Tomorrow's Crunch Time for Trump and Ryan. Can they get the Obamacare replacement bill approved by the House? Pundits and handicappers say it's too close to call. The Freedom Coalition in the Repub party is the determining factor here; will they or won't they give enough votes to the legislation to let it proceed to the Senate, or kill it and let the party take the power hit? If Trump and Ryan can't get this through the House, things will be bleaker for the party in the mid-terms. One other way - a long long LONG shot - is to convince enough of The Other Side to go along with the legislation and give them something in return when the thing goes to Conference Committee. No particular resource can give much indication for or against it being passed tomorrow, but based on more gut feeling than anything else, my vote is: PASS
I think it passes. I also think a complete version passes the Senate via reconciliation. There's too much capital being spent here just to pass the blame ,,, and spending political capital to pass the blame is not in Trump's playbook. I wish they had just worked on tax reform and let Obamacare die on its own.
I'll be the first naysayer and declare it will not pass the House of Representatives in it's current form. As it is too late to change this specific bill, I think it will fail. Every Republican ran on a promise to Repeal. Constituents voted for repeal not an amendment to Obamacare. The Freedom Caucus appears to stand firm to this commitment. Potential pandering to caucus members, providing favor "outside" of this bill in exchange for their support will not work in my opinion. They are in a perfect storm unique situation to have a MAJOR role in any future healthcare bill amendments, should this bill fail. I personally don't think they will easily give up this negotiating power to pander to the will of the Paul Ryan and the President. What could they be offered to support a bill they vocally detest, that would be greater than the power gained by voting no and forcing a separate bill be enacted with their input being a strong consideration? Politicians covet power, I see them flexing it and voting this bill down.
It will fail, there are enough congressional Republicans who realize that this bill does not replace Obamacare, it simply modifies it, Ryan is up the creek without a paddle on this one.
