The Test and Failure of the AGW Paradigm

The ECS weakness in AGW theory is again exposed.
A Thought Experiment; Simplifying the Climate Riddle.
Guest Blogger
Is it possible to simplify the climate sensitivity debate? . . .

 

Once again ECS is the undoing of the AGW hypothesis.
More Research Affirms The Human Role In Global Warming Has Been Strongly Overestimated
By Kenneth Richard on 4. January 2024

AGW proponents use subjective forcing models and unmeasured estimates of past solar activity to claim humans drive warming. A scientist’s (Larminat, 2023) reassessment finds the Sun can drive climate, equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, 2xCO2 + feedbacks) is 1.14°C, and human forcing is overestimated.
Because there have been no direct measurements of solar activity until the late 1970s, proponents of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) rely on “a high degree of (informed) subjectivity,” a “degree of belief that exists among [IPCC] lead authors,” and uncertain solar models and proxy-based assumptions to conclude the Sun has not had more than a negligible role in climate change (Larminat, 2023). This way it can be claimed that human activities, especially CO2 emissions, are predominantly or even solely responsible for modern warming.

However, because these climate models and numerical approximations are derivations of meteorological models designed to predict the weather, they are “questionable for validating the anthropogenic principle.”

When alternative estimates of past solar activity assume the Sun to have played a more substantial role in warming, and when efforts to “disappear” the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age climate variations go unrealized, it can instead be shown that the anthropogenic impact on climate has been strongly overestimated (ECS = 1.14°C, not 2.5 to 4.0°C as claimed by the IPCC), and solar activity is the predominant driver of past and even modern warming.



Image Source: Larminat, 2023

 

Another blow against the AGW hypothesis.
New Study Finds No Evidence Of A CO2-Driven Warming Signal In 60 Years Of IR Flux Data
By Kenneth Richard on 11. January 2024

“The real atmosphere does not follow the GHG [greenhouse gas] GE [greenhouse effect] hypothesis of the IPCC.” – Miskolczi, 2023
CO2 increased from 310 ppm to 385 ppm (24%) during the 60 years from 1948 to 2008. Observations indicate this led to a negative radiative imbalance of -0.75 W/m². In other words, increasing CO2 delivered a net cooling effect – the opposite of what the IPCC has claimed should happen (Miskolczi, 2023).

Also, there is “no correlation with time and the strong signal of increasing atmospheric CO2 content in any time series,” which affirms “the atmospheric CO2 increase cannot be the reason for global warming.”

“The Arrhenius type greenhouse effect of the CO2 and other non-condensing GHGs is an incorrect hypothesis and the CO2 greenhouse effect based global warming hypothesis is also an artifact without any theoretical or empirical footing.”



Image Source: Miskolczi, 2023

 

Climate sensitivity remains the telltale Achilles heel of the AGW hypothesis. Sooner or later the growing body of evidence will affect the debate.
Nearly 160 Scientific Papers Detail The Minuscule Effect CO2 Has On Earth’s Temperature
By Kenneth Richard on 18. January 2024

We have updated our “Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity” scientific paper list with new papers added from 2022 and 2023 and some newly discovered papers from the past.
As of 2016 this list had only 50 papers on it (as indicated by the web address). In less than 8 years the list has grown to 159 (as of today).

Click on the link for the full list.

160 Papers Find Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity
A few of the sample 2022 and 2023 papers are shown here.

Akasofu and Tanaka, 2022 (100 ppm CO2 = 0.2°C global temperature change)
In spite of various uncertainties in the above analyses, what is crucial here is that the combined temperature rise by the near-linear trend (0.07°) and the MDO (0.4°C, namely the range [amplitude 0.2°Cx 2]) between 1975 and 2000 is comparable with the observed temperature rise (0.5°C) between the same period. Therefore, within the accuracy of observations and analysis, it may be stated that the temperature rise caused by the greenhouse gases is much smaller compared with the combined rise caused by the two natural changes between 1975 and 2000, about 0.1°C, instead of 0.5°C. The above conclusion can be tested with the records in Figure 7, which shows the recent satellite temperature data up to 2018 (UAH and MSU; Humlum,10 together with the CO2 data from Mauna Loa. It can be seen that the rate of the observed temperature rise (0.5°C/25 years) between 1975 and 2000 has not been continued (see the dash line), in spite of the fact that the amount of CO2 is still rising rapidly. The rise of the temperature between 2000 to 2018 is at most 0.1°C as inferred in the previous section. We can show also here that the effects of the greenhouse gases are only one fifth of the IPCC assumption on the basis of the observed CO2. Based on Figure 7, it can be estimated that the rate of temperature rise by the greenhouse gases between 1975 and 2000 is a little more than 0.2°C/ 100 ppm, instead of 1.0°C/ 100 ppm by assuming that the temperature rise is caused by the greenhouse gases. On the other hand, the TRAC model based on Had CRUT4 model uses the rate equivalent to 0.5°C/100 ppm. Therefore, the rate of temperature rise by the greenhouse gases is overestimated in the past. Figure 8 shows clearly this fact many simulation studies predict, on the average. The temperature increase by 0.4°C (many of them even much higher than 1.2 °C) between 2000 and 2020, instead of the observed 0.1°C or so.


