Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I use Starbucks as my unbiased source of China's progress.

And, best of all, she said, as the number of new infections began to decline, Starbucks China was able to start re-opening doors again. On March 5, the company announced 90 percent of the stores are open again, operating under modified hours and conditions.

Last week, the Shanghai Reserve Roastery re-opened after being closed for more than a month.

“The night before it opened, I felt like a kid who was about to go on a picnic with classmates the next day. I went there and I was so happy to see our partners. I wanted to give them a hug but I couldn’t since it was contactless,” Wong said with a laugh.

Stores in China are still following safety protocols, but the ability to have human connection over a cup of coffee in a Starbucks is back.

https://stories.starbucks.com/stori...te-covid-19-in-china-and-the-lessons-learned/

 

So did Trump

 

I do not accept your interpretation.

 

A note about the United States as the new hotspot of the world. Anyone who questioned that argument was not paying attention to the data, but a common refrain was that we should compare the US to the EU instead of US versus any particular European country because we should normalize the data by the population. A fair point.

I have been doing that for the last 8 days. Currently, the EU has a cases per millions of population at 947.506. The US sits at 847.069. But here's the graph over those 8 days (the funky line for the EU is created because I didn't bother to track the data for the smaller EU countries until the last 8 days).



You can see that the US is still arching upwards toward the linear line from the EU. To put a finer point on it, I tracked the rolling 7 day average and 3 day averages and then projected how long it would take the US to catch up to the EU. If you used the 7 day average, as of yesterday (4/2), it will take the US 11 days to catch the EU. If you used the 3 day average, as of yesterday, it will take 6 days.

When you add in the data from today (4/3), those projections drop to 5 days and 3 days, respectively.

 

We are probably in for another artificial rise in cases as they try to recover from the inability to process tests fast enough. This has got to be driving the data freaks nuts, but maybe they can track when they came in from the field.

 

Orange Man Bad. ^^^^

 

What do you interpret that Dr.Ricciardi has said and done ??

 

That is not what they are saying.

 

That ~88% of the people in Italy that died with the virus had another pre-existing condition and that it is possible some of those individuals might have died regardless of whether they had the virus.

 

They died with the virus and not from the virus. That’s what he said.

 

Everyone dies at some point, since we universally have one 'pre-existing condition": we are all mortals!

The arguments about Italy reclassifying are misleading and hope no one here who just reads the comments but doesn't actually look into these issues ends up being misled as a result.

First, Italy is doing not such thing. Some science adviser to the Italian prime minister is quoted in some articles suggesting the points other people (besides AFM) have mentioned here.

Second, the argument, which isn't about good 'data collection' and reporting (who is against that?), can mislead people, is unhelpful in every sense, except to white wash other arguments made previously to downplay the threat of the virus. Instead of changing tune, some like to 'double down' on previously misguided comments,

Third, the most prominent 'pre-existing conditions' involved include many which wouldn't have been immediately life threatening and, besides, aren't one condition or another, but a list of almost a dozen or so different, unrelated, conditions. Once someone reaches a certain age, say 60, the chance that they will have had some 'medical history' (diabetes, high blood pressure, previous bout with some disease etc) increases substantially (and such "medical history" will also exist for many people even before they are 60, being more present as you grow in age). A condition like not just even diabetes, but also adding to it 'pre-diabetes' (with some here adding even 'pre-diabetes' to the list to create these associations and take away from the sting of accepting the large numbers being killed by the virus) is simply "too common" among middle aged and older people. Add to these the list of other 'preconditions' being mentioned (e.g., high blood pressure, obesity, and all the others), and I wonder what percentage of mature adults have never had any such 'preconditions' in their medical files?

Finally, this virus can and does kill a lot of otherwise healthy adults and even younger people with no pre-existing conditions. While, on a comparative, statistical scale, they will be a small percentage of those who have died from the virus, not a day has passed the past couple of months, without finding many such people dead (and many more stricken very hard). Most of the 43+ physicians in Iran who have died while helping battle this virus were not planning to retire from work, much less retire from life! The same with most of the similar number of physicians in Italy and the many more other health care workers such as nurses. In fact, one of the first cases to bring home this reality about the Coronavirus was the death of a young, otherwise healthy, 25 year old nurse in Iran due to Covid-19. (On this point, let me stress: the level of the virus you are exposed to is critical to your prognosis based on everything I have been able to gather from how this virus worked and works. The less exposed you are, the more likely you will be able to go through a bout with the virus without major complications. The more exposed you are, the more likely you will end up with major complications).

