The Weak Foundation of Calls for Climate Action

I think the main reason why climate alarmists have become so loud and strident lately is because they are aware (even if only subconsciously) how insubstantial is the actual data case for the extreme measures they advocate. A new paper explains this in some detail.


How much human-caused global warming should we expect?

By Andy May OMG! The world is going to end, and we caused it. This story, in one form or another, goes back to biblical times. According to Genesis (6:9 to 9:17) God decided that humans had sinned too much and must be punished, so he called up a great flood to destroy the world.…

". . . Connolly, Connolly, Carter and Soon have written a new paper (Connolly, et al. 2020) examining the IPCC predictions the UNFCCC used to construct the Paris Agreement. We will refer to their paper as “C3S20.” While the paper has just been published, it has been a work-in-progress for some time. Dr. Robert M. Carter passed away on January 19, 2016, but he did a considerable amount of work on an earlier version of the paper.
C3S20 asks, how much human-caused warming will occur if we do nothing, that is, continue “business-as-usual?” It’s unfortunate, but the IPCC, for all their work, do not adequately answer that question, their projections are all based on abstract “scenarios.”. . .
As we see by reading C3S20, the 2.0°C limit idea in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement is very flawed. The agreement does not define the preindustrial starting point, either as a temperature or a greenhouse concentration. It is not even defined in time. The effect of human-emitted greenhouse gases is not known accurately enough. This is clearly seen in Figure 2. The error in warming estimates for 2020, is larger than the total surface warming since 1850. Finally, there have been no observed problems with warming or greenhouse gas emissions. The net impacts of warming and higher greenhouse gas concentrations have been positive to date according to the economists that have studied the issue. Further, the impacts are likely to remain positive for some time to come.
The 2.0°C limit is arbitrary and subjective (Mahony 2015) and has no starting point. There is no way to accurately project the effects of the emissions the UNFCCC seeks to control, and two degrees of warming is just as likely to be beneficial as harmful. Further, we have no idea how natural forces will affect future climate, will they contribute to warming or work in the opposite way? There are studies that point both ways. See here and here. . . ."

 

Inconvenient Truth: Climate-related death risk down 99.6% over 100 years

Anthony Watts
New data shows the global climate-related death risk has dropped by over 99% since 1920. Despite the near constant caterwauling from climate alarmists that we are in a “climate emergency”,…

 

From :wattsupmybutt”

when you can critique the IPCC papers directly then get back to me

 

BTW a it might be worth you while to look up Dr Sonos credentials - he has a PhD is recieving money from the petroleum industry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Soon

 

Your prejudice is your prison. I see you fell for the long-debunked attempt to smear Dr. Soon. Long story short: The research support was to the Smithsonian, not Dr. Soon, and confidentiality rules about the funding were the Smithsonian's rules, not Dr. Soon's. Details available on request.

 

The earth..... it's climate is changing again or may be changing. Quick! Somebody summon Greta Thunberg from her ice cave in the Arctic. She'll know what to do.

 

Causation Of Climate Change, And The Scientific Method
January 02, 2021/ Francis Menton

• 
  Let’s have yet another go at trying to apply the scientific method to the subject of causation of climate change. This is just basic logic, and not that complicated. We can do it.
  
  
• As simple and basic as this is, you will shortly see that the agglomeration of all of the world’s leading “climate scientists” can’t figure it out. They are completely lost and befuddled. Check me and see if I’m wrong.
  
  
• The proposition we are addressing is the one for which you see a constant drumbeat of advocacy. It runs something like, “the climate is changing, and we are the cause.” OK, nobody denies that the climate is changing; but how about the “we are the cause” part? What is the proof?
  
  
• Let’s apply the scientific method.
  

READ MORE

 

Very Inconvenient Alps Glacier History…Top Glaciologists: Alps Were Ice-Free 6000 Years Ago
By P Gosselin on 6. January 2021

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Alps ice-free…6000 years ago, when CO2 was much lower than today’s levels.
Dr. Sebastian Lüning earlier today released his latest Klimaschau report, No. 6. In the first part he looks at glaciers in the Alps over the course of much the Holocene.


It turns out that Most of the Alps were ice-free 6000 years ago, glaciologists have discovered.

In his video, the German geologist presents a new paper authored by glaciologists Bohleber et al, 2020 of the Austrian Academy of Science. The Austrian-Swiss team discovered from ice cores that the 3500-meter high Weißseespitze summit was ice free 5900 years ago. . . .

 

I've already critiqued the IPCC directly (and their random numbers) numerous times on this forum...

 

Science is not credentials. Credentials do not have any effect on the laws of thermodynamics and the stefan boltzmann law, all of which warmizombies are outright denying...

 

Wikipedia is fully committed to CAGW dogma, the article in question is grossly slanted and inaccurate, and its cited sources are often outright propaganda pieces.

 

Is There a Climate Emergency (Dr. Ross McKitrick)

 

Alarmists have a mystery.
The Ocean Warming Enigma
Charles Rotter
So the real question is what has caused sea temperatures to steadily rise since 1900? And if you think it is greenhouse gases, then you need to explain how these…

 

That Soon link was a crude insulting entry of a scientist, no effort in trying to be neutral was evident.

