The Futility of the Search For Extraterrestrial Intelligence

Well, the values of the equation get tweaked every so often as we discover more about the universe.

 

That criticism can apply to your own OP's statistical assessment. The best we can do is speculate, about the variables which we plug in, to arrive at some probability assessment. Even then, we don't know that we are not leaving out some crucial component, of which science is currently unaware.

Personally, with all the evidence that we currently have extra-terrestrial crafts visiting our own planet, it seems bizarrely stupid that we, as a species, would not be cooperatively studying that phenomenon, with priority over searching elsewhere in the galaxy.

 

Imho, the fundamental dimension we actually know about is the chance of life in the first place.

We have NO idea what that is. And, we can't guess about that when we have only one example, an example that took place a LONG time before humans evolved and about which we know very little or nothing.

 

We have zero evidence of extra terrestrial craft visiting our planet.

I see no justification for thinking that the world is not examining these various events with great seriousness, as no country's defense department is going to just ignore that - least of all our own.

 

That is merely your opinion, which is extremely ill-informed. Let me put it this way: if we had the exact same evidence that a given person had committed a murder, that person would be convicted, after the shortest jury deliberation on record.

Once more, you are allowing your assumptions to replace having any knowledge of the issue. As a matter of fact, many former officials have said, in televised interviews, that we ARE, and have been, essentially ignoring the situation. These include former U.S. Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid. Also, a former Undersecretary of Defense, for Intelligence, Chris Mellon. Check out the program, "Unidentified," led by the former director of our, then, secret AATIP program, that had been tasked with investigating UFOs, Luis Elizondo. If you are not willing to bother looking at the evidence, it is really pointless to begin a back-and-forth with you, about whether or not evidence exists.

 

Evidence for committing murder will never be the same as scientific evidence! Until there is scientific evidence of alien visitors everything uttered by anyone is an opinion...including you.

Every UFO sighting, every anomaly anywhere near the US, all of which would be considered potential national security issues until proven otherwise, are and will be thoroughly investigated by the US government. Why do you suppose in some UFO cases military aircraft are dispatched to check it out? It is guaranteed 'they' are on it...

 

The irony, here, is that you discount any evidence, no matter how strong it appears, because it is not absolutely positive proof. But then you use much, much weaker evidence, to support your own belief that the government is "in on it."

I am not saying that no one in the government has anything to do with UFOs; I am repeating what authorities, from government, like the ones I cited-- Harry Reid, Chris Mellon, Luis Elizondo, et al-- are saying: that we are largely ignoring this threat. Recall how President Clinton said he had asked about, & could get no info on, UFOs or ETs. The point is that this should be a major initiative, in cooperation with the rest of the world (not some secret op, run by a few, anonymous people).

That we do not have this technology, ourselves, is once again the opinion of experts, such as the person who long led Lockheed Martin's division that developed the most cutting edge technology. As with Will Readmore, it sounds as if you are merely making assumptions, w/o being truly willing to examine the other side of the argument.

 

What technology are you talking about?

There is no proof that the Navy vids show technology we don't have.

And again, the fact that the DoD isn't divulging their view of ET's flying around Earth does NOT mean that they are ignoring what would absolutely be of critical interest to our military - and that of every other military.

 

I already told you it is pointless to discuss this with someone who is going to speak out of ignorance, yet refuses to educate himself. I directed you to the show, created by former director of our secret AATIP program (Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program), as well as a former Undersecretary of Defense, for Intelligence, Unidentified. Had you watched the program for any length of time, you would have seen these vids being shown to the Lockheed Martin expert, who I mentioned, in the post to which you replied. I don't know what possible qualifications you even could have that would rival this person's. But, as you have not offered any accreditation for your opinions, on this matter, your contradicting the expert opinions I've seen, by saying, "There is no proof that the Navy vids show technology we don't have," is meaningless. I can say nothing else but that you are wrong (wherever you got your info). But if you will not watch the program, & see the eminently-qualified experts opining on this...don't expect me to explain this to you, a third time.


BTW, in one of the fairly early episodes, they have a meeting with Italian government officials, who confirm that they have been involved in fights against the unidentified crafts. And, to remind you, former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, also says that these craft are not ours. But you know better, right?

 

You can't say "these craft" and otherwise define a category that may or may not contain something of interest.

If you post a specific example, THEN there is something to talk about.

But, you can't do that.

So, instead you demand that I prove that EVERY claim EVER made could not possibly be true!!!

And, that's absolutely ridiculous. For example, maybe we DO find an alien craft some day - even though nothing like that has been found so far.