 

oops. Poor connection causing duplicate post. Deleted for that reason.

 

Yes, this is clearly some sort of culling-the-herd event that won't be stopped due to a multitude of reasons, very few of which are political in nature. That doesn't make it any less horrifying. For me, it's not even the number of dead, which is bad enough.

It's the over burden on the resources - people forget that doctors and nurses are not an infinite supply. There is only so much morgue space; only so much funeral home space; only so many hearses, only so many people available to attend a memorial where we have to stand 6 feet apart, only so many clergy to perform death services... only so many tears to cry.

People simply are not thinking this through. It's not the number, per se, it's the frequency and the never-ending-of it that will be the most taxing.

 

Nice work, thanks for sharing. Part of this may be that the US is just aggressively testing a lot more than the bulk of individual European nations. Would you be willing to take a stab at trying to do this for death totals per capita as well?

Now that worldometers has individual pages for a lot of the nations, it is easy to pick up data for ones not on my sheet. On each individual nation's page you can just view source and take the numbers they're using for the graphs right out of the arrays. If you are not familiar with how to do this, I can elaborate in a direct convo.

 

The data calls attention to those who have these serious preconditions that they are at far more risk of a tragic outcome if infected by COVID 19 than a healthy person.

 

Last month, in a discussion with LSG (who is a Trump supporter, but one who I appreciate for being less politicized and rather focused on science and facts on this issue), I mentioned my estimate of 20,000 dying from the Coronavirus in the US by the end of April. I based that mostly on the experience from Iran (though I didn't mention that part explicitly), which is the one I am most familiar with, adjusting the figure based on the US having 4 times Iran's population and what I expected the death toll for Iran to be by the end of April. At that time (when the US still had very few deaths, mostly concentrated in some nursing home etc), many of the same folks you like to quote and hang around with, would have ridiculed your estimate of 50,000 dying in a couple months from the virus and would have considered it sensational. Even my estimate of 20,000 was seen as unlikely.

While 50,000 dead people in the US because of Covid-19 is better than the estimates from the US government itself, where 100-200,000 is being presented as 'conservative' estimates on the assumption of people following social distancing guidelines), I find this estimate you have recently been mentioning to be a huge number regardless. Add to that your penchant to play with the stats and pretend that someone with say diabetes dying from Covid-19 has died from diabetes, and that estimate can even mean in actual fact something as bad as the much larger estimates we have seen.

Anyway, my own view (and I am not insisting on this and realize the statistical models tell a much worse story), is that the actual deaths in the US from Covid-19 (measured the way they are being measured and not what you have sometimes suggested) will actually be closer to 50,000 than the higher numbers we have seen. That doesn't mean people should 'go back to work' and stop 'social distancing' and such. It means the combination of social distancing measures and herd immunity, will in my humble opinion, will probably prevent the virus taking the greater toll that I fully admit it might. But if I am proven wrong, and many more die, I am not going to go on a rampage in different threads and pretend that the facts are not what they turn out to be. None of us, not even the best experts, know the real answer to how many will actually die. What we do know is that this virus is a serious problem that needs serious attention and a lot of effort by everyone (from individuals, to state governments, to national governments, to all nations across the globe) to begin containing.

 

So the Mediterranean diet is not that good after all? (Joking..)

But the chronic poor economic conditions in Italy might be a factor.

Note: whereas Trump (who said recently: "we are one people, we can issue our own currency, we will do what it takes" ie issue unlimited amounts of money)* is pleased to rescue the economy in the US, the Italians are at the mercy of the tight-arses in Brussels. (Moral of the story, don't give up your nation's currency issuing capacity).

https://www.rollingstone.com/politi...coronavirus-fed-bank-bailout-disaster-976086/

*The Fed “balance sheet” as of Friday was already at $5.3 trillion, nearly $800 billion higher than its previous peak in May 2016. Wall Street analysts are predicting this number will eventually reach $10 trillion, and why not? Fed chief Jerome Powell signaled that assistance would be unlimited when he said the central bank “would not run out of ammunition.”

