Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud ~ Remove redirect/Rule 15 ~ It’s all in the numbers. In both cases, we have a series of observations. The JFK witness deaths are from 1964-77; the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls for six elections from 1988-2008. There are data anomalies in the accumulated evidence. Intuitively, we feel that there must be an underlying explanation. The first step is to record the data in a spreadsheet. We calculate what we would expect the data to reveal, assuming the Null Hypothesis: No JFK Conspiracy; No substantive Election Fraud. After placing the data in spreadsheet tables, we can proceed to perform a mathematical analysis to see if the observations are reasonable (i.e. we accept the Null), based on statistical expectation. The problems are similar. In the Election Fraud analysis, we first need to determine the number of state exit polls which fell outside the margin of error for each candidate. We would expect a near equal split. In the JFK analysis, we need to compare the number of unnatural witness deaths to what would normally be expected based on unnatural mortality rates, number of witnesses for the 14 year time period. The data parameters are limited in scope. - JFK: witness universe, unnatural deaths, time period, mortality rate - Election Fraud: number of elections, exit polls, recorded shares, margin of error In both studies, we seek to determine the probabilities of these discrepancies: - JFK: number of unnatural deaths vs. expected - Election Fraud: number of exit polls exceeding the margin of error vs. expected 1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud We need to calculate the discrepancies between each of the 274 exit polls and the corresponding recorded vote to see how many exceeded the calculated margin of error (MoE). Of the 274 state exit polls, 126 exceeded the MoE, with 123 moving in favor of the Republican and just 3 to the Democrat. At the 95% confidence level, only 14 exit polls were expected to exceed the MoE. The margin of error is a function of the number of exit poll respondents plus an additional 30% cluster factor. For example, the adjusted 3.25% MoE is sum of the calculated 2.50% MoE and 30% (0.75) cluster factor. The probability that 123 of 274 exit polls would exceed the MoE (including a 30% cluster factor) in favor of the GOP is a ridiculous 5E-106 (105 zeros to the right of the decimal point). That is a big fat ZERO. JFK Assassination Witnesses There has been an ongoing controversy over the number of witnesses who died mysteriously ever since the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. The HSCA claimed that the “universe” of material witnesses was unknowable, therefore the calculation was invalid and was not proof of a conspiracy. But in fact the number of witnesses was knowable. Approximately 56 of 800 witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-1977 died suspiciously (13 were called in two investigations). Of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission in 1964, at least 29 died suspiciously (18 unnatural). In three investigations (Garrison/Shaw trial, Church, HSCA) 27 of approximately 250 witnesses called to testify died suspiciously (16 unnatural). Most of the deaths occurred just before their scheduled testimony. We know the finite universe of witnesses, the number and cause of unnatural deaths. We also know the unnatural mortality rates. We need to calculate the expected number of deaths and compare it to the actual number. This is analogous to the actual and expected numbers of exit polls exceeding the margin of error. In the sensitivity analysis, we calculate a probability matrix of unnatural deaths over a range of material witnesses and number of deaths. We can then analyze the effects of these two key factors on the probability. As the number of witnesses (N) increase for a given number (n) of deaths, so does the probability that n deaths will occur. Conversely, as the number of unnatural witness deaths (n) increase for a given number (N) of witnesses, the probabilities will decrease. There were 81 unnatural deaths (11 expected) of 1400 material witnesses over the 14 year period from 1964-77: 46 homicides (1 expected); 23 accidents (7 expected); 8 suicides (2 expected) and 4 unknown (none expected). The sensitivity analysis table of unnatural deaths and corresponding matrix for homicides shows that the probability of unnatural deaths is ZERO in all plausible combination scenarios. There are some who claim there were many more than 1400 witnesses. But other than the 1400 listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there is no comparable list of material witnesses. The FBI claimed 25,000 persons were interviewed. But how many were material witnesses who had information related to the assassination? Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, the probability of 46 homicides is 1 in 265,000.
