...it looks like today is going to be an interesting day. Three major parties and perhaps three smaller parties are on the ballot for today's parliamentary elections, and likely very many little splitter parties that will go absolutely nowhere. See: below. The wiki for this is actually pretty darned good: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2015 Polling is showing that the "Liberals", which were tied with the Conservatives for a long stretch of time, have pulled into a statistically significant lead, one that is outside of the standard MoE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadeian_federal_election,_2015 To that list also goes the latest IPSOS/Reuters poll, which just came in: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7031 (perhaps by the time people wake up today and read this thread, the IPSOS/Reuters will have been added to the wiki link.... perhaps not....) So, the last polls in reverse chronological order back to the release date of 10/15, show the following margins for the Liberals: +8, +8.6, +10, +3,9, +1.7, +7, +6.8, +0.4, +6.3, +8, +4, +5, +1.2, +5.9 The average of all those polls listed is: Liberals +5.5 The average of just the 10 most recent is: Liberals +6.1 I didn't take time to pull out the repeaters, but likely, it won't change the average all that much. In fact, the Liberals have led in the last 22 polls in a row. One of those pollsters, Angus Reid, a Canadian polling firm (the one with a +4 margin above, which I bolded), also polled the US 2012 presidential election during the Fall campaign and put out some pretty accurate results. I was impressed with this as Angus Reid had no dog in the race, was simply interested in putting out accurate data.** The current polling is also very, very consistent. In every single one of those 22 polls: The Liberals are in the lead. The Conservatives are in 2nd place. The New Democratic Party is in 3rd place. Block Quebec and the Greens dance around each other for 4th and 5th place. There is officially a 6th party called "Strength in Democracy", but apparently, it is barely on the radar screen. In 2011, there were 14 other mini-splitter parties on the ballots. They went nowhere, but you can see that some of the party names are hilarious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Canada#Results The number of seats in the Canadian House of Commons has been increased from 308 to 338, so the magic number to rule should be 170. I am not aware of a percent hurdle for a small party to get seats in the House of Commons. The current population of Canada was estimated at 35.3 million in 2014. 35,300,00 / 338 = 104,438 consituents per seat in the House of Commons. The Canadian Senate has 105 seats, which are appointed and not directly decided by the popular vote. All of Canada's 10 provinces plus the Yukon territory use a plurality voting system (no absolute majority of 50.01% is required). The Northwest Territories and Novanut use a concensus governing model for elections. One of the issues here is that of titles. They call themselves the Liberals, but many in Canada say that this party is actually the more Centrist party, whereas the New Democratic Party (NDP) was created out of the most hardcore of the Liberals who were dissatisfied with the direction of Liberalism in their country. I don't live there, so I don't know for sure. Perhaps there are some Canadian members of PF who can help with this issue. I created this thread because it is very interesting and we should not forget: two great nations that have lived peacefully as neighbors for more than 200 years now have both held, (mostly) uninterrupted, free and fair elections the entire time. That is a point that I think we should remember. It's a tribute to flourishing Democracy in both lands. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- **Angus Reid, 2012 election: National Angus Reid end-poll: Obama 51 / Romney 48, margin = Obama +3, so the poll was 1 point off to the Right, but Angus Reid was the only end pollster to nail the topline. Obama won with exactly 51.01%. Angus Reid also put out end-polling results for Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio. It absolutely nailed the margin in WI and OH, was off slightly to the right in Florida and Pennsylvania and was off 4 points to the Right in Michigan. But it predicted the correct winner in 4 of 5 battleground states. It called a tie in FL, which is automatically a miscall. You can see the results here. So, I look forward to seeing what happens in Canada today. And I wish the Candians good weather, a huge turnout and a fine election. In honor of the day and our Canadian friends: [video=youtube;zwDvF0NtgdU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwDvF0NtgdU[/video]
This graphic from the WIKI link at the top of the OP shows the progression of polling for today's election, from the beginning of August until now: You can see the sharp upward curve for the Liberals starting on October 5th and which held for 13 days straight.
The international business times is not so excited about today's election and thinks that the Conservatives could still end up ruling, when all is said and done. http://www.ibtimes.com/uncertainty-may-reign-after-canadas-oct-19-election-2145736 If nothing else, the link is an interesting read. Seems to take long to load, inexplicably.....
Fifty years ago it would be fairly accurate to state that Catholics tended to vote Liberal and Protestants tended to vote Conservative, (entitled Progressive Conservative at that time). Lately, people who attend church on a regular basis tend to vote Conservative and people who are disillusioned with organized religion would be more likely to vote Liberal or NDP. I personally have gotten really into an alternative theory on addressing climate change other than a carbon tax and decided to join Canada's Liberal Party because there seems to be more willingness there to at least discuss this topic. P. M. Stephen Harper and Mr. Justin Trudeau are I believe in a perfect position to assist the nations of Israel and Jordan to embark on a plan that will transform the economy and political environment of the Middle East. https://www.facebook.com/notes/dann...eans-from-rising-ocean-levels/642434499224784 The Sahara Forest Project and saving New Orleans from rising ocean levels.
http://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e With 2.3% of all registered voters votes counted, at the current time, the Liberals have almost 61% of the vote. However, there is no way to know exactly from where those votes are coming, so the number, although it is a high percentage and a large margin, doesn't really mean anything yet. But the Liberals are leading in all 33 electoral districts that are turning in results.
