Polls show that the split on gay marriage is not between black or white, or male or female. Rather, support for same-sex marriage equality divides sharply based on generational lines. Millennials overwhelmingly support it, Generation X narrowly supports it, while Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation solidly oppose it. Do you stand with your generation or against it, on this issue?
I'm technically a baby-boomer, but don't identify with any particular generation. I'm solidly out-of-step with my generation. Pretty much always have been. Now for a few counterarguments: I can't cite you the study (too lazy to bother looking it up), but people tend to become more conservative with age. Whether or not "Generation X" and "Millennials" will become more conservative on this issue as they age I wouldn't venture to guess. There's also the issue of motivation. People who oppose marriage equality are far more motivated to get out to the polls and vote for amendments to ban it that the people who support it are to get out and vote against those amendments. I call it the "Whatever, don't really care" attitude. The latter part of the silent generation and the baby boomers are going to be around for quite some time to come, so I really don't get this idea some people express that marriage quality nationwide is right around the corner. I think 20 years is being optimistic.
It has less to do with age and more with religiousness. Most people who are religious are more likely to oppose same-sex marriage than a person of similar age who is not religious. Religiousness declines each generation, thus attitudes to same-sex marriage are gradually becoming more favorable.
Well yeah, my genergation is much more open to gay marriages. Why? I have to guess but it's simply about love. We're grrowing up to be tolerant of other people, and being gay is something we're used to in a sense.
Well, actually I was really just using the 'generations' as categories for age groups, not necessarily based on whether you actually identify with what that generation is about. Polls are only allowed to have up to 10 options, so I used Pew Research Center's age categories rather than asking more specific age categories. Well I can't cite you the study (too lazy to bother looking it up) either, but I'm pretty sure it's been found that the idea that most people become more conservative with age is largely a myth. Most people don't change in any major way. But I think this is particularly true of civil rights issues. While some civil rights protestors from the 60s might have become conservative as they aged, I don't think any of them became segregationists who wanted to bring back Jim Crow. This is also affected by the fact that as society progresses, what was once considered a radical idea eventually becomes the accepted standard even among conservatives, and the whole spectrum is shifted toward progress. Granting women the right to vote might have been a radical idea in 1900, but no mainstream conservative a hundred years later would dare suggest revoking that right. Just a decade or two ago, calling for civil unions for same-sex couples was considered radical, now it's considered a relatively conservative compromise that the overwhelming majority of Americans support, while full marriage equality is becoming more accepted. That might be true for some, though not for the people I know who are very motivated to support marriage equality, among many other issues. I think 20 years is pessimistic. I think all of the Northeast and Pacific Coast will probably have marriage equality legalized within 5 years. The West and Midwest will follow. But SCOTUS will probably rule at some point, sooner or later, and establish equality nationwide, even in the South.
California: Had it, lost it, might get it back again depending on the outcome of the Prop 8 case. Could be settled favorably within your 5 year time frame. Washington: has passed it, but it could be defeated at the polls in November before it takes effect. Outlook hazy. Oregon: Has an amendment. Haven't heard diddly squat about any movement to repeal it. What are you defining as the Northeast? Maine: Passed it, defeated at the polls in a referendum. Efforts underway to reinstate it, but will that effort succeed? Outlook unstable.What Rhode Island: Has civil unions. Marriage within 5 years? Heavily Catholic, but I think it's possible. Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont already have it. New Hampshire has it, but the GOP there keeps making noise about repealing it. Outlook unstable. Delaware has civil unions. I'll be happy to admit that I have no clue about the prospects for marriage there. New Jersey has civil unions. Could get marriage within 5 years, but not so long as Christie holds the governorship. D.C. already has it. Maryland: passed it, could be defeated by public referendum in November. Outlook hazy. New York already has it. Pennsylvania: No way. More likely to pass an amendment than marriage in 5 years. West Virginia: Could get civil unions? Don't really know the prospects for marriage there. Then there's the rest of the country. Do you really think you can overcome amendments in the South and the Plains? I'm very skeptical. Idaho? Utah? So not happening without the court's intervention. Same goes for Michigan and Virginia. Heck, even North Carolina, the South's outlier until recently on the issue, has banned ALL forms of recognition, not just marriage. Public opinion polls don't matter. The only poll that matters is elections and the trend is 30 to zip against us there. It took 17 years to get from Bowers to Lawrence in the courts. At the time Bowers was decided, it was about an even split in the states on sodomy laws in application to same-sex couples. For the sake of argument, you really think you can get all but 14 states (the number still banning homosexual sodomy at the time of Bowers) to repeal their amendments AND pass marriage equality? You think the Supreme Court will be ready in 20 years to overrule the remaining states on this, given the history (a constitutional amendment is a heck of a lot stronger than a statute.) Not Idaho and Utah. Not Michigan. I don't see it. Best hope the GOP doesn't retake the presidency and have the opportunity to appoint any justices to the Supreme Court in the interim.
