Iran oil tanker: Gibraltar orders release of Grace 1

UK has bigger things to do than playing with Iran.
Brexit is not number one priority.
It is the only priority.
Dont call them until next year.
Certainly when German economy is slumping. They have to cut the EU tie before Germany drags them down with it.

 

I wonder why no one notes the very real possibility that the USA will simply seize the thing themselves when it leaves Gibraltar.

 

That is possible, but surely if the US does this, it will then have to seriously worry about the safety of its own vessels in and around the Persian Gulf.

 

The US can just destroy Iranian navy. It’s not like it’s the first time...

 

If US government really wants it then that’s a very strong possibility.

 

The problem is that it can't! You may be stuck in 1987, but Iran has learned its lessons and is quite ready for the US, especially at sea.

 

You really believe that?

 

I don't just believe it; I am sure of it. The area where Iran is strongest is in any engagement against the US naval forces in the Persian Gulf. In fact, the US knows it too. Actual American doctrine is to pull out the American navy from the Persian Gulf in case of war and to hit Iran from a distance. Iranian doctrine, on the other hand, is to try to trap the US navy there in the Persian Gulf.

 

What are you going to trap it with if all navy destroyed through airstrikes?

 

The US will be able to destroy Iran's larger naval vessels through air strikes. I will give you that. But that is why Iran's doctrine doesn't rely on its larger naval vessels in a war against the US. The general contours of Iran's doctrine is well known: in case of a war, Iran will mine the Straits of Hormuz and make sure that nothing leaves that area through a barrage of coastal based missiles and rockets. (For insurance, we might even sink several large tankers in those waters as that would also close it off as well). What remains in the Persian Gulf will then be picked off and destroyed through a combination of assets which Iran has. They include one of the world's largest submarine forces, composed mainly of smaller submarines designed for exactly a war with the US in the shallow waters of the Persian Gulf. These mini subs are now capable of launching anti-ship missiles in a way that keeps them still undetected, as the actual launching mechanism is very unique and one of a kind. The missile travels in a capsule and launches away from the submarine, making detection of the submarine very difficult. These mini subs, along with Iran's larger subs, also carry some of the world's fastest torpedoes and have mine laying capability as well. Then you have Iran's coastal anti-ship missiles, which come in significant numbers and include even ballistic anti-ship missiles. In this mix, you have Iran's large fleet of small speed boats which carry their own anti ship missiles as well. Their function is to overwhelm US naval defenses while the combination of Iranian coastal anti-ship missiles, Iranian fighter aircraft and their anti-ship missiles, and Iranian drones, finish the job. And there is more to it than that, but some of it you will have to find out when the time comes.

 

That's basically assuming you've just won the war before it's even started The Iranian Navy are not going to just sink all their vessels once they know the Americans are coming.

 

Saddam had a military too...

 

I suspect the US would simply pull back a few hundred miles, remove the Iranian navy from the board, and come back when the dust settles.

 

Of course not, but a ship can’t just hide in a sea.

 

How? With what?

 

Yep.
Before the strike you remove the Navy group, carpet-bomb the coast and then roll back in. This ain’t a brain surgery.

 

Here is the problem: there is no conflict that has shown air power even remotely as effective as the propaganda you are accustomed to hearing! In the 1991 war against Iraq, the US wasn't able to take out Saddam's much smaller and far more limited arsenal of Scuds, which continued to hit Israel and Saudi Arabia to the last day of the war. Nor were they able to do much else beyond destroying Iraq's civilian infrastructure. (Except also killing Saddam's forces as they were exiting Kuwait on the so-called highway death right before the start of the ground offensive). Even Iraq's air force, which was one of the first targets of America's air campaign during Desert Storm, somehow managed to organize a mass flight of some 150 of Iraq's best planes into Iran 3 days into a massive air campaign from air fields and bases which were supposedly destroyed, with planes and pilots that shouldn't have been operational if America's version of events was even remotely true. It has been the same story in other wars since: Israel conducted massive air strikes against Hezbollah, but they weren't able to take out Hezbollah's arsenal of weapons, missiles, etc. They continued to pound Israel until that war ended. Nor are the Saudis proving any more effective, despite the backing they get from the US in identifying targets for their American weapons and aircraft, from even taking out the rag tag Houthi drones, rockets and missiles...

