The people who control what news stories appear on the nightly news overwhelmingly support president Obama's reelection campaign and have decided to help his cause by reminding us every night that he has some new or growing lead somewhere. That news story of course fills the time that might be spent discussing his latest foreign policy failures or criminal activity in the justice department. It is difficult for Republicans to be optimistic, but the most important detail is the voter turnout and that may be Romney's last hope. 64 members of the US House of Representatives are freshmen members who replaced Democrats in 2010, some by defeating veteran incumbents. Many of them are in swing states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Obviously freshmen congressmen are the most likely incumbents to lose. Therefore those young Republicans have to campaign rigorously to motivate everyone who voted for them in 2010 to go to the polls. It is pretty certain that almost none of their supporters will vote for Obama, so if they win their respective districts, Romney will win those districts as well, and in some cases their states. Also redistricting in several states has given challengers a chance to unseat veteran incumbents, so Republicans who saw no use in voting for a hopeless cause for 20 years suddenly have a chance to make a change in several states. That will increase Republican turnout in those districts to its maximum, and again they surely will not be voting for Obama. Obama also can ride in the coattails of freshmen Democratic Senators who gained their first terms in 2006, but their victories are very much in doubt, so turnout for both parties will be high in several of those states. I think that up to two million people who might not have voted in this election will turn out to support their local Republicans and boost Romney into a nailbiting race that might still be in doubt on November 8.