It'll probably be on the ballot on this year, and if it is, Prop 8 will be repealed. It was only narrowly passed 52-48 in 08. Doubtful it will be repealed. The amendment passed with 56.6%, but that was relatively weak considering it was way back in 2004. It will be on the ballot again this year, and will likely pass. The 2009 veto, taking place in an off-year low turnout election, was also a narrow 53-47. Polls I've seen show support in Maine at about 54-58 pct, compared to 40-41 pct opposed. Massachusetts is just as Catholic and Rhode Island, and it just celebrated 8 years of marriage equality, which has popular support in the mid-60s range. RI doesn't really matter though, it's so tiny, the governor just signed an executive order recognizing out-of-state marriages, and every state surrounding it has marriage equality. NH won't repeal it. Popular support there is like 59-32 in favor. Even the Republican-dominated legislature squashed the idea of repeal. New Hampshirites hate taxes, not gays. NJ is only a matter of time, fatso will be gone soon enough. Of 8 states with marriage equality, 6 are in the Northeast, soon it will be 7 or 8. This is clearly the gayest region of the country. Pennsylvania I don't necessarily consider a Northeastern state, since the West of the state is Rust Belt, while the middle ('the T') is rightly known as Pennsyltucky. West Virginia is definitely NOT a Northeastern state. It's Appalachian, Southern, but not Northeastern. They don't like gays any more than they like black Muslims like Obama. The South will have to be forced by the courts. If the courts don't rule, probably the only state that might legalize it is Virginia, followed by Florida, but neither any time soon. In the West, states like Colorado, Nevada, maybe even Montana might change. I could certainly see CO repealing its amendment within a few years considering how rapidly the state is changing, although right now the Republicans there are filibustering to prevent a vote on even a very popular civil unions bill that could otherwise easily pass. The Mormon Triangle (Idaho, Wyoming, Utah) would be tough though, with Utah being by far the toughest. The Midwest does lag somewhat behind I think, even the Democratic-leaning upper Midwest...though the courts already forced Iowa to legalize. Elections that took place in the past...this is the future. And the support for marriage equality has grown incredibly, surprisingly rapidly. And popular opinion/national sentiment does DOES affect how SCOTUS and other courts rule. Compared to what happened with interracial marriage, we are actually way ahead. It took 30 years for popular opinion to catch up with the court order to legalize interracial marriage in 1967. Now we already have majority support for same-sex marriage. I don't think it will take 20 years for SCOTUS to rule on this. Of course the GOP needs to be kept out of power, but I doubt Willard stands a chance in November.