It reasons like that is why I never supported it with $$$ and never will.

 

Under the ice: . . .

Proof Of Warmer Earlier Climate! Swiss Geologist Studies 10,800-Year Old Tree Trunk Under Alps Glacier
By P Gosselin on 17. January 2021

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Previously hidden under a Swiss glacier, a 10,800-year old tree trunk was discovered and tells us the Alps were much warmer in the early Holocene than today.

Online SRF Swiss Broadccasting recently reported on a fascinating find in the Swiss Alps: a more than 10,000 year old tree trunk that had been until recently buried under the Morteratsch Glacier. . . .

 

A look inside the climate hype machine:

Alan Rusbridger: the Graun’s Net Zero Climate Journalism
Posted on 19 Jan 21 by GEOFF CHAMBERS • 6 Comments


Of all the mainstream media the Guardian is probably the most fervent in its espousal of the cause of catastrophic climate change, (or “Global Heating” as its journalists are obliged to call it) and, since its conversion into an international on-line medium covering the US and Australia, possibly the most influential. And the person who … Continue rea

 

Most all of their articles are that way. That is why I summarily dismiss Wikipedia on sight. I do not accept Wikipedia as a source.

 

Malpractice in studying the Great Barrier Reef:

Measuring Old Corals & Coral Reefs (Part 2)

January 20, 2021 By jennifer 1 Comment


Late last year, I went on an expedition in search of a type of very old coral known as massive Porites. Stuart, Shaun and I dived five very different coral reefs between Cairns and Townsville. The first was an inshore fringing coral reef to the … [Read more...]

 

Endangered Cloud Forests, Clouds and Climate Change
Guest Blogger
Demagogues trumpet ecosystems are collapsing and allude to scientific assessments. For example, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) listed the Gnarled Mossy Cloud Forest as “critically endangered”.…

 

Over 400 Scientific Papers Published In 2020 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm
By Kenneth Richard on 29. January 2021

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In 2020, more than 400 scientific papers were published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media sources.
Over 400 scientific papers published in 2020 affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled.

More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question the climate alarm popularized in today’s headlines. . . . .

 

Climate “emergency” claims falsified by real world data

• Date: 04/02/21
• Global Warming Policy Foundation

London, 4 February: The familiar narrative of a climate “emergency” is not supported by a vast body of observational data, according to a new paper published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.





Contrary to popular belief there is little evidence of harmful trends from the impact of global warming. According to the paper’s author, Dr Indur Goklany,

“Almost everywhere you look, climate change is having only small, and often benign, impacts. The impact of extreme weather events ― hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts ― are, if anything, declining. Economic damages have declined as a fraction of global GDP. Death rates from such events have declined by 99% since the 1920s. Climate-related disease has collapsed. And more people die from cold than warm temperatures”

And even sea-level rise – predicted to be the most damaging impact of global warming – seems to be much less of a problem than thought. According to Dr Goklany, reviews of historic maps and satellite imagery have shown that the places predicted to disappear are in fact still with us.

“A recent study showed that the Earth has actually gained more land in coastal areas in the last 30 years than it has lost through sea-level rise. We now know for sure that coral atolls aren’t disappearing and even Bangladesh is gaining more land through siltation than it is losing through rising seas.”

Empirical data also shows that food production per capita has increased by 30% since 1961 despite a more-than-doubling of the global population. Hunger and malnutrition have declined, area burnt by wild fires has declined, and since 1950 poverty has declined, people are wealthier and global life expectancy has increased from 46 years to 73 years.

Dr Goklany’s paper Impacts of Climate Change: Perception and Reality is published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation and can be downloaded here (pdf).

About the author

Indur M. Goklany is an independent scholar and author. He was a member of the US delegation that established the IPCC and helped develop its First Assessment Report. He subsequently served as a US delegate to the IPCC, and as an IPCC reviewer.

 

Tree Remnants Show Greta’s Thunberg’s Northern Sweden Was 3°C Warmer 9300 Years Ago…Trees There’s Tundra
By P Gosselin on 12. February 2021

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9300-year old vegetation remnants found under receding glaciers in Northern Sweden show that the trees once grew where tundra exists today, meaning it was warmer.

Hat-tip: Kenneth Richard

A new Swedish publication titled New Presence Of Beaver (Castor fiber L) in the Scandes sustains warmer-than-present conditions and a patchily treed and rich mountainscape finds that trees once grew up to 700 meters above today’s current treeline in Northern Sweden (Lapland, locations 1 and 2).



Figure 1. Location of study areas in northern Sweden (Lapland). 1. Kårsaglaciären. 2. Tärna. Megafossils show much warmer climates 9000 years ago.

Over the past 120 years the climate has warmed, and so there’s been glacier and ice patch shrinkage. This has unveiled earlier vegetation and life. . . .

 

Implausible insurance forecasts:


Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector
Posted on February 15, 2021 by curryja | 30 comments
by Judith Curry

The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes. Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested a critique of this report.

Continue reading →

 

Insurance companies contriving excuses to raise rates? Tell me it ain't so!

 

Fanning the flames of climate alarmism to make money:

Forbes Blames Global Warming for Record Cold – Science Disagrees
EXTREME COLD FEBRUARY 17, 2021