The Final Stretch : E-Day

There's no need for him to look at polls. He is looking at early voting data, which is a much smarter way to gauge how things are going, imo... Personally, I completely dismiss all polling data as largely meaningless, even the polling that I "like more than other polling".

I found it a bit odd as well, as I personally think that the exact opposite will actually happen, but I do understand and respect where he is coming from.

IF so, then yes.... but I can all but guarantee that many of those polls are MILES off from reality... Biden +17 in WI?? hahahaha gimme a break... In actuality, I expect Trump to win WI by about 2-3 points, which would make that particular poll about 20 points off... Even much of the polling that has WI going for Biden by 6-10 points would be 8-13 points off...

To explain why I have made the map that I have made (Trump winning 326-212), I would have to explain what is happening in a few particular States...

FLORIDA: Trump is KILLING IT in the early voting there. He is on pace to get out of early voting about 100K votes ahead of where he was after it in 2016 when he won the State by 113K votes... The Miami-Dade area in particular (as well as Palm Beach) are both looking very well for him compared to 2016, and he is actually winning the in person early voting in those counties... He has even made gains within Broward County itself from his 2016 levels. He's on pace to win FL by at least 2.5-3 points... And then there's a little known "factoid" that, since 1968, numerous important-to-win States tend to track in the same political direction that FL tracks...



IOW, a strong Trump showing in FL, which seems to be happening according to the early return data there, is likely to translate across numerous other States as well, IF past patterns continue...

NORTH CAROLINA: Trump has good early voting numbers in this State as well, as Dems are currently only leading by 270K. In 2016, they had a 310K lead on election day and they ended up losing it by almost 4 points... The black share of the early voting electorate is currently only at 19.5%, down from 21% in 2016, and Trump is going to increase his share of that 19.5%, so that's a double whammy for Dems... To compare, when Obama won NC in 2008 by 1 point, blacks made up over 23% of the electorate...

Then I'll just add a little blurb about WI, since I live there... In 2016, Trump was aided by the fact that Clinton was so disliked by Dane/Milwaukee Counties that they didn't turn out for her at their usual levels, since his numbers in the Milwaukee suburbs were down a lot as well... The high population areas of WI weren't happy with either candidate, but the rural north LOVED Trump, so Trump's gains in the rural north (from Romney levels) helped push him over the top...

This year, I sense that the Dane County votes are coming back for Biden, but I don't sense that the Milwaukee votes are coming back for him all that much, and I think that Trump will also eat away a bit from the Dem's share of those votes. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee suburbs are coming back home to Trump, and I sense that he will gain votes in the Fox Valley region. Those gains should increase his win margin from last time (I think up to about 2-3 points).

All in all, things are looking quite good for Trump... and that's not even getting into the fact that the youth vote and black vote is down for Dems this cycle (at least in NC), and the youth vote is significantly down in MI... I've also "heard through the grapevine", but not confirmed for myself, that the turnout this cycle appears to be "whiter, older, and less college educated" than the prior cycle, which also bodes well for Trump.

 

It's called "wishful thinking." They seem to be repeating propaganda they've been fed by rightwing sources. Most couldn't even begin to explain why they believe Republican support is underestimated.

There was some underestimating in 2016, but not that much.



The polls had Clinton up 3.3% in the popular vote in 2016 and she won by 2.1%. It should be noted, too, the surprise emails and Comey saying the FBI would be investigating Hillary were not a factor in some poll responses.

 

Indeed.

 

Maybe you should read my post #76...

National popular vote is not how we elect Presidents, so it is completely irrelevant.

You are going to be VERY disappointed in a half a week when the polling is WAY off and Trump wins in a landslide...

 

Yes, please let us elect Joe and Kamala and take the House and Senate also. After all we are going to need an army of volunteers to carry out the agenda.

1. First on the list is to collect all guns from private citizens so that they cannot be used to defend themselves against the agenda.

2. Please start writing down names and locations of anyone who speaks badly about the party so they can be re-educated in political correctness according to us. It is the duty that higher education set up vetting panels to screen invited speakers on their campuses. Anyone caught listening to unapproved radio or television should be taught a lesson by smashing their radio, tv, or phone.

3. Volunteers will be needed to scan all all books and written material that is offensive to the party's agenda and it's minority citizens.

4. All corporations and small business will hire minorities first and then old white people last.

5. All houses and business will convert to green energy by the end of 2022.

6. Automobiles that use carbon burning fuels will cease to be allowed after 2021.

7. All judges will submit their resignation and be rehired by the peoples party.

8. All previous electors of the opposition party shall be tried as enemy's of the state and punishment handed out by a panel headed up by Adam Shiff.

9. All banking and monetary police will be under the supervision of Elizabeth Warren.

10. All private health care plans will now come under the control of the government to be headed by Bernie Sanders.

11. All education and curriculum will be under the party's agenda.

12. All law enforcement will come under the guild lines of the party.

13. All citizens will be relieved of personal responsibility for their maintenance and all their actions will be monitored by the party.