UFOs are unidentified. The phenomena often at least appear to be up in the air - thus called "flying". And, they might be objects, or they might just appear to be objects.

Every time they have been identified they are no longer UFOs. They are hubcaps, garbage can lids, weather balloons, commercial aircraft flights, etc.

That's what you've got!

 

Your thinking, that if we cannot touch it with our hands, it is then impossible to contend that it might be real, is frankly, idiotic. By the same logic, I could say that you cannot prove that our sun is real.

But, once more, your pronouncements about what you think I, "have," are nothing more than your clearly prejudiced preconceptions. Your words would have more value, had you at least taken the time to review the evidence. Then, if you could say, Harry Reid's beliefs are misplaced because...and Chris Mellon is misled because...and Luis Elizondo is wrong because...and the former director of top-secret, cutting edge aeronautic technology at Lockheed Martin is in error because...and all those military pilots are mistaken because...then, at least, we would have a basis for discussion. I have pointed you to a source, which you have ignored. I see no point in my trying to serve up little bits of that info to you, more directly, here for, it is true, one can lead a horse to water, but cannot make him drink. If your mind is the least bit open to the idea, I've told you where to look.

 

We have solid evidence that our sun is real. And, not just because we can see a big glowing blob in the sky. We do NOT have evidence that any of these claimed UFOs is actually a vehicle from outer space.

I am NOT saying that those pilots are in error in describing the phenomena as they saw it. But, it has been shown that while their reports were accurate, the assumptions of causes was NOT accurate.

And, that's the issue.

I know there are lots of reports - there always have been. And, while most are absolute frauds and lies, there are those that are accurate descriptions - like the ones from those Navy pilots.

The catch is that these sighting reports are NOT proof. Sightings are never proof. This isn't true simply for UFOs - its a general principle.

 

We not only see them; they show up on radar.

I never said it was absolute PROOF. I said that there was good EVIDENCE for that supposition. You understand the difference, don't you? But yet, you believe your attitude of ignoring the evidence, until it absolutely proves itself, apparently (since you don't view this phenomenon as something credible to be considered by, "science"), is the intelligent one. To stick with our sun analogy, so would you have poo-pooed all those who contended that the sun was real for the millennia before we had scientific proof of it?

 

Yes, the weather balloon that the Navy pilot saw was most definitely on his radar. The problem is that it was a WEATHER BALLOON!!! It didn't LOOK like a weather balloon to the Navy pilot, but that is what it was.

You need a new analogy. There were numerous reasons why the Biblical and other early cosmologies were discarded long ago. Do I "poo-poo" Abraham, et al? No.

I certainly don't suggest that the more credibly of these reports shouldn't be examined. But, there is NO CHANCE that we should be accepting a sighting such as the Navy pilot sightings as evidence of ET. After the sighting comes the analysis. You can't just skip that.

 

You are, once more, creating your own argument for me, out of your imagination. Where do I say that we should just accept sightings at face value? Please quote this, from me.

To return to factual matter, my contention, from the start, has been the same as Harry Reid's and all those others, who you have not bothered to review-- hinting at the disingenuousness of your claim about, "analysis"-- that we should be investigating these things. And, despite your now saying the same thing, that was not your initial reaction: you claimed both that we had no evidence, & that we were already seriously on top of this, do you remember? Then, I informed you that, according to all these government experts, the opposite was true. I gave you a credible source to use, in revising your false assumption. From all appearances, you have ignored this resource, and are now, instead, taking for yourself, MY ASSERTION, and pretending that you are somehow arguing against my position, by restating my point of view as your own, and fabricating a position for me, out of whole cloth.

It is really quite impolite if you, to say the least, to so poorly read (or comprehend) others' posts, before you begin erroneously responding to them. Here is our conversation:

While my position, vis a vis yours, seems pretty clear, above, you nevertheless replied to my subsequent response, to a different poster, who shared your attitude.

Yet you return to your original position, as if I had given you no response.

And now you are telling me that we should investigate the claims? Well, I guess I should consider it a victory, to have won you over, at least in your words, to my point of view, despite your failing to acknowledge that this IS my position, and always has been.

 

I don't know where you are going with this. Obviously, that is not our full conversation. You made your "sun" analogy, for example, totally missing the point of what evidence is and how it may be used.

You've accused me of not accepting evidence, etc.

And, yes. I have NOT accepted evidence that I have found in the press and other places that talk about this issue.

