I'm getting more convinced that if the election still takes place next Tuesday (it likely will) then Obama will win the electoral votes but likely lose the popular vote. My reasoning is simple, Sandy will cause extremely low turnout along the East coast, but it won't affect the electoral college outcome. The East coast "Blue" states will still all fall for Obama, but may do so with anywhere from 10-30% lower voter turnout due to availability of transportation and access to polling places. This could mean an incredible outcome in our nations history, far different from Bush/Gore in 2000. Is it possible that Obama loses the popular vote by upwards of 10-15 million votes but still wins the electoral college? It very well coudl be the final outcome,especially as he still leads the aggregates of polls by a decent enough margin. A more important thing to consider, does this indicate that the electoral college actually does do its job of representing the majority of the populace, considering the fact that the East coast would fall for Obama significantly if they could get out and vote? I mean, if this disaster was happening in Texas, Oklahoma and Georgia, would it be fair for those states to still be represented, despite the possibilities of significantly lower turnout? I think it does to be honest, though I've never really thought about it that way until now.
Now dey dealing with the aftermath... Sandy's death toll climbs; millions without power 30 Oct.`12 Millions of people from Maine to the Carolinas waited wearily for the power to come back on Tuesday, and New Yorkers found themselves all but cut off from the modern world as the U.S. death toll from Superstorm Sandy climbed to 40, many of the victims killed by falling trees.
The electoral college isn't designed to represent the majority of people equally. Its designed to give small States equal say to large ones.
Of course and that is what liberals hate. It is the one mechanism that has prevented socialist takeover of the USA.
It will be funny to hear you crying and screaming foul when Obama loses the popular vote because of low turnout on the East Coast due to Sandy yet he wins the electorate because all of those states still fall in Obamas camp. When he's president for the next 4 years, how happy and supportive of the electoral college will you be Silicon? Of course, you better prepare your hateful spin yoruself right now. It's going to be a long 4 more years.
Last I checked, it wasn't an "equal say". The number of representatives a state has in the House of Representatives is apportioned in approximate correspondence to its share of the aggregate population of the 50 states, which is in turn determined by the census every 10 years. So no - it doesn't make small states "equal" to large ones. Nor is it a measure of the majority 'popular' vote. It gives the states a proportionate voice based on their population. The only place the states are equal in government is the U.S. Senate, each state having two senators.
I don't think turnout will be down as much as 30%. I would guess about 5-10% in the states affected. The storm could cause a popular vote/electoral vote split or increase the split's size (a split was quite possible even without Sandy). I don't think it would nearly as big as BTeam Bomber thinks. A split in the other direction could occur if a Huricane hit states like TX, LA, MS, AL close to election time these would still be red states but with lower turnout. I agree that the storm isn't likely to change any state's electoral vote. My guess is that Obama wins by a narrow margin in the popular vote and by 303-235 in the electoral college.
