Global Warming Could Devastate California’s Ski Resorts, Report Finds

Well, perhaps we're finally getting somewhere. Clearly, the statistical prediction then is only as good as the tightness of it's margin of error which of course is always happening. There are always errors that the statistical prognosis is riddled by. As you say, there are always potentials for record cold, just as there are potentials for record highs. Neither are then significant, right?

More, if you intentionally increase the smoothed temp record, or if you build an algorithm that predicts a temp record that is higher than an actual observation might collect, of course your average moves towards the higher range. And predictably, that's the effect we see in the data collections for places like Siberia or other locations in the arctic that don't have actual collection processes, but you already knew that...

The difference about the observation about Los Angeles is that it isn't just a point in time, it's a time period. And even in an El Nino year, the observation is anomalous and shouldn't be part of the tight margin that this error then contests... But you knew that too...

 

This has nothing to do with error. This has to do with the fact that weather is chaotic and climate tends to follow an attractor. Weather oscillates around the attractor as it moves. If the attractor moves higher then the probability of record lows decreases. If the attractor moves lower than the probability of record lows increases. But the probability never goes to 0 or 1.

We've gone over this already. Temperature data is being collected for the Arctic, Siberia, and Antarctic regions. Scientist know the global mean surface temperature within a reasonable margin of error. Even Berkeley Earth agrees with this.