No matter who wins, they are still going to be stuck with a bunch of Canadians as their leaders. They should go ahead and start applying for statehood in the US. well except Quebec because they are too french for us. Honestly from an American perspective, I cannot sense a difference in Canada or its politics whether a liberal or a conservative group is in charge. That is rather unique in the modern world I think.
The Liberals have swept all 11 of Nova Scotia's seats, with enormous margins, winning percentages starting at about 70%. In 2011, the Liberals won only 4 of eleven seats from Nova Scotia, the Conservatives won 4 and the NPD won 3. BTW, seats in Canada are called "ridings". In ultra conservative Tobique, which is usually a Conservative +15 to +20 riding, the Liberals are currently leading by 8 points. If this trend continues, then this will be a far bigger night for the Liberals in Canada than the polling even remotely suggested.
In Canada, the Liberals have the color RED, the Conservatives have the color BLUE and the NPD has the color ORANGE. Right now, it is looking like a RED Tsunami in Atlantic Canada. Of the 33 ridings that are reporting, 29 have now been called for the Liberals and they are leading in the other 4. Correction: it changed while I was typing. The Liberals have now outright won 30 ridings and are leading in the other 3. 305 ridings have yet to start reporting in and since Canada spans as many time-zones as the USA, this will take a while... One riding in Quebec just started to report in. The Liberals are leading there as well, but that is a thin lead, it could change.
Tobique-Mactaquac, a conservative stronghold, has fallen to the Liberals. It was called for TJ Harvey and the margin is currently +8.3. Tobique often went for the Conservatives by +20 or more in the past.
Only one riding is calling in from Quebec right now: GASPÉSIE-LES ÎLES-DE-LA-MADELEINE The Liberal candidate is more than 10 points ahead of the NPD incumbent candidate. The Quebec Party candidate is at 22.2% The Conservatives are getting 6% in this riding. No one saw this one coming. This riding had been classified as safe NPD.
The polls have now closed everywhere else in Canada except for British Columbia and the Yukon. But many of those very northernmost ridings will take hours to get their results in. The question is no longer whether the Liberals are going to win this election. They are going to win it, for sure. It's now a question of how big the win is going to be. To put it in perspective, a Liberal (canadian) winning Tobique-Mactaquac is like a Democrat winning South Dakota in the USA.
With 33% of all polling places reporting in and about 4% of the registered voters' votes recorded, the Liberals are still leading with 58.6% to the Conservatives 19.3%, currently, a +39.3% margin. This is going to shrink quite a bit, I think, but still, the Liberals are doing far better than the polling was showing. The Libs have won 30 seats, are leading in 22. The Conservatives are leading in 14 seats and the NPD is leading in 4, but those seats have not been called yet. There are 268 ridings yet to start reporting in.
And CBC and CTV have already projected that the Liberals have won, but are not yet projecting a majority government. They are also projecting that Trudeau (LIB) will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.
The Liberals are now leading in 167 ridings, and strongly, too. I have yet to find a riding where a Liberal who is ahead is barely ahead. The Conservatives are now leading in 96 ridings, but only 7 have been officially called for them, and I can find ridings all over the place where the Conservatives are ahead, but by slim margins. NDP is leading in 25 ridings. Quebec is leading in 7. There are only 47 ridings yet to start putting out results. Even if the Conservative were to win all 47 of them, they would come up far short of 170. On the other hand, the Liberals only need three more for an absolute majority in the House of Commons.
The liberals are now leading in 174 ridings, with 38 more to report in. It is going to be Liberal-majority government in Canada without the need for a coalition. Currently, in the popular vote, it's Liberals 48.9% to Conservatives 27.2%, a +21.7% lead (+6 was the average of the last 10 polls, as I indicated in the OP).
The Liberals are leading now in 181 ridings, 11 over absolute majority. The Tories are stuck at 96, I suspect they will eventually break 100. The is the worst showing for Conservatives in Canada in quite a while. Both major Canadian news services are projecting a Liberal majority government. I'm off to bed, will do a post-mortem sometime tomorrow. Big night for the Liberal Party in Canada tonight. Really big night. Possibly historic. Wait and see.
I'm Canadian........ I'm a member of Canada's Liberal Party......… and I am astonished!!!!!! Perhaps what amazes me the most is the collapse of the NDP vote!
You know something.......... you are onto something important with this idea. P. M. Stephen Harper for all his flaws...... was amazingly "Liberal." For example he did a great job of convincing "conservatives" to NOT attempt to stop the LGBT community from getting married. P. M. Harper was something of a Christian Intellectual and understood a principle elaborated on by a near death experiencer years before I did?! http://www.politicalforum.com/gay-l...rs-understand-nde-comments-gay-community.html Sincere apologies for taking 5 years to understand NDE comments on Gay Community! I personally am ashamed of myself for being a Christian who could not understand this message for about five years!!!!! http://www.near-death.com/andreason.html#a11
