Soaring economic optimism could torpedo Dems' 'blue wave' midterms

Bad news for Democrats: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) tax bill “crumbs” are feeding a monster rally in optimism across the country. Approval of the GOP tax cuts climbs steadily higher, fueling faster growth and increasing investment and undermining Democrats’ chances of a “blue wave” in November.

A new survey shows confidence among small business owners at a record-high of 62 in the first quarter, up five points from last year’s fourth quarter. The CNBC/SurveyMonkey poll shows that the number of people who think the Republican tax bill will help their firms has doubled compared to three months ago.

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...-optimism-can-torpedo-dems-blue-wave-midterms

Not just small firms owners, consumers are also feeling increasingly upbeat. A recent survey from the University of Michigan reported consumer sentiment at 99.9 in February, up from 95.7 in January and considerably higher than consensus expectations of 95.5.

Without a doubt, the public’s cheerier view of the tax cuts passed in December is helping. A recent New York Times poll showed that 51 percent of the country now approves of the bill, up from 46 percent in January and 37 percent in December, could be approaching the low 60's by voting time.

Because of the Fake News, only 33 percent of respondents said they expect a tax cut, but then when 80 percent of the country saw the change in their paychecks, the results were astounding.

The problem for Democrats is that they run and campaign on resentment and misery: Rising optimism creates a virtuous circle, leading to the kind of investment and spending by families and businesses that creates higher demand, more jobs and increased wages.

As the country warms to the GOP tax cuts and to the resulting bounce in the economy, Democrats will have to explain why every single member of their caucus voted against the bill. They will also have to answer for having misled the country, saying that most middle-class Americans would see their taxes rise.

“If you like the tax cuts you can keep them — but not if you vote Democrat.” Clips of Nancy Pelosi dismissing $1,000 bonuses as “crumbs” continue to flash across the nation’s TV screens, highlighting just how out of touch Democrats are. She, essentially, cut a bunch of GOP campaign commercials for the Fall Campaign.

 

I don't think economics will be central to how people vote. The sense that Republicans have been to extreme and are racist is driving democratic turn out and forcing moderates to vote democratic. That will be the key in the election. If the Republicans were not defending only about 11 Senate seats or if House seats were not more competitive they would be in real trouble.

 

Tax cuts that were not paid for stimulate the economy. Say it ain't so. Keynes would be proud, the GOP has finally admitted that Kenynesian stimulus works.

 

Actually it started with Reagan. Rhetoric aside Republicans have not stressed deficit reduction in a long time. I think you would find deficits higher in Republican administrations than Democratic ones.

The Republican emphasis is on economic growth. Few now believe supply side models including market economist.

 

BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!


"Republicans have not stressed deficit reduction in a long time."

Except every day of the Obama presidency!


"Republicans have not stressed deficit reduction in a long time."

Oh, man. That's priceless. I'm going to be laughing my ass off all day over that one.

That insanity is right out of Orwell.

"We have always been at war with eastasia."


"Republicans have not stressed deficit reduction in a long time."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9C0IEZL6qc

 

I respectfully disagree. I think people care a great deal about the economy and their personal financial situations. It is one of the biggest driving forces behind how I myself vote as well. Meanwhile, aside from the extreme partisans who are loyally and mindlessly glued to their far-left media sources, I think the average person has begun to wise up to the media's manipulation and/or they've just become numb to it from the overload (like with the boy who cried wolf.) I'm a moderate independent and I find the behavior of Democrats to be pushing me farther and farther away from the party.

 

I agree the economy matters politically. I don't think it matters now because turn out drives elections and much of the public simply don't bother to vote. Also fear of trump has become a major factor in those who vote.

Its nice to respectfully disagree. I think if we were in a major recession (or if more voted) the economy would have more impact.

 

Want me to explain what the words "rhetoric aside" mean?

 

We wuz never seryus bout spendin. We wuz just kiddin.

Until the next Demcrat, o'course!

 

It means that Republicans say they support deficit reduction, but do not vote that way.

Here is something basic to check that argument. Compare deficits in the Reagan administration, the two Bush's, and Trump to Clinton and Obama. Which party had the higher deficits.

The reason that deficits were higher in Republican administration is that they spent a lot more on defense and made major tax cuts which reduced revenue. If you doubt that look at revenue. There is a reason that Republicans put a trillion extra dollars in deficit language in the tax cuts. Because everyone understands the tax cuts will cut revenue.

Look at the budget numbers. Or even better look at spending levels in those administration.

 

Russell's diagnosis wasn't from a "we" perspective. No Republican would ever claim that they weren't serious about debt reduction.