Koutsoyiannis and Vournas, 2023
An enhancement of the greenhouse effect, due to increasing CO2 concentration, through the years would be seen as a gradual displacement of the points from left to right with the progression of time. However, the alignment of the points of the different data sets does not show a gradual displacement from left to right. This means that the effect of the direct CO2 emission at the surface is smaller than the side effects…causing the variability in Figure 2, and thus it is impossible to discern. … Quantification of the greenhouse effect is a routine procedure in the framework of hydrological calculations of evaporation. According to the standard practice, this is made considering the water vapour in the atmosphere, without any reference to the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), which, however, in the last century has escalated from 300 to about 420 ppm. As the formulae used for the greenhouse effect quantification were introduced 50-90 years ago, we examine whether these are still representative or not, based on eight sets of observations, distributed in time across a century. We conclude that the observed increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration has not altered, in a discernible manner, the greenhouse effect, which remains dominated by the quantity of water vapour in the atmosphere, and that the original formulae used in hydrological practice remain valid. Hence, there is no need for adaptation due to increased CO2 concentration.


Harde and Schnell, 2022 (2XCO2 = 0.7°C)
The derived forcing for CO2 is in quite good agreement with some theoretical studies in the literature, which to some degree is the result of calibrating the set-up to the spectral calculations, but independently it determines and also reproduces the whole progression as a function of the gas concentration. From this we deduce a basic equilibrium climate sensitivity (without feedbacks) of ECSB = 1.05°C. When additionally assuming a reduced wing absorption of the spectral lines due to a finite collision time of the molecules this further reduces the ECSB by 10% and, thus, is 20% smaller than recommended by CMIP6 with 1.22°C. … Detailed own investigations also show that in contrast to the assumptions of the IPCC water vapor only contributes to a marginal positive feedback and evaporation at the earth’s surface even leads to a significant further reduction of the climate sensitivity to only ECS = 0.7°C (Harde 2017 [15]). This is less than a quarter of the IPCC’s last specification with 3°C (see AR6 [1]) and even 5.4x lower than the mean value of CMIP6 with ECS = 3.78°C. The presented measurements and calculations clearly confirm the existence of an atmospheric GHE, but they also demonstrate the only small impact on global warming, which apparently is much more dominated by natural impacts like solar radiative forcing (see, e.g., Connolly et al. 2021 [16]; Harde 2022 [17]).


Siem and Olsen, 2023 (CO2 rising from 400 ppm to 1,000,000 ppm = -0.22°C cooling)
This study deals with interactions between thermal and radiative energy flow in experimental situations of varying complexity. Of special interest is how IR energy, re-emitted from CO2 gas, behaves in an earth/atmosphere simulated setup. Such an experiment was performed by Hermann Harde and Michael Schnell where they show that IR radiation emitted from CO2 can warm a small black-body metal plate. In a control experiment, we verified this result. However, in their experiment, the amount of IR radiation from the heating element was strongly attenuated. In a modified experiment, where IR emission from the heating source is present, no heating but a slight cooling [the average cooling was found to be -0.22°C±0.03°C] of a black object is found when air [0.04%] is replaced by CO2 [100%]. The modified experimental situation is also more like the earth/atmosphere situation.

 

Warmist/alarmists will ignore 1,000 papers showing how feeble CO2 warm forcing is because they are brainwashed and in a climate cult.

 

Just saw a clip of Gore over at Davos on TV going on about how if we implement all the green energy to take us to net zero the rise in temperature would "STOP IMMEDIATELY" as he pounded his fist into his hand for emphasis. So now these people are trying to convince us they have stopped the cycle of ice ages that have continued for millions of years. They think we are stupid.

 

Cant seem to find the above video on the internet yet, but ran across the same claim while looking for it.

Al Gore on what the world needs to do to stop climate change (youtube.com)
About 1:10 in the video
"The temperatures will stop going up right away"

What nonsense. We cant stop the cycle of Ice Ages, stop "climate change" by simply achieving net 0 on CO2. Natural climate change will keep on going. They think we are fools who will "Trust the science".... well, actually half of us are fool enough to do so. But I wont.

 

The AGW paradigm is fatally compromised by low (and falling) ECS.
New Journal of Climate Study Reduces Doubled CO2 Climate Sensitivity By 40%, To 0.72°C
By Kenneth Richard on 22. January 2024

Doubling the 2005 CO2 concentration (380 ppm) to 760 ppm only produces a globally-averaged 2.26 W/m² perturbation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). This doubled-CO2 forcing is close to 0 W/m² for large portions of the globe – including below 0 W/m² for Antarctica.
The IPCC claims doubling CO2 produces a 3.7 W/m² TOA forcing, which is a 1.2°C direct (no feedback) temperature differential using the IPCC’s 0.32°C per 1 W/m² formula (Seinfeld, 2008).



