The latest poll I have seen, from the state of Michigan, shows a dead heat in The Wolverine State. That is from Baydoun/Foster: Michigan Poll: Obama and Romney in dead heat - Fox 2 News Headlines Admittedly, the RealClearPolitics average of polls (of which, this is a part) shows a 4.0 point lead in Michigan for President Obama: RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Still, this is the most recent of the polls taken in Michigan, displayed in the RCP average (it was conducted between 10/22 and 10/23). Oh, and Baydoun/Foster is a Democratic polling agency...
It's not close, in MI or PA. Romney isn't spending any money in those states. That's all you need to know.