Leadership for the world on Syria I see few original ideas on what and what not to do with the issue of Syria and would like to post something original and wait for the holes to be poked in it. At the moment I see players who normally are adept at playing political chess suddenly reduced to the game of checkers. We have Assad left with nothing left but military force as he attempts to stop a horde of idealology ranging from basic human rights, western norms and radical Qutbist theology all whipped up in a cauldron of passion. Both use what meager skills and assets they have to gain or hold ground with civilians bearing the brunt of it all. Assad, a dictator by birth, believing he is the legitimate leader of a nation of people yet imagining an illusion whereby they vote freely and support him. Like his father who ruled with the occasional civilian bloodletting Assad is well known to use force in order to attempt to put protestors away and restore what he thinks should be the norm for Syria. On the other hand, we have the Free Syrian Army, a mish mash of groups ranging from genuine pro Syria Nationalists, freedom fighters, defected Military to Jihadist Radicals, all under a loose control of defected Brigadier General Salim Idris. What we know for certain is that the Government stops at nothing to achieve its own security and, that the FSA does likewise. We also know that the Government has no interest in stepping down, making serious human rights changes and, that certain elements in the FSA will stop at nothing to achieve this end for themselves and hope to continue the chaos that will precipitate this end. Obama, who stated in 2012 that if Chemical Weapons were used in Syria by either party it would be crossing a red line that would require action painted himself into a credibility corner when it was revealed that they had been used in Syria on at least two occasions. He believes his intelligence sources indicate it was the Government who has done this and so, is contemplating taking action based on this intelligence, action that ranges from token punitive action to game changing destruction of government ability to defend itself against the FSA thus, paving the way for defeat. His intent is portrayed as wrong by most of the political spectrum and with good reason, there is no good side to support in this issue and, any involvement by the US changes the dynamics so intensely that it is a deciding factor. That said, while taking action may seem like an attempt to save face one has to realize that the use of Chemical Weapons is a war crime according to the Geneva Protocol and Rome Statute and thus, the use of them cannot be taken lightly no matter by whom. For the world to expect that no action be taken against whomever has used them simply because they dont like the alternatives if action is taken presents a serious challenge to international law and, to those such as Obama who proudly proclaimed that action would be taken. Action contemplated is preferred to have international blessings however, we find that the West/East separation is at play in Syria with Russia doing what they can to back the Government up as they have for decades as they recive oil concessions, port privileges and funds for arms sales. China the same but not to that great of an extent. As well, other regimes of the region need to see Eastern support or they may gravitate further to the West. This does not mean n any way that Russia or China will sacrifice their own money, assets or flesh and blood to hold the status quo in Syria but certainly will not be doing any favors to legitimize Obama if he decides to take action against the government. One fallacy is that the FSA is composed of inordinate numbers of Jihadists when in fact, they are marginal. This said, their presence may increase if Gulf States formally approve of support for the FSA against the Government. As well, their footprint is larger than their numbers as opposed to untrained students, local disenfranchised youth and defected Syrian security forces, they are frequently trained in guerrilla warfare, propaganda and are highly motivated to achieve their end which is to take advantage of chaos and pave the way for an Islamic government of their liking. While the main composition of the FSA is Syrians themselves interested in a free government and nation there is no denying the inevitability of the gradual influence of Jihadists. This is coupled with the disorganization and lack of control of rebel forces who employ inexperienced soldiers and recruit untrained volunteers allow for their influence to gain power. I believe the inevitable result as it stands now will be the shrinking of the government controlled areas and increased control of the FSA areas with the Government growing more desperate and violent and the FSA growing more radical and more likely to veer away from its original intent to create a free Syria. In short, as it stands, the players are trapped into their own behavioral patterns with all options looking terrible in every direction and, nobody willing to move. Id like to throw a couple of ideas out to see how they fly; The Desired Result All parties save the Jihadists and the Assad regime would see a free and democratic Syria that is a building block for the future. No nation, including Russia and China can find fault with this goal so, I believe this is the target to achieve. Those who would be against such a goal would be the Assad Regime as it stands now and, the Jihadists who will do everything they can to ferment chaos and violence. For this reason, they can be discounted out of any proposal that follows. Step One -Discover who was responsible for unleashing the CW and deal with them. The world cannot see use of CW without action taken. This would set a precedent and diminish international law to such an extent that any nation could flaunt and law at will without repercussions so no matter where we start, this must be done. Step Two Identify key players are and bring them to the Abyss. Explain to the Regime and the Leaders of the FSA that both their goals are achievable and, to list their key points which allows for the existence of the other in positions of compromise. If not, then whomever makes the better offer to end the bloodshed and provide stable leadership will be supported and the other will become extinct through lack of support. The key points would be that the Regime has to allow free and open elections with the Regime gradually losing power and, Assad having a token role as President overseeing a Parliament who actually holds executive power. The FSA would have to assume a gradual role as government rather than army and be willing to accept that Assad will take part in a post revolution Syria and, that there will be no war crimes trials or prosecution on either side. This will require a transition team from both sides to work out policy, a constitution and areas of concern for the new Syria and, the Government will need to adjust to the freedoms it will have to allow for the people as well as the ways in which they will enforce and allow same to take place. As part and parcel of this offer it is understood that both sides will require to work together in eliminating the Jihadist entities amongst the FSA. Three Gain the Support of Russia and China. Once it is determined how peace can be achieved and, how far both sides are willing to move to meet the process of gaining cooperation and assets from the international community comes into play. Here, the East is essential and, they have to know that their influence and trade will not only remain the same but actually increase. And also, they have to be involved in the peace process as part of the international UN mission to follow. Four - Gain UN Support and Peacekeeping Mission Present the transition plan and gain approval for the military support. Once gained, the mission will be allocated according to a central UN Headquarters working closely with the New Government forces of the Syrian Nation who will allow for holding of areas in transition. At the same time, Jihadists will need to be brought under control. This may require extensive cooperation between the Government and the FSA however, working closely with the UN Forces, the propaganda usage of the Jihadists will not gain traction making this far less of a concern. Summary A dictator has a mindset that he owns the people and land. In this day and age, this is an impossibility as they know what forces are working against them. Likewise, a revolution cannot simply take place where only taking power is the goal rather, human rights, blood and lives have to be considered to gain support for cause from the international community, a community that can make or break the entire movement. With the control of the propaganda mill under the wing of those who form a cohesive group achieving the goal of a successful, free, yet Assad dominated nation, I believe this may have possibilities. Thoughts?