Image Source: Seinfeld, 2008
A new study (Chen et al., 2023) published in Journal of Climate assesses doubling CO2 from 380 to 760 ppm only yields 2.26 W/m², 1.71 W/m², and 0.55 W/m² forcing at the TOA, surface, and troposphere, respectively. These forcing values represent 0.72°C, 0.55°C, and 0.18°C temperature differentials, respectively (0.32°C/W/m²).

The global mean surface temperature forcing for doubled CO2, 0.55°C, would by itself appear to already cast doubt on claims that all or nearly all of the post-1850 >1°C warming could have been driven by anthropogenic CO2 forcing.

Image Source: Chen et al., 2023
The 2.26 W/m² globally averaged TOA forcing identified in this paper is 39% lower than the IPCC’s globally-averaged estimate (3.7 W/m²).

CO2 forcing is identified as highly variable and latitudinally dependent. At some locations, such as over Antarctica, doubled CO2 TOA forcing is negative, or below 0 W/m².

“The [doubled CO2] forcing in polar regions is strongly hemispheric asymmetric and is negative in the Antarctic.”

This means that, as CO2 increases, its impact actually cools Antarctica. This contradicts the IPCC claim that CO2 climate sensitivity is amplified at the poles. It also undermines the alarmist claim that Antarctic ice melt (and consequent catastrophic sea level rise) is driven by CO2.

Chen and colleagues also report that CO2 has no effect on atmospheric transmissivity due to (a) absorption saturation (CO2 can have no effect beyond a pre-industrial concentration), and because (b) water vapor and cloud forcing overlap and thus dominate absorption in CO2’s band.

“[Transmissivity] in the CO2 band center is unchanged by increased CO2 as the absorption is already saturated…”

“[T]he water vapor and CO2 overlapping at an absorbing band prevents absorption by additional CO2.”

Finally, water vapor serves to “dampen” the warming effect of increased CO2, which calls into question the IPCC’s water vapor “positive feedback” claims.

“The water vapor usually damps the [doubled CO2] forcing by reducing the energy additional CO2 can absorb.”

Because this is a mainstream study published in a prestigious climate-focused journal, perhaps it may not be as readily dismissed by gatekeepers of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) paradigm.

 

Evidence against the AGW paradigm continues to mount.
New Study Concludes ‘CO2 Can Have No Measurable Effect On Ocean Temperatures’
By Kenneth Richard on 25. January 2024

“There can be no climate equilibrium state that can be perturbed by an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2…” – Clark, 2023
The anthropogenic global warming paradigm has a magnitude problem – especially when it comes to the assumption that we humans can warm the ocean with our CO2 emissions.

New research suggests the sensitivity of the ocean latent heat flux to wind speed is about 15 W/m² per meter per second, and the solar daily flux varies 1 to 2 megajoules per square meter per day (1-2 MJ m⁻² day−1).

In contrast, the total accumulated downward longwave flux to the surface from a 250-year CO2 concentration increase of 140 ppm is just 2 W/m², which translates to just 0.17 MJ m⁻² day−1. Thus, the impact from CO2 “can have no measurable effect on ocean temperatures.”

Not only this, but the depth of influence for downwelling longwave from greenhouse gases is only about 1/10th of a millimeter (0.1 mm, or 100 microns) at most. Wong and Minnett (2018) insist the depth of radiative effects for CO2 is ten times smaller than this: 0.01 mm (one-one-hundredth of a mm). Therefore, the 0.17 MJ m⁻² day−1 of CO2 influence “is simply absorbed within the within the first 100 micron ocean layer and dissipated as an insignificant part of the total surface cooling flux.”

Simply put, then, “there can be no ‘climate sensitivity’ to CO2.”



Image Source: Clark, 2023

 

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is again shown to be the thread that unravels the AGW hypothesis.
Long Term Climate Sensitivity After All Feedback Has Acted
Guest Blogger
The problems encountered by scientists trying to put a number on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) for CO2x2 are almost insurmountable because of this complexity and estimates, consequently, vary greatly. . . .

 

The catalog of research results damaging to the AGW hypothesis continues to grow.
New Study Finds Global Cities Have Warmed Due To Rising Solar Surface Forcing Since 1986
By Kenneth Richard on 12. February 2024

The globe’s cities are warming primarily due to declining albedo, not CO2 radiative forcing.
According to a comprehensive new study published in Remote Sensing of Environment, CO2 fertilization has led to an enhanced greening trend in 72.6% of cities across the world since 1985, accelerating to 89.2% since 2001.

Per the authors, this greening trend is the key factor lowering the albedo reflecting incoming solar radiation in urban areas, amounting to a +2.76 W/m² increase in solar radiation reaching the surface from 1986-2020.

In contrast, the clear-sky-only trend from CO2 surface forcing only amounts to 0.2 W/m² per decade (22 ppm), or 0.02 W/m² per year, in the 21st century. (This trend only represents the forcing from CO2 in an imaginary world where no clouds exist.)

Thus, the positive radiative imbalance from the declining trend in albedo explains urban warming far better than an enhanced greenhouse effect from a clear-sky-only CO2 radiative forcing.



Image Source: Wu et al., 2024