 

You do make a valid point on the economic issue, but fail to address the real difference.

As long as the US dollar is the currency for international trade, the US has a huge cushion to throw unearned money around to bail itself out of things like the consequences of this pandemic without causing a serious devaluation of its currency. Others don't have that luxury and it isn't because they are tied to "Brussels". Being tied to Brussels might affect their ability to print what would become increasingly worthless currency to fight off the pandemic, but the real issue (and advantage for the US) lies elsewhere.

 

The Italians are “playing with the stats”.

 

Good evening. Last night I mentioned I would compare the individual hotspot states, but I will do that in a separate post to keep this one from being too bloated. Here's what I'm looking at tonight:



Hopefully this thing isn't too impossible to read. There are so many nations now to cover - but I see Brazil and Portugal as being the next nations to get hit bad. I've also added Sweden due to a request, which is currently not a hotspot, but is on the rise as of late.

You can see the US numbers per day have dwarfed anything from any other nation before. Despite the staggering # of cases, the US has still somehow managed to avoid going outside the 13-15% new case range, currently creeping down. Perhaps we have the current backlog to thank for this? Will there just be another logjam after this one is finally worked through? Similarly, France continues to osculate like crazy. From 2K yesterday to 5K today. My prediction: 8K tomorrow, followed by 4K and 2K. They must have a surfer running tests because cases come and go like waves.

On a personal note, I have coworker who works from home remotely in New York. He has started exhibiting the symptoms of COVID-19 right now. He is not bad off enough to be hospitalized, so he has not been tested. How many more Americans are out there exactly like that? I feel we have already seen a number of people post about similar situations in this thread. It goes back to my posting last night - limited resources are limiting testing. Whatever the final number of cases is, it is an understatement - both in the US and pretty much everywhere else.

Back to the numbers - a number of hotspot nations have managed to get down to the single digit %'s. Spain almost a full week into single digit %'s, Italy dropping down to the 4% range, all good signs that measures being taken in those countries are showing some effect and that their curves should eventually flatten.

New addition Sweden on the end though, it is currently going in the opposite direction. Both in terms of real #'s that that are rising, and % new cases which have gone from a couple days in single digits (more if you go back further), to consistently in the 10%+.



Under deaths, we can see where no nation has maintained low mortality for long. The US is now past 2% and over half way to 3%. Germany is past 1% mortality and just under half way to 2%. Italy is past 12% and rising, France with their latest massive dumps of additional deaths attributed to coronavirus is now past 10%, soon to be joined by Spain, the UK, and Netherlands in the 10% club. Sweden on the end there has progressively worsened in mortality as well, almost up to 6% now.

The only nation bucking the trend right now is Iran, which has mostly a flat number of daily deaths and new cases. The fact that new deaths are not accelerating in Iran is indeed about the only positive here.

As for growth in deaths, the US is consistently in double digits, even approaching 30% a couple of times, rarely below 20%. The UK likewise seeing a huge spike in deaths lately, as are Turkey, Brazil, and Sweden. And then there's France...

Italy and Iran mercifully falling in new death %, with Italy pulling back from their highs (thank god) are about the only real positives here. Spain as well is at least dropping on average the new death %, although still on average trending higher.



So just to recap this one - I've put together a comparison of the individual nations on when they went into lockdowns. These are to the best of my knowledge when nations went into lockdown in some form - Germany with their curfew, Belgium with the "lockdown light".

I have highlighted where I believe cases have stopped going up day over day. You can see where Italy went a bit flat at this point and eventually back down. Spain has thus far not really proceeded beyond that range, although I wouldn't say they've peaked until after they are out of the 7K range. Belgium might have peaked on day 11-12 as well, they are trending back up. I would prefer to wait until they are out of the 1K's to actually make that statement.

Germany, New York, and UK are approaching the same time frame, so hopefully we see their new cases per day stop going up at about that time. France's data is frustrating to work with. You can see how literally no other nation has those waves of cases. I may have to replace that column with the averages of new cases - something completely unnecessary for any of