NOAA finds sea level rise less than half of IPCC claims

jackdog · Jul 3, 2013

looks like the IPCC is up to it's old tricks of exaggeration and fear mongering

According to the latest NOAA sea level budget, global sea levels rose at only 1.1 - 1.3 mm/year from 2005-2012, which is less than half of the rate claimed by the IPCC [3.1 mm/yr] and is equivalent to less than 5 inches per century. Contrary to alarmist claims, sea level rise decelerated over the 20th century, has also decelerated since 2005, and there is no evidence of any human influence on sea levels.

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/12/noaa-2012-report-finds-sea-levels.html
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The Budget of Recent Global Sea Level Rise 2005 2012

PeakProphet · Jul 3, 2013

jackdog said: ↑

looks like the IPCC is up to it's old tricks of exaggeration and fear mongering
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So IPCC contradicts NOAA on known historical temperatures by ignoring the ice core data showing things like the MWP, the Roman Warming, the Holocene warmings (A and B I believe), they can't predict temperatures on even short time scales, and now they can't predict sea level rise?

Is there anything they CAN do?

Roy L · Jul 6, 2013

PeakProphet said: ↑

and now they can't predict sea level rise?
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Not "can't predict." Lie about after the fact.

BillyGee · Jul 7, 2013

There is no discrepancy between the NOAA and IPCC guys. The IPCC is talking about the longterm trend while the NOAA paper covers just 2005-2012, just 7 years. Short-term periods often differ from the longterm trend.

The full satellite data show 3mm/year increase.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/conten...ea-level-time-series-seasonal-signals-removed

At the end of 2011 there was a strong La Nina which rained a lot of water from the oceans onto land and reduced sea level temporarily. It took months for the water to flow back into the sea (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/nasa-satellites-detect-pothole-road-higher-seas). As a result the 2005-2012 period has a suppressed trend. You can see that from 2012 there has been a large jump in sea level, as a result the trend remains at an alarming 3mm/year which suggests an acceleration (http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html). This is the same NOAA satellite data by the way.

flogger · Jul 8, 2013

BillyGee said: ↑

There is no discrepancy between the NOAA and IPCC guys. The IPCC is talking about the longterm trend while the NOAA paper covers just 2005-2012, just 7 years. Short-term periods often differ from the longterm trend.

The full satellite data show 3mm/year increase.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/conten...ea-level-time-series-seasonal-signals-removed

At the end of 2011 there was a strong La Nina which rained a lot of water from the oceans onto land and reduced sea level temporarily. It took months for the water to flow back into the sea (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/nasa-satellites-detect-pothole-road-higher-seas). As a result the 2005-2012 period has a suppressed trend. You can see that from 2012 there has been a large jump in sea level, as a result the trend remains at an alarming 3mm/year which suggests an acceleration (http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html). This is the same NOAA satellite data by the way.
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Sea level rise is just another piece of alarmist spin based on shonky climate modelling. Theres nothing whatsoever unusual or outwith natural variation today. The seas have been rising for at least the last 15,000 years despite our industrialised presence and the rate of rise today is quite unremarkable. Lets put the predicted rises into the context of the observed rises

http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c015432695991970c-pi

Looks like James Hansen hits the bullseye again........ NOT !

BillyGee · Jul 8, 2013

Sea level is actually rising faster than predicted.

waltky · Jul 31, 2013

Granny got Uncle Ferd nailin' pontoons onna side o' the trailer...

Climate study predicts watery future for US cities
Wed, Jul 31, 2013 - More than 1,700 US cities and towns including Boston, New York, and Miami will have significant populations living below the high-water mark by the end of this century, a new climate change study has found.

Those 1,700 towns are locked into a watery future by greenhouse gas emissions already built up in the atmosphere, the analysis published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on Monday found. For nearly 80 of those cities, the watery future would come much sooner, within the next decade. Even if we could just stop global emissions tomorrow on a dime, Fort Lauderdale, Miami Gardens, Hoboken, New Jersey will be under sea level, said Benjamin Strauss, a researcher at Climate Central, and author of the paper. However, dramatic cuts in emissions much greater than US President Barack Obama and other world leaders have so far agreed could save nearly 1,000 of those towns, by averting the sea-level rise, the study fund. Hundreds of American cities are already locked into watery futures and we are growing that group very rapidly, Strauss said. We are locking in hundreds more as we continue to emit carbon into the atmosphere.

HIGH-WATER MARK

Those 1,700 cities would have 25 percent of their populations living below the high-water mark by 2100. About 79 cities and towns with a combined population of 835,000 would be staring down those waters by 2023. About half of the population of Fort Lauderdale, Hoboken, and Palm Beach, would be living below the high tide line by 2023. The list of cities at risk by 2100 spanned Sacramento, California which lies far from the sea, but would be vulnerable to flooding in the San Joaquin delta and Norfolk, Virginia. The latter town is home of the US largest navy base, whose kilometers of waterfront installations would be at risk by the 2040s. The Pentagon has already begun actively planning for a future under climate change, including relocating bases. About half the population of Cambridge, Massachusetts, across the Charles River from Boston and home to Harvard, would fall below sea-level by the early 2060s, the study found. Several coastal cities in Texas were also vulnerable.

HIGHEST RISK

However, the region at highest risk was Florida, which has dozens of towns which will fall below the high water mark by centurys end. Miami would be significantly under water by 2041, the study found. Half of Palm Beach with its millionaires estates along the sea front would be below the high water line by the 2060s. Other cities such as Fort Lauderdale were already well below sea-level. Pretty much everywhere it seems you are going to be under water unless you build a massive system of dykes and levees, Strauss said. The study drew on current research on sea-level rise. A recent study, also published in PNAS by the climate scientist Anders Levermann found each 1°C rise in atmospheric warming would lead eventually to 2.3m of sea-level rise.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2013/07/31/2003568615
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tecoyah · Jul 31, 2013

It matters not what any of us opine on this issue....some will accept the provided data, others will not. A century from now we will know one way or the other and still be impotent to do a damn thing about it.

Plan for the worst......hope for the best.

waltky · Aug 21, 2013

Granny hopin' the back forty'll end up makin' a nice beachfront property...

Climate Change Threatening America’s Coastline ‘From Sea to Shining Sea’
August 19, 2013 – Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) stated on the House floor last month that Republicans should acknowledge that climate change “is real and it’s already affecting the earth in profound ways,” including the United States of America.

“Unpredictable and destructive weather patterns are making it harder for farmers to grow crops, while rising sea levels threaten our coastal cities and beaches from sea to shining sea,” Johnson said. “The scientific consensus is clear: Human activity is causing our planet to warm to dangerous levels. Scientists agree that higher temperatures are raising sea levels and driving severe weather patterns that threaten our economy and our way of life,” the congressman said.

“Here in Congress, the [House] majority refuses to even acknowledge that we have a problem while the rest of the world seems to understand that it’s the moral imperative of our time,” he said. “I urge my colleagues to put politics aside, listen to the science, and come together and begin to help prevent the worst effects of climate change,” Johnson said.

As CNSNews.com previously reported, in a June 20 interview with Spiegel Online, German climate scientist Hans von Storch said that despite predictions of a warming planet, the temperature data for the past 15 years shows an increase of 0.06 or “very close to zero.”

“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break,” Storch said, adding that “recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared.” “As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years,” he added.

- See more at: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/dem...oastline-sea-shining-sea#sthash.N3v6LjIt.dpuf
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See also:

Federal Remapping of Sandy-Damaged Areas May Curb Coastal Development
August 20, 2013 - If your seaside home or business washes away in a coastal storm, will you be allowed to rebuild? Or would sand dunes in place of buildings make the area more "resilient"?

The federal government announced on Monday that it is remapping storm-damaged areas of the East Coast, a move that will contribute to new "resilience standards" for the post-Hurricane Sandy rebuilding effort. The updated Environmental Sensitivity Index maps will provide "important reference material for green infrastructure planning," said a report released Monday by a federal task force that is shaping the rebuilding strategy.

According to the task force, "Green infrastructure includes natural and/or restored features (e.g., wetlands or sand dune ecosystems), that incorporate the natural processes (e.g., flood protection, water filtration) that are recognized as integral to community, economic, and environmental resilience. These approaches have proven successful in other regions, and it appears they reduced flood damage where applied in the region impacted by Sandy." In fact, the task force recommends that "green infrastructure options" be considered in all post-Sandy infrastructure investments.

"By building more resilient regions, we can save billions in taxpayer dollars," HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan said in a task force report on rebuilding Sandy-damaged regions.

Three federal agencies -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers -- announced Tuesday that they will use ships, aircraft, and satellites to measure water depths, look for submerged debris, and record altered shorelines in high priority areas from South Carolina to Maine, as stipulated by Congress in the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013. “Our approach is to map once, then use the data for many purposes,” said NOAA Rear Admiral Gerd Glang in a news release. “Under the Ocean and Coastal Mapping Integration Act, NOAA and its federal partners are taking a 'whole ocean' approach to get as much useful information as possible from every dollar invested to help states build more resilient coastlines.”

The data will be available to local, state, and federal agencies as well as academia and the general public. The information can be applied to updating nautical charts, removing marine debris, replenishing beaches, making repairs -- "and planning for future storms and coastal resilience," NOAA said.

Rising sea levels
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stjames1_53 · Aug 21, 2013

One cannot argue against climate change. It has happened before and will happen again, with or without Man's influence. The earth is a constantly change paradigm. It is the nature of things. What bothers me is that the call to throw money at some agency will help "correct" this problem.
If there are any doubts about natural change, will some one please tell me what happened to the Sahara rainforest?

perdidochas · Aug 21, 2013

waltky said: ↑

Granny hopin' the back forty'll end up makin' a nice beachfront property...

Climate Change Threatening Americas Coastline From Sea to Shining Sea
August 19, 2013 Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) stated on the House floor last month that Republicans should acknowledge that climate change is real and its already affecting the earth in profound ways, including the United States of America.
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Hank Johnson:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20001567-503544.html

mamooth · Aug 21, 2013

Meanwhile, back in the real world, we find the IPCC erring strongly on the conservative side, as it always does. After all, the IPCC is under intense political pressure to downplay global warming.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/article
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The satellite-based linear trend 19932011 is 3.2 ± 0.5 mm yr−1, which is 60% faster than the best IPCC estimate of 2.0 mm yr−1 for the same interval
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Red line is the increase, blue area the projections.

gslack · Aug 26, 2013

mamooth said: ↑

Meanwhile, back in the real world, we find the IPCC erring strongly on the conservative side, as it always does. After all, the IPCC is under intense political pressure to downplay global warming.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/article
---
The satellite-based linear trend 1993–2011 is 3.2 ± 0.5 mm yr−1, which is 60% faster than the best IPCC estimate of 2.0 mm yr−1 for the same interval
---
Red line is the increase, blue area the projections.

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Using an even more alarmist paper, citing the 3rd and 4th IPCC asessments, does not show any "erring strongly on the conservative side".. It simply shows that some are even more alarmist then the previous IPCC claims...And the fact you call the IPCC on the conservative side is simply ridiculous as well as untrue...

The very name Intergovernmental panle on climate change, states that they already assume that climate change is real, and caused by man.

http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtml#.UhuNShtvPSA

That would mean they already assume the liberal side of this issue at least in nature, if not directly..

Bowerbird · Aug 26, 2013

Scientists may have zeroed in on the cause of a mysterious 18-month drop in global average sea level that occurred between 2010 and 2011, pointing to events that occurred on the world’s smallest continent: Australia. New research shows that during those two years, flooding rains in Australia, which resulted from a rare combination of factors, took huge quantities of water out of the oceans without returning it, like a library user with mounting late fees.

Flooding in Toowoomba, Australia, in 2011.
Credit: Tim Swinson/flickr.
The study, which is to be published in a forthcoming issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that peculiarities in Australia’s soils and topography prevented much of the excess rainfall from ever making its way back into the oceans, instead soaking it like a sponge.

As the climate warms, the world’s oceans have steadily risen in recent decades, and the rate of rise has accelerated recently to about 3.2 millimeters per year, or about 1.25 inches per decade. That is because runoff from melting ice sheets and retreating glaciers is making its way into the oceans, and because water expands as it is heated.
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http://www.climatecentral.org/news/...iefly-slowed-sea-level-rise-study-finds-16373

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NOAA finds sea level rise less than half of IPCC claims

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