How many states had constitutional amendments against interracial marriage still in force at the time SCOTUS ruled in favor of the Lovings? Nothing near the number that have banned legal recognition of same-sex couples' marriage. The power to regulate marriage was not delegated to the federal government in the Constitution, making it a power reserved to the states or The People. SCOTUS is not going against a majority of states retaining amendments to their constitutions regardless of what opinion polling purports to say. There is no plan being pursued to put the repeal of Prop 8 on the November 2012 ballot in California. As for the states facing voter referenda to repeal laws recognizing same-sex couples marriages, if those referenda don't succeed, they will be the first ever not to. The trend is not in our favor. Re: the percentages by which an amendment passed, the plain fact is that it passed. The results in North Carolina tell us that public opinion being in favor of legally recognized same-sex marriage does not guarantee a result reflecting that opinion. The majority of eligible voters do not vote. The opposition is far more passionate in its opposition than supporters are in their support, generally speaking. Regarding Maine, I'll believe it when I see it. Not until. I find it hilarious that you think Virginia might pass a law recognizing same-sex marriages when that state has the most sweeping of all the marriage amendments, yet you think West Virginians hate gays when a civil unions bill has been introduced there. Repeal of the amendment in neighboring Virginia? Not even on the radar. The past is known. The future is not. Past predictions about the future of marriage equality have not been fulfilled. I do not know that we won't have nationwide marriage equality in 5, 10 or 20 years. So it comes down to a question of who has a better handle on the reality of where we're likely to end up. Obviously, I don't think it's you. Your predictions seems to be based almost entirely on public opinion polling and excuses for past losses made in hindsight. Meanwhile, we have the very consistent banning of legal recognition for same-sex couples in a majority of states - every single last one where it has been put to a popular vote, the most recent example occurring just this month. Get back to me when that trend reverses for real...because I don't give a (*)(*)(*)(*) about public opinion polls - not when the results at the ballot box are consistently the opposite.
Doesn't matter, all it takes is one ruling to wipe them all out. The power to regulate marriage was not delegated to the federal government in the Constitution, making it a power reserved to the states or The People. SCOTUS is not going against a majority of states retaining amendments to their constitutions regardless of what opinion polling purports to say. If not this year, then soon enough. Maine, Minnesota, Maryland, Washington are all points of optimism this year. What trend? Unless there are multiple votes within a state, it's hard to make out much of a trend. Um, says who? Nationwide support for marriage equality is at about 51-45 in favor. With the margin that close nationally, of course it's not going to translate into wins right now in Bible Belt states like North Carolina. But the most densely populated states are in favor. Um, why is that hilarious? Virginia and West Virginia are both trending in two different directions. Republicans are in control of Virginia right now, but they are overreaching in what is a fundamentally changing state. It's not the conservative bastion it once was. Increasingly the state is dominated by liberal suburban NoVA, not the shrinking conservative parts which Sarah Palin called "the real Virginia" which only gave the McCain-Palin ticket 46% of the vote in 2008. West Virginia, on the other hand, remains dominated by conservative, rural forces. No matter how Democratic the state legislature is, they're not going to pass civil unions or marriage equality. Barack Obama won the 2012 Democratic primary by with less than 60% of the vote, with his only rival on the ballot being a convicted felon from Texas. It's hardly a progressive civil rights state. In the 2004 vote for the amendment banning marriage equality in Ohio, it got nearly 80% of the vote in the rural Southeastern counties bordering West Virginia. Consider that even in 2006 when Virginians passed their amendment, it was with only with 57%, the weakest margin in the South, and even weaker than margins in non-Southern states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Oregon (and NC 2012). For reference: Red states have amendments banning marriage equality, first map shows percentage that voted for it, second shows the year of the vote, which is also important to take into account considering how rapidly minds are changing on this issue. Pink states ban marriage equality only by statute. Green states have marriage equality, 2nd map shows year it was enacted. Blue states have civil unions (dark) or domestic partnerships (light). (Note some amendment states (e.g. NV, CA, OR) do also have civil unions or domestic partnerships) Well obviously, I disagree, and tbh I think you have a rather poor grasp of the demographic trends and shifts taking place in states across the country. Or perhaps you are just deliberately distorting or ignoring things to fit your bias toward pessimism... And during this same period, marriage equality has also been legalized in eight states. There'll never be a vote in New York in Massachusetts or Vermont or New Hampshire or Connecticut because there's not even enough demand to challenge the laws. Otherwise they would easily pass in these states.