 

You speak as though the plan is to invade and occupy the place. All they need do is eliminate enough of Iran's ability to wage war so as to make them relatively harmless and support any movement to replace the crazy mullah's with civilized government.

 

No, I am talking about the ability to "eliminate enough of Iran's ability" to hit back and retaliate against any US aggression. That ability does NOT exist for the US without the US actually trying its hand in a land invasion. Which is a non-starter.

 

Where is Saddam now?

 

Where he should be. But if you noticed, even a weakened Saddam who was mostly hanging by a thread and merely something like the mayor of Baghdad in 2003, wasn't taken out by "air power".

Anyway, even when Saddam had an army that was rather strong (the 1991 war as opposed to 2003), he was still a dictator with an army supplied from all over the world to fight Iran. He didn't have an army trained or equipped to fight an asymmetric war. Which is why even mentioning Saddam and trying to making an analogy between the war against Iraq and the war that the US faces against Iran totally ignorant. It is kind of like trying to tell the Viet Cong how a war against them would unfold, reminding them of D-Day and the invasion of Normandy!

While this is simply a journalistic piece by CNN and I don't agree with some of it, it still probably a useful video for you to watch. It should at least make you realize that we are talking about a very different type of war.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/06/21/impact-of-possible-us-iran-war-robertson-pkg-vpx.cnn

Or you might read this account which presents what I consider still quite fanciful notions, omitting certain things that cannot be omitted in any realistic scenario of war (e.g., talking about Iran's kilo class subs, but not its much larger and more relevant arsenal of mini subs etc) and making assumptions (such as Iran agreeing to a ceasefire after a few days of fighting, which is total BS and the opposite of what will be the case), but is at least informed by the fact that those who wrote the piece are an admiral who served as vice chairman of the US joint chiefs of Staff and another fellow who was a former CIA director. (The piece is really off on a few things, but its better than the nonsense here).
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/452905-the-frightening-reality-of-a-war-with-iran
The frightening reality of a war with Iran
BY MICHAEL MORELL AND ADM. JAMES A. “SANDY” WINNEFELD JR., USN (RET.) — 07/14/19 10:00 AM EDT

Or you can read what American military experts and officers talking to the US Military Times had to say on the subject.
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2019/06/04/what-war-with-iran-could-look-like/
Your Military
What war with Iran could look like

Or you can just assume things that aren't even remotely true. It doesn't change anything for me.

 

War mongers think that it's a win if they lose one ship and it's crew if the other side loses more. Tell that to the family of that crew

 

Submarines can, and other ships besides Americans can have Phalanx like defenses. Are you assuming the American Air Forces will just clear the skies on the first go? In many cases they will be fighting the same plane

 

For me, the reality of war between Iran and the US isn't going to be anything like some imagine here. As I explained elsewhere in a post in the thread about Rohani's supposed "mother of all wars" thread, the worst case scenario I see for Iran is the one outlined by the US admiral and former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and his colleague, a former Deputy Director of the CIA. That worst case scenario for Iran will also be a bad scenario for the US. The very best scenario will be if saner voices prevail in the US and force it to abandon trying to strangulate and destroy Iran by the measures it wants to pursue. That would eventually prove a great scenario for both Iran and the US. While less of a nightmare in my eyes, the other scenario is for a war that does erupt but which Iran (remaining true to its promises and threats) doesn't let the US end by submitting to any quick ceasefires etc. In that case, whether the US wins or loses at the end, the outcome will eventually see Iran freed from the agenda and predicament some have planned for it. And that is better to me than a situation where Iran is expected to sit down and take measures that are designed and intended to throw it into chaos, civil war, and ultimately an implosion or which leave it with a government and society which is basically living in a cage.

 

While Iranian air force is regarded as Iran's weakest link in any war with the US, it is important to note 3 things in this regard. First, Iran has very strong air defense systems of the kind that the US has never faced in any war. Second, Iran has very good air-to-air missiles, some of it with beyond-visual-range (BVR) capability that out-match most of the air-to-air missiles on American planes. For instance, Iran's F-14AM (modernized) are fitted with the Fakour-90 air-to-air missile, which can hit targets as far as anywhere from 200 km (lower US estimates) to 300 km (Iranian claimed capability of the missile). Third, Iran has a very strong UAV program -- and a large fleet of such UAVs, including UAVs that can carry missiles. The combination will make sure that the US will be busy fighting Iran for air supremacy over the Persian Gulf for weeks if not months.