Is It Just Me Or Are We Close To World War?

I feel like we are in the July Crisis before WWI.

Or is it just me?

A few points:

1. US-Russia tensions are at their worst they've been since the cold war. Russia invaded Crimea to try to mitigate US sanctions and establish a warm water port.
2. US-China tensions are high. China is trying to dominate the South China Sea and are deploying submarines as far as the Indian Ocean.
3. India (if you recall, Modi, the Indian nationalist won the election) just revoked the previous status of Kashmir under Article 370, Pakistan are threatening graveyards full of Indians, both sides have nuclear weapons.
4. Xi Jinping is in for life. Vlad is in for as long as he can pay his support.
5. Left and right wing terrorists are shooting innocents in the street. Extremists are normalising violence and tensions are escslating.
6. It is now inarguable that the rise of populism in Europe is a persistent thing. Paris has sustained months on end of riots. The UK is leaving deal or not. Austria, Italy and Hungary have populist governments. Most others have strong populist movements. The European federalists are pushing greater integration and the situation is tentative.
7. Iran, Syria, and Crimea (allied with Russia) are involved in proxy wars with KSA, FSA, and the Ukraine (allied with the US). If these conflicts escalate and a spark sets them off major powers could become embroiled in a broader conflict.
8. China is pushing for full unification with Hong Kong and the abolition of One Country, Two Systems. The extradition treaty is the death knell of Cantonese sovereignty - it doesn't much matter how free your country is if you can be shipped off and tried in a Leninist struggle session. Talk is around a Chinese Army incursion to restore order, and that would present the US sphere with a question: war or appeasement?

Is Fallout 4 going to be reclasified as a simulator in the mid-long term?

 

I think world leaders are too busy enriching themselves to fool with war.

 

Yes it is just you. The world is not close to another major war. Much less a world war.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if these two major wars happened in the next couple years: The United States vs Iran, India vs Pakistan.

 

Don't worry. The earth will go up in a fiery inferno long before fighting forces can be mobilized.

 

I think we'd be hard pressed to pinpoint a decade in the last century that couldn't be similarly described.

But then again I just bought a few hundred bucks of shelf-stable food to match my alleged 'arsenal' of ammo, so...

 

Only 8 years left.

 

We are closest to national insurrection and civil war.

 

U.S. vs. Iran is a curbstomp. Not a major war.

India vs. Pakistan? Who cares?

 

I think that anyone who takes a game theory approach to various factions throughout the Middle East, from Levantine Shia to KSA Islamists and disgruntled royals, understands that a war with Iran will spiral put of control very quickly.

How about, "nearly everybody."

 

War is ultimately inevitable in one form or another. The human species simply cannot exist without such. It is the only species on the planet that is obsessed with killing itself off through whatever means necessary. If humans are not killing themselves, they are killing each other.

 

I see your point and that's just the tip ofvthe iceberg but to me it just seems like everyone is angry, no real enemies, just anger. If anything is on the horizon it'll be anarchy. Every man for himself. Clans massacering each other.

Picture a the walking dead with no zombies.
The worst part, i think there is a little bit in each of us that likes the idea.

 

Why? No one is going to help the Iranians.

 

That is obviously not true. Factions throughout the region know that without Iran they will be crushed, especially in the Levant where they could otherwise be completely isolated from any sources of support. The Levant just happens to be the most militarized part of the world right now.

And it's also important to point out that Iran is much more dangerous just on it's own than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. A "limited strike" wouldn't remain limited, as the Iranians won't allow themselves to be disarmed.

I do think we would win, but it would require far greater effort than most people think. And, in the end, I think we'd be geopolitically worse-off for it.

Korea and Vietnam were "major wars," and I suspect that Iran would be much more difficult than either, requiring American commitments not just in Iran, but also in Iraq, Yemen, Central Asia, and the Levant, and it would shock the world economy as oil shipments out of the Gulf are endangered.

 

"Is It Just Me Or Are We Close To World War?"

Trump is hurting our allies and supporting our enemies, things are shaking up for sure, but I think once Trump is out of office, things will get back to normal

 

Iran would lose their leadership and most of their war making capability by US airpower in the first day and a half.

 

Oh and I also want to say that another Turkish invasion of Syria (which Erdogan is threatening again) could spark a war between Turkey and Iran. I don't think it's very likely, but it's plausible.

 

As the Taliban have shown us, "war-making capability" means guys with guns in mountains. And I think the Iranians could retain much more than that after a first strike.

 

not to mention the cost, in both $$$ and lives.... after two 10+ year wars, we can't really afford another

we would not lose, though not sure it would be a win either

 

We can afford it, for sure. We just don't want to spend the resources. And we shouldn't.

And like I've hinted at before, there is a serious possibility of us losing.

 

we need to nation build at home, sure we could charge more war to the credit card, but can we really afford it?

 

We should be pushing to ban all weapons worldwide, not just guns in America. Maybe that could be the left's next great utopian cause. Why not?

 

Yes, we absolutely can. I don't take deficit bearishness very seriously.

 

Yes but nothing that can leave Iran, we don't need to beat Iran just contain it.

 

Because the people who didn't turn in their weapons would rule everything.