14. No citizen will leave the plantation without permission from the party.

 

You haven't presented cites for the results you're using to make your claims.

The point is that even the national polls were quite accurate in 2016. They were misused, however, by poll aggregators, not the pollsters themselves, to predict the election outcome. Key states like Florida may have had 75 or fewer voters represented in the poll results. That's way too small to predict the outcome in a state where the winner takes it by a percent or two.

 

Democrats aren't going to round up guns. This is paranoid BS.

And on and on.

Egads.

 

They’re not? Because I’m pretty sure Beta Orourke said they were.

And lookie lookie who Biden promised to put in charge of gun control... Beta Orourke.

https://billofrightsinstitute.org/e...to-put-beto-orourke-in-charge-of-gun-control/

 

Then why did Biden say it? Gonna put Beto in charge. Remember? Are you calling Joe a liar?
Here we have a corrupt politician who is in bed with the not only the Russians but the Ukrainians and Chinese as well. I already have my daughter, who is going to Vegas next week, to lay a $100 down if she can that Biden will not finish out his term. Kamala must be licking her lips knowing they have enough to impeach him if he's elected. Right out of the Lenin/Stalin playbook.

 

To a lefty like him, truths are lies, tomatoes are vegetables, fossils are fuel, and beyond burgers are meat...

Such people are in full denial of truth.

 

The SAS estimates there are almost 400m guns in this country. Good luck rounding them up to anyone who might try it.

If you're going to be paranoid about something, try the Asian Giant Hornet...


They've made their way to the U.S. The bug po-leece attached a radio device to one of 'em and tracked it back to the nest...



No messin' with these suckers.

Feel better now? Beto ain't coming for your guns.

 

So you don’t think Joe Biden putting the man, whose only claim to fame is saying “we’re going to take your guns”, in charge of gun control is a clear and unequivocal message?

I think that’s fairly ostrich-like of you

 

Oh, please--you're spouting propaganda from a rightwing echo chamber.

Save your money. No President has ever been impeached and convicted. Richard Nixon might have made it if he hadn't quit.

Joe is old; he might die. Kamala could get the top spot that way. It's still not s good bet he'll die in four years if his health is reasonable now.

BTW, I never supported a Democrat before this time. Not one.

But Trump has to go. He's a false prophet. The average guy needs a champion...



... but Trump isn't it. Joe isn't either, btw.

That red line above is the wage earner getting a 10% raise over 41 years. And that's full-time workers. Part-time workers have likely lost money.

 

During Obama's first campaign, and for eight years after, Republicans cried bloody murder about how he was coming for their guns, any minute now.

*yawn*

Scare tactics are boring.

 

There are 400m guns. You figure it out--they'll never round up even a fraction of them.

Besides, with 3D printing technology getting better and better, people will be able to make a quality weapon in a few years. Gun confiscation is a waste of time, just like trying to stop abortion.

This stuff (anti-gun and anti-abortion) sure keeps people at each other's throats.

 

But that’s not what would happen. Let’s assume they pack the court and put a majority of Uber liberal justices who would refuse to strike down bans on firearms... hypothetically. Cause we know they would never do that in real life right? Wink wink

They wouldn’t send the police to take your guns. They would require you to register your firearms first and if you’re found with an unregistered firearm it would be a felony. After they got a registration of firearms and a massive list of all the people who were willing to register, they then make handguns illegal and demand everyone on the registry hand over their handguns or face prosecution. They wouldn’t need to come knock on your door and take your gun. Most people would give them up rather than risk a felony conviction.

 

Geezuz, you're going to get your knickers in a knot over what isn't going to happen.

The party that bans abortion or confiscates guns will lose the political middle. That's why they don't do it.

 

Trump urges his supporters to 'watch' the polls. How states are countering fears of voter intimidation.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...ountering-fears-n1244569?cid=eml_nbn_20201030


People spying on each other?? Red vs Blue?? Voter intimidation?? None of this is truly 'American". Fostering distrust between people is a recipe for disaster. Add guns to the mix.......and one can ask: what happened to democracy.......as it was designed to be?? Are the fissures not big enough now due to the divisiveness coming from the top??

re: guns. Guns have become an integrated part of of US culture. Why the paranoia about having them taken away?? Why the insecurity??

 

Interesting that abortion and guns are in the same category......

 

Texas smashes voter turnout record with 9 million ballots already cast

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...allots-election-n1245482?cid=eml_nbn_20201030


Rather remarkable. But this whole election is out of the ordinary.

 

Making these verboten really ticks off some people. The people in the middle aren't inclined to say no to guns or abortion because they know little good comes from denying people something they see as important.

 

Ok, I misunderstood. Based on your definition of "grossly off", Biden can win even if the polls are "grossly off". Now please define what constitutes "grossly off".

I've done no such thing. I told you my view of the polling, and you're basically saying you know what I think better than I do. I admitted I misunderstood your position; you should do the same.

 

I'm not saying they won't try, but taking guns will cause no end of problems. Same with abortion. It's hard to find a majority who want to do either one.

 

so WHAT is the REAL issue??

 

Society needs a very light touch in these areas.