing money. Experts A says this, experts B says very much the opposite, expert C is somehwere in the middle. Then it turns out some of these 'experts' are lobbyists with a political agenda. Sanctions are never one-sided and that was clear right from the start. This article does in no way show that the sanctions are hitting the EU harder than Russia, that's nonsense. Even the worst case calculation models (these are done by real experts) say that a recession of around 5% is possible in case gas would have to be rationalized. That's pretty much the recession we experienced due to Covid in 2020. And we are still here.
     
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  9. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    EU can not simultaneously reduce consumption of gas and fill the reservoirs for winter up to at least 80%, unless it fully shuts down the factories and plants for the period mentioned earlier. So yes, the meaning of the article is that EU has to shut down the plants if they aim at the accomplishment of both two tasks. In Covid times the factories and plants have not stopped completely working for three months in a year. Therefore, the calculatios of these ''real'' experts are wrong.
     
  10. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    EU will collapse

    America will collapse

    I've heard that how many times already....we should be in the Stone age by now.....wishful thinking on your part vis....wait, EU can't collapse....where will you work...maybe Uzbekistan?
     
  11. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Funny you should say that vis....in PM chat, you tell me you can't wait to leave for Germany again?

    Almost 40 million Russkis have no toilets....fact.

    Many hospitals in Russia have inadequate water and are like a barn....

    60-70% of Russkis live below poverty line...fact.

    Many Russkis 35 yrs and under would leave Russia for better prospects elsewhere.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2022
  12. Caligula

    Caligula Well-Known Member

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    Who says that the EU cannot do that? You say that.
    The EU (in this case Germany) is filling its reservoirs at the moment.
    https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/deutsche-gasspeicher-fuellen-sich-langsam-wieder-100.html

    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle says an import stop of Russian gas would trigger a recession of 2% in 2023. Deutsche Bank also calculates a 2% recession. Economists from the universities of Bonn and Cologne calculate 3%, they say the impact would be less severe than during the Corona lockdowns. The Deutsche Institute für Wirtschaftsforschung calculates 3% but also warns that a recession could last a few years. But they also say "Die Schwere der Rezession ist demnach vergleichbar mit der Rezession, die durch die Corona-Pandemie verursacht wurde und kann dementsprechend mit zielgenauer makroökonomischer Wirtschaftspolitik deutlich begrenzt werden.“
    https://www.businessinsider.de/wirt...n-deutschland-prognosen-bundesbank-oekonomen/

    I'm very certain that you don't know better than these people, but you're free to believe whatever you want. I for one would trust people who have devoted their whole academic career to these topics a lot more than an anonymous pro-Putin user on the net.
     
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  13. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    I am not the one who makes the statistics. That fact that I want to leave does not mean that 25 percent of the population want to leave.
     
  14. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    Firstly, it is said in the article from Build. In the first sentences. Secondly, I am not pro-Putin. Finally, you can trust whoever you want. The time will show who is wrong, who is right.
     
  15. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Stats are what they are....give or take....fact is many Russkis would leave for brighter futures elsewhere.

    And that's ever more prevalent East of the Urals, Siberia and Far East....
     
  16. Caligula

    Caligula Well-Known Member

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    I absolutely agree, at this point nobody how this crisis will turn out.
    However, I find it ironic when such a statement comes from someone who's also claiming this:
    and, at the same time, claims that people who clearly are experts on these things are wrong. May I ask, do you have a BA, MA, Phd, etc in economics or lead a think tank of any sort? The people that you claim are wrong do have this expertise. I don't think you do. Your statements don't sound convincing, especially when the article talks about a what if scenario.
     
  17. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Donor

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    That is not what your article says.
     
  18. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, your link requires membership to read.
    Got something we all can read?
     
  19. Poohbear

    Poohbear Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The figure from Russian hospitals comes from PUTIN HIMSELF.
     
  20. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    Some screenshots from the article. Last screenshot is the first page.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2022
  21. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    These are the conclusions that can be made from the article.
     
  22. vis

    vis Well-Known Member

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    I do not have degree in economics. But sometimes you can make judgments based on the common sense. If you compare two periods of time, one with the industry working all the time, and another one with the industry stopped working for some time, it is clear that the numbers that indicate the performance of economics in these periods can not be the same. Or these experts considered the case when everything worked without interruption.
     
  23. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, I appreciate that effort.
    From what I gathered, it's likely the worst case scenario, if other methods of getting alternative methods aren't achieved.
    I would suspect that other alternatives will be accomplished, but how much?

    I think it wise for EU to step away from Russia, should have not put all those eggs into one basket in 1st place and get alternative ways.
    Always need a plan B and C.
     
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  24. DentalFloss

    DentalFloss Well-Known Member

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    Or, they can buy their steel and chemicals from someone else, preferably us. Wasn't that long ago we led the planet in steel production, I'm sure we could crank that up again pretty rapidly.
     
  25. notme

    notme Well-Known Member

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    Have you not noticed the gas prices?
     

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