Probability that trump goes all out at Debate?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by LibChik, Oct 8, 2016.

  1. LibChik

    LibChik Well-Known Member

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    trump the racist has nothing to lose at this point. He was going to lose the election anyway....his chances of winning before this story broke were showing at less than 20%...but now, he's screwed. He's going to lose huge.

    Rance Priebus is now at trump Tower "helping" trump the racist with debate prep...but I have a suspicion that what he's really doing is trying to ensure that the sex offender isn't going to burn the republican party even worse by going all out and flaming in front of the world tomorrow.

    I have a feeling that trump the racist is going to go all out at this point...why not? He's lost the election and now his businesses are in jeopardy. So he's going to dog whistle to his cult of deplorables like never before.

    trump isn't finished destroying the republican party...there's a lot more to come.

    Like I've said many times, the stench of trump's crap is going to be spread all over the republican party for a long time to come...and he's just started to spread it on....
     
  2. Doug_yvr

    Doug_yvr Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This will forever be remembered as the election where Republicans nominated a man who bragged about sexually assaulting women.
     
  3. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Skipping the debate would be his best strategy.

    If he shows up, expect the kamikaze mentality of a rabid cornered rat.
     
  4. LibChik

    LibChik Well-Known Member

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    Not to mention he's a racist, a xenophobe and a moron con-artist who's ripped off citizens all over the country and committed tax fraud.

    There's already women starting to come out saying he assaulted them. The Times has more of his taxes and then looking into fraud that he committed when declaring his losses. His charity is under investigation. He's headed to a fraud case from trump University. He's headed to a case about a rape charge of a 13-year old girl....and it will continue on and on and on.

    This is what happens when you pander to the lowest common denominator of Americans. They elect a candidate who embodies exactly what they are...that's why they idolize him like a god.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'm honestly surprised they haven't canceled it. I'm sure the republicans want to but they have nothing to threaten trump with.

    They're going to reap what they sow. I have a feeling he's going to go off the rails...why not at this point?

    By the way, I hope he goes bankrupt. I don't see how his tacky businesses survive this...he's going to be a pariah.

    That his family will go down with him is awesome...I can't stand the lot of them...they're a gross, disgusting bunch.
     
  5. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    You see a lot of reporting throwing out the idea that Trump is going to go off the rails and bring up the whole Bill Clinton thing.

    The fact is, it is a horrible move for him to show up.

    Maybe he could save the GOP a lot of grief by announcing his resignation from ticket during the debate?
     
  6. LibChik

    LibChik Well-Known Member

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    He came out and said there's zero chance that he's going to quit.

    I expect he's going to seriously expose what he is at debate tomorrow. He was already losing badly, the only chance he has was the debate...that was up until this tape got released....now he's got no chance and his businesses are now at risk.

    So he's going to flame and the republican down tickets should be very scared. I think trump the racist has already burned the republican's chances to hold onto the Senate...now he's putting the republican Congress at risk.

    There's going to be a bunch of rats jumping ship over the next week...and if he performs like i think he's going to tomorrow, that defection will escalate.
     
  7. PARTIZAN1

    PARTIZAN1 Well-Known Member

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    Trumpeizdas,s days as a racist were when he was still playing real estate office with daddy Trumof. There is no evidence that Trumpitt committed tax fraud, well not yet. He is on very quick quick sand with Trump Not A University.
    It will be sad to watch him defend himself against the a rape accusation of xxx a 13 year old.
     
  8. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    I am definitely looking forward to the back and forth if he chooses to reference Bill Clinton.
     
  9. Wrathful_Buddha

    Wrathful_Buddha Well-Known Member

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    It's hard to say. Trump is predictably unpredictable, just like this whole election cycle, so anything is possible. I will definitely be there with my popcorn.

    Yes, the Republican party, as we knew it, is finished, but only because Trump has stolen so many voters from the Democratic party. That's precisely why the race has been so close. I would not say that anything has been decided just yet.
     
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Never seen a presidential election quite like this one ever in my life. That being said, elections are a lot like cars: they have an engine and a tailpipe and either there is gas in the tank or there is not. In other words, the nuts and bolts of electioneering function, or they don't and in Trump's case, they do not.

    Now, to the OP. I wish I could predict what he will do tomorrow night, but he is so friggin bizarre, I would say that anything could happen. In a way, it is irrelevant, because when the massive deluge of polling data showing him tanking more than every before starts to come in, it won't matter.