I believe these events ARE being analyzed. For example, there are analyses of the Navy info. I don't know of any cases that aren't being analyzed. For most of them, independent civilians have done a great job of debunking them. It's not as if there isn't enough analysis power being applied.

Then, there are posters who claim the military isn't watching. I just find that ridiculous. Our military watches everything in this spectrum, as it may come from Earthly sources. AND, they are never going to tell us what they think, as anything they could possibly say would be a security problem.

So, what is it that you really want?

 

This is HILARIOUS, Will Readmore. Do you know how ridiculous that is? How would you, "know of any cases," at all, if they weren't, "being analyzed?" And, in fact, beyond the ludicrous idea that you would know, the videos released by the Navy, which they said they could not explain, they also said that they ARE NOT ATTEMPTING TO INVESTIGATE. So you do know of cases that are not being looked into, whether or not you realize it.

As to your not knowing where I "am going with this"-- my quoting our conversation, in my last post, clearly shows that it has had nothing to do with ME trying to accuse you of something; it has been all about you trying to attack my giving credence to UFO reports, on the whole. I only responded to your fallacious contentions by stating the fact that you were clearly not availing yourself of the evidentiary source that I cited-- is this not true? So your masquerading in the attire of umbrage, over being "accused," of something, is completely unwarranted.

I will point out, in closing, that my belief that the far most likely explanation for UFOs, despite all the false sightings, will involve, at its core, extra-planetary craft, has a much stronger foundation, than your belief "that these events are being analyzed," which, I doubt you have concluded from research or direct knowledge, making it an idea that you are just taking, unscientifically, on faith. (I will mention for readers who missed it, earlier, that former Senator Harry Reid, & Undersec'y of Defense, Chris Mellon, dispute Will Readmore on this).

 

Once amateur detectives clearly show that the sighting was of a weather balloon, NO agency is going to spend time on it. At that point, the game is OVER.

So, now you state a conclusion that is just plain NOT backed by evidence - that "at its core" there are alien craft visiting us?

My own view is that if aliens exist it is highly unlikely that they can reach Earth. The distances are unimaginably gigantic.

But, I AM willing to consider evidence.

Let's just remember that, as each of these reports gets debunked, they are NOT EVIDENCE anymore. The Navy tape of the weather balloon is NOT evidence of UFOs. And, it doesn't need to be analyzed by ANYONE, as it was debunked immediately.

The only thing to analyze about those tapes is how to improve hardware and training so pilots don't get confused like they did.

 

WTF are you talking about? Are you saying that one of these recent videos, that had left the Navy with no clue of an explanation, was definitively shown to be a weather balloon? Can you please supply a link? And are you saying that you are willing to take a non-professional's, maybe even a non-scientist's, view, over the official experts-- that's gotta be a first, right?

Even if this improbable scenario turns out to be true, your reaction is illogical: these were three DIFFERENT sightings, from three incidents, separate in time & place. So showing that ONE had been weather balloon, I hope you are able to grasp, would have no relevance whatsoever regarding the other two.*

You really do need to take remedial steps to improve your reading comprehension skills, Mr. Readmore. I had offered that as my opinion of the most likely of speculated alternatives (e.g., satellites, weather balloons, ball lightning, hoaxes, secret U.S. technology, foreign but human-based technology, mass hallucinations). Secondly-- and God, is your obtuseness becoming tiresome-- my belief is NOT, "backed by (no) evidence." I have mentioned just a bit of it, several times, and yet you are too thick, apparently, to even allow the information into your head. Do you not believe that fmr. Senate Majority Leader Reid, has more information on the subject than either of us? Because the opinion I stated-- that we should be seriously studying this-- is almost verbatim, his opinion, as well. He says so not just on the show, run by former government insiders, "Unidentified," but also on a recent episode of 60 Minutes. I could go through all of it again, but if none of it gained admittance to your consciousness, in any of its prior listings, there is no reason to believe you will acknowledge it now. I will just point out that you understand the concept of having a personal opinion on something that is not absolutely known:

Your appraisal of the, "likelihood," of alien visitation, cannot be based on evidence, other than that it seems a broad gap between stars, to your own, limited, human perspective. You can no more solve that equation with that meager bit of info, than you could tell me the degrees of all the inner angles, in a triangle which has one side measuring 6 feet. Yet, you have an opinion. The idea that this view of yours is more evidence-based than my own opinion, is a joke.

If this is not so, tell me about the numbers of planets that can or could support life, their locations, what was/is the apex of intelligent life that developed there, at what point that occurred, and what is/was the extent of their technology, understanding, and resources, as it applies to space travel.