 

I can't figure out how to post images here so go to this link.

https://www.google.com/search?q=def...AUICigB&biw=1920&bih=974#imgrc=0SFyO3gTDSTXLM:

 

I own my own business, and I remember the misery of 2009 and then again in 2013. At one point I sacrificed my house and lived in essentially a closet in my office in a desperate attempt to keep my business afloat, and at another point I nearly gave up and closed my business entirely because things were so slow and looking hopeless.

My business centers around the sale and maintenance of a luxury item -- I'm very "in tune" to the economy and the impact of consumer optimism.

I voted for Obama in 2008. I never really blamed him for 2009. However, I nearly could have cried when he was reelected in 2012. Consumer optimism went down the toilet.

We now face a wave of young pampered social justice activist type voters who were not even around/aware to vote in 2009, and some who weren't even around/aware in 2013. That is a little frightening....

My business picked up so much after Trump's election that sometimes I almost have to stop and pinch myself. While we have pockets of folks obsessed with whether they'll still get their welfare checks, or which gender bathrooms to use, or which protest to join up with... I sit here going through my books grinning from ear-to-ear.

I voted for Trump but I was never a die-hard Trump supporter. I was more of an anti-Hillary voter. But damn I'm happy with my choice right now...!

 

It’ll be optimistic all the way up until the inflation hammer comes down like the fist of angry god.

 

I hope they proceed with extreme caution in raising interest rates.

 

True, if the economy is good, there USUALLY would be more support for the Republicans.

Problem is that Trump effect might backfire. Here Trump sits with a good economy, yet an approval rating in the mid forties.
The stock market has moved sideways for the last month - inflation scares the elderly and business like nothing else and we have daily weird crap coming out of the White House.

I'm not going to lay bets on anything till a week before the election. Too many variables.

 

Why is that?

Polling is known for having difficulty measuring his support, he won the election with favorability in the 30's which was supposed to be impossible I suspect that its easier for pollsters to measure urban population and they haven't figured out how to adjust for that skew.

Well, actually, 2% 3 year CD's is a real problem for the elderly, that is way below the assumed rate of return while they were building their nest eggs. As a result they are clamped down on their spending , scared to death that they will outlive their savings.

Trump's policy results are much more popular than he is, if Dems were smart, and they aren't they would be formulating a Plan B that offers real attractive policy alternatives to American Working and Middle Class voters, rather that thinking they can simply run the election as personal referendum on Trump, because the American People do not personally hate him, like you do, in fact, we find your personal fixation with him, amusing, and laugh with him when he trolls you.

 

They raise interest rates so they can slow the market's growth. That has the benefit of making Trump look foolish, besides bringing in more revenue to pay down the debt. It's a part of the plan. Dems just wanted to see if they could shake up the progress made. They did.

Imagine having zero savings, zero pensions, and poorly funded social security. My heart bleeds for them and their 401ks, their pensions, their full sosh and their part-time job to kill some time and add to savings. Yeah......



As to the op, don't worry. Pelosi and Schumer will rally the left to raise taxes on the rich, which will trickle down to the poor and middle classes in the form of higher cost of living expenses. Yeah, they'll get the rich good. That will help the dems get elected, then the hammer will fall and it will be blamed on conservatives. Oh yeah.........

 

I think there is a bunch of pension money in there chasing yield, that has no business there.

Dems look foolish trying to run the midterms on Trump hate, they think that because they hate him so violently that everyone does, but actually we enjoy watching Trump troll them. Trump may not be popular, but his policy results most certainly are.

That's nice.

Running on tax hikes? Great idea, after all, it worked great for Mondale!

 

It will draw the votes of illegals to push them over the top. There weren't as many then.

 

This sums up the democrats blue wave perfectly



The democrats are going to get *******ed.

 

Yesterday, while finally renewing my very much expired car registration, I was rather astounded to find out that there was no penalty for paying late. When asking about the cost of purchasing a truck second hand, the lady said that I just had to pay a sales tax, and when I was again astounded to find out it was only 2%, she asked if I was from California.

She then went on to tell me that I best keep that liberal bullshit where it belongs.

A black woman, who worked for government, was a Republican because she understood their policies benefited her. The only thing that everyone wants, and makes everyone happy, regardless of background, is bigger paychecks.

 

You realize that Presidents don't write budgets, right?

That Clinton and Obama "reduced" deficit spending because the GOP forced them too.

Reagan and both Bushs had serious economic issues to weather, and Bush Jr, well he had a lot on his plate.

When the GOP controls Congress, deficits generally go down, and when Democrats control Congress, deficits generally rise.

 

Larry Sabato

✔@LarrySabato

No D wave in sight in these Axios-SurveyMonkey Senate polls. https://www.axios.com/axios-surveymonkey-big-warning-signs-senate-democrats-09986026-50aa-46df-8094-574cfe5065a3.html …

4:56 AM - Mar 8, 2018

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