Romney appeal in affluent suburbs could change map

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by OldMercsRule, Mar 1, 2012.

  1. OldMercsRule

    OldMercsRule Member

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    "I noted earlier tonight, as the Michigan returns were coming in, that Mitt Romney’s lead in Michigan was due in large part to his strong margins in the five-county metro Detroit area, where Republican voters tend to be relatively upscale—not all rich people from Bloomfield Hills, Romney’s boyhood home, but from the relatively comfortable and competent suburbs in a metro area that has been troubled. The returns at this writing show that almost all of Romney’s statewide margin came from Oakland County, the relatively affluent suburban county just northwest of Detroit, which is the state’s second largest county and the one that cast the most votes in the Republican primary.

    Four years ago Romney carried the five-county metro Detroit area 45%-27% over John McCain; this time he carried it 45%-32% against Rick Santorum. His metro Detroit margin enabled him four years ago to convert a narrow Outstate 35%-32% margin to a convincing 39%-30% victory. His metro Detroit margin this time was enough to overcome a 42%-38% Santorum margin Outstate.

    Are there implications here for the general election. I have a hunch there are. Romney has shown in Michigan as elsewhere a capacity to win votes in affluent areas—which is exactly where (at least in the North) Republicans have been weak in presidential general elections over the last 20 years. Look at it this way: in 1988 George H. W. Bush carried the five-county metro Detroit area 50%-49%--a tiny margin, but one which enabled him, with a 56%-43% Outstate margin that was underwhelming in historic perspective, to carry Michigan. Similarly, the elder Bush, with big margins from affluent suburbanites, carried metro Boston, metro New York, metro Philadelphia, metro Cleveland and metro Chicago, which enabled him to win the electoral votes of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois.

    In contrast, George W. Bush was able to carry only one of these states, Ohio, and was out of contention in 2004 as well as 2000 in Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey and Illinois. To focus on Michigan, the younger Bush carried Outstate Michigan 51%-46% in 2000 and 53%-46% in 2004, running just 5% and 3% in this region behind his father’s 1988 showing. That trend extrapolated statewide would have left him just missing carrying Michigan in 2000 and carrying it in 2004. But in 2000 George W. Bush lost the five-county metro Detroit area by 58%-40% and he lost it by an almost identical 58%-41% in 2004. Both times he lost the target state of Michigan.

    A better showing in metro Detroit—even coming short of carrying the metro area, as the elder Bush did in 1988, and even short of improving on the younger Bush’s showings Outstate—would enable a nominated Mitt Romney to carry Michigan in 2012. And for similar reasons the electoral votes of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, might not be out of reach (New York, Massachusetts and Barack Obama’s Illinois would still, I think, be unavailable, but Ohio would be more available than in 2000 and 2004, when Bush carried it). I think the ingredients for this may be present.

    Affluent suburban voters are not happy with the Obama economic polices and are facing a choice between a Democrat who wants to tax their marginal income at 44% and a Republican (whether it is Romney or Santorum) who wants to tax it at 28%. They are far less concerned than they used to be about the cultural issues which moved them to the left in the 1990s and kept them there up through and including 2008.

    If they were repulsed by the Southern accents of Republican congressional leaders and the Texas twang of George W. Bush in those years, things are different now: Speaker John Boehner (not a major figure in the spotlight) is from the Midwest, and Romney speaks with a regional-neutral Northern accent, less distinctly Midwestern than that of some of us who grew up in Michigan, but nonetheless not at all threateningly Southern.

    Affluent suburbanites are not a target group anyone has focused on much. But there are plenty of them and they tend to be in states with lots of electoral votes currently considered unavailable to Republicans. Mitt Romney’s showing in Michigan, on top of his proven appeal to this demographic—and particularly to affluent women—suggests they could make a difference in November 2012."

    http://campaign2012.washingtonexami...peal-affluent-suburbs-could-change-map/400536

    Hmmmmmmmm................
     
  2. Johnny-C

    Johnny-C Well-Known Member

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    If people trust Romney... they are going to be very disappointed.
     
  3. OldMercsRule

    OldMercsRule Member

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    Do you "trust" any pol? :roll:
     
  4. OldMercsRule

    OldMercsRule Member

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    OH that explains it.... ya voted fer Obamaprompter...... n' yer in yer 50s, so there is no excuse fer lack of brain function.... :fart:

    Does the reverb in the Chicago thug's voice make ya faint like the young girls do?
    :psychoitc: :spin:

    :nana:
     
  5. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    So rich people vote for a rich guy and poor people vote for someone who will give them money. With 46 million people on food stamps Obama is about 80% of the way to victory then, right?
     
  6. Johnny-C

    Johnny-C Well-Known Member

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    The question is, what do you know about certain politicians... which causes you to trust them more/less?

    Romney... I don't trust much at all.
     
  7. CoolWalker

    CoolWalker New Member

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    People trusted Obama and look at where we are now...broke. No one asked him to apologize to anyone for America, but he does it and now troops are being killed by the very people they are training. Were I a company commander I would stand-down all training until the situation was resolved.
     
  8. Johnny-C

    Johnny-C Well-Known Member

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    America was "broke" when Obama stepped into office.

    Now, just look at the improvements to the economy in the last 3 years.

    Please, don't try to sell people who are paying attention to the overall picture, a Fox News talking point.
     
  9. CoolWalker

    CoolWalker New Member

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    Please, show me the improvements in our economy. You are somewhat deluded it appears.
     
  10. OldMercsRule

    OldMercsRule Member

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    Hmmmmmmmmm.......... I see, (I think)..... :roll:

    Did ya know Obamaprompter's mentor was Frank Marshal Davis? N' did that make ya trust the fruit fly from the windy city?

    Did ya know Obamaprompter got his start in politics in Hyde Park from Billy Ayers n' Bernadine Dohrn, (in fact his first job at a Chicago Law firm was at the firm Dohrn werked at). Did that make ya wanna trust the Chicago thug? Hmmmmmmmmmmm?

    Did ya know that Obamaprompter went ta Jerimiah "the bull frog" Wright's church? Got married there, had his daughters baptized there... Does that make a tingle run up yer leg? Do ya trust him sooooooo much more?

    Did ya know that Obamaprompter's only executive experience was runnin' the Annenberg Challange into the ground with zero results, (he blew all the money toooooooooo). Does that make ya trust him even more? Hmmmmmmmm?

    Did ya know that Tony Rezko financed the Obamaprompter Hyde Park mansion with Saddam's oil fer food money? Does that make ya reeeeeeeeeely trust yer Chicago thug pol? :fart:

    Did ya know Michelle's $350,000 per year job was a direct result of Obamaprompter's tax funded earmarks, and they have never hired another to fill the postion once she left? Does that make ya reeeeel proud?

    Do you have a functional brain?
    :eyepopping: :eye:
     
  11. OldMercsRule

    OldMercsRule Member

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    And we are cornsiderably "broker" after three years of his abject failure and total incompetence, n' lack of leadership. :roll:

    Please list them for me. I'm dyin' ta know what ya see as "improvements".... :fart:

    OHHHHHH...... yer payin' attention are ya? burp..... pfffffft.... (a little green house gas fer ya)..... :fart: :sunnysideup:
     
  12. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    Granny says it's `bout time dem 1%'ers havin' to go to the pawn shop like the rest of us 99%'ers...
    :twocents:
    Pawn shops are going upscale for affluent clients
    15 July`12 – Maybe it's the original artwork displayed around the office or the soft lighting, paneled walls, Persian rugs and leather furniture. The receptionist adds to the aura, too. So does the TV screen turned to a financial-news channel.
     

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