* I will add the caveat that, of course, there is the possibility-- please look up this word, and understand its meaning in my sentence, before you try again to restate my words-- that, if these videos can be easily debunked, that their release was part of a disinformation operation.

 

No fooling-- a debunked sighting doesn't need investigating? That is a totally unnecessary paragraph, and does nothing for your argument; I have already acknowledged that a large percentage, probably the majority, of sightings, are explainable. That is irrelevant to those, which are not.

This is a patently false claim, coming from someone who only seems to pay attention to a UFO report, when it is proven bogus. Have you considered any of the evidence I have enumerated for you, from UNIDENTIFIED?

 

I don't discount anything! I rely on those much smarter than me with the technology to evaluate these things. Fact is THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE of alien visitors! In my heart I know alien life will eventually be discovered but my logical brain must wait for scientific evidence...

 

I haven't seen you post something called "unidentified".

So far, I don't know of anything that hasn't been debunked or has no totally reasonable explanation.

 

If you were seriously interested in UFOs and alien visitors, you would investigate the claims being made.

The distance between stars is an issue of physics, with my "own limited perspective" (and yours) being totally irrelevant. Physics is shown to be unchanging across our universe. The distance to various stars and galaxies is measured in a number of different ways. Only the close stars can be measured by using angles along with Earth's movement.

Obviously, the number of planets in the universe is not known. And, I have NO idea why you would ask questions about stuff like "the apex of intelligent life that developed there".

There is every reason to believe that the Navy tapes were real. We even know who the pilots were, as I understand it. The Navy has NOT proposed that the objects in these tapes were unidentified or unidentifiable. They issued NO claim about the possibility of alien connection.

You should NOT claim there is a disinformation campaign by the Navy unless you have evidence - which you do not have.

 

To prevent us from going in circles, you need to define your terms. You say that you do not discount anything, and that you rely on people with more knowledge & expertise than yourself. However, I gave you a source to the opinions of just such experts, and people in the know. You make no mention of them in your reply, in seeming contradiction to your claim that you discount nothing. So I am taking that to actually mean that you are highly selective of what you do not discount. More specifically, I would guess (since you have shed no light on where you get your ideas, in your posts) that you merely subscribe to whatever is the societally prevailing view. But make no mistake, there are credible people, who disagree with that view; and if you do not bother to listen to their case then you are, indeed, discounting evidence, without even considering it. Once again, the voices I mentioned included the former, long-time Senator & Majority Leader Harry Reid; a relatively recent Undersecretary of Defense, for Intelligence, Christopher Mellon; the former head of our government's then-secret AATIP program, investigating UFOs, Luis Elizondo; and the long-time head of the elite group at Lockheed Martin, that was in charge of their developing cutting-edge technology, which worked with the U.S.government on top secret projects. If this is not enough for you to give the show Unidentified, a look, then your actions show just how serious is your interest in getting the best picture of the truth from, "those much smarter than me with the technology to evaluate these things." You can mindlessly repeat the phrase, "there is no scientific evidence..." all you want; my response will remain: how would YOU know?

To take your words in their best possible light, to mean that there is not definitive PROOF of aliens, I never disputed that. But nor is there proof of what IS generating the unexplainable portion of UFO reports. And even the government, from a headline I recently glanced, is not discounting the possibility of alien craft. This is why I advocate, like Senator Reid and many others, our investigating this unknown, in a more open, and cooperative way, with the rest of the world. Do you have an argument against that?

Otherwise, I don't really know what you are objecting to, then. It is clear that something is generating the ongoing reports. If you were more knowledgeable about the span of these reports, including events witnessed by literally millions, and including UFO Armadas, then it would be hard not to concede that the evidence for aliens, as the source for this phenomena, is at least as good (and probably much better) than is the evidence for any of the alternative theories. I'll end by pointing out that Apollo 14 astronaut, & 6th man to walk on the moon, Edgar Mitchell, was also a staunch believer in alien visitation, as are many other people whose backgrounds warrant their being taken seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mi...man-moon-believed-alien-intervention.html/amp

 

I'm fine with investigating every report of a sighting.

But, let's be serious about what "evidence" is.

When a sighting is debunked, it IS NOT EVIDENCE.

Thus, I know of absolutely NO evidence of a nature that is serious enough to investigate further.

And, the fact that our DoD holds its views in secrecy is something that is NOT going to change, as our ability to detect and record is a very serious security issue - not something that gets blurted to China, Russia and all others interested.