    I have been saying all along that Clinton will win the women's vote by +20, but I may have been wrong. It may go as high as +35 (63/28/9).

    Among educated White males, Trump is pretty much guaranteed to lose.

    Among uneducated White males, he is going to win, but not by as much as the Right would like.

    Among non-whites, he will get creamed in every possible way.

    Among Jews, Catholics and Muslims it is going to be a rout.

    He is going to lose the protestant vote, but will win the Evangelicals among them, but again, the margin will not be what we saw with Bush, McCain or even Romney.

    By this time next weekend, I fully expect Trump to be hopelessly behind in North Carolina, behind by 6 to 7 in Florida (which is the Florida version of hopelessly behind), behind in Ohio, slightly behind in Georgia and Arizona and again in single digits in Utah. And if the wave goes as I suspect it will, keep your eyes on two sleepers: South Dakota and Alaska.

    Oh, and TX could start to switch colors.

    So, in a way, it's irrelevant what Trump does at Debate 2. But Clinton has a lot to lose. If she maintains the high ground and keeps her foot lovingly on his neck, then she will run away with it. I suspect that she will.

    And finally, I would not be surprised at all were Gary Johnson to perhaps make it into the 3rd debate, after all....
     
  11. LibChik

    LibChik Well-Known Member

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    Statistically, that's not true though. If you look at the voting blocks for trump, they are exactly the same as 2012 was for Romney, except that he's under performing in all except one....uneducated, white males. All the other registration data, follows exactly the same pattern. There is no trump "movement"..its a myth.
     
  12. LibChik

    LibChik Well-Known Member

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    He's already behind in North Carolina.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    These are current. They don't reflect results from this video.

    trump was going to lose anyway. The debate might have stopped some of the bleeding if he had done well, which was unlikely. Now its over.

    The only real question at this point is how badly does trump lose and what effect does that massive loss have on the down ballot races.

    Oh and one more thing, what does he do in the next month, knowing he's going to lose. He could go completely nuts.
     
  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Correct.
     
  14. Wrathful_Buddha

    Wrathful_Buddha Well-Known Member

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    Mmm, I think low turn out is what did Romney in. That will not be a problem this time around. The amount of panic I see on CNN and Bill Maher are a testament to this. They are not comfortable.

    But nobody really knows. I guess we will see on election day.
     
  15. Balto

    Balto Well-Known Member

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    While the 2005 tape reveal is said to sink Trump's campaign, I'm not going to pop the cork just yet on a Trump defeat. Yes, Hillary has regained a slight lead since the last debate, but I would not consider it a means to an end just yet. Reports say Trump has been on the phone with Pence, which could be an indicator Pence could rub off on Trump. So, what you saw at the VP debate could be close to being on display tomorrow. But then again, it is in a town hall environment, not a 1-on-1 televised event. I'm also curious to see whether Hurricane Matthew will be part of the conversation tomorrow night. A photo op of Hillary and Rick Scott would be great, like that of Obama and Chris Christie in the aftermath of Sandy.

    What Hillary needs to do is not do what Tim Kaine did. Rather, she needs to mimic Pence's performance. And act like she did during the first debate. Staying calm, cool, and collected will play well in a town hall debate, we saw how that rolled out when Romney started stammering at the town hall when Obama replied, "Go ahead, Governor." The tax reveals about Trump could also be good ammo, just not in the way Kaine used it. This would put Trump's floppy business record on display. People say because Trump is a businessman, he will be able to fix the economy. This would work perfect to contradict that mindset. It's solid, and validated. So Trump can't say its rigged, or false. That would be an obvious display of denial on his part.
     
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    No. That is a statistical untruth. Mitt Romney got almost 61 million votes. 2 million more than McCain and 1 million less than Bush (2004). His base came out. Sorry, but that old dog won't trot.
     
  17. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    :roflol:

    Trump is toast.

    Even if he dropped out, the GOP would lose massively.

    We will find out on Election Day?

    Kind of like Reagan v Mondale? Got it.
     
  18. Wrathful_Buddha

    Wrathful_Buddha Well-Known Member

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    Those are just raw numbers, not percentages, but no matter. Trump's base has swelled because of all the voters he has stolen from Democrats. He has out Democrated the Democrats.

    I could be wrong, but I think this year's turn out will be much greater. That's why all the media pundits are throwing everything at him but the kitchen sink. They have even reversed their positions lewd behavior. Signs and omens. We will see on election day.
     
  19. Wrathful_Buddha

    Wrathful_Buddha Well-Known Member

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    You might be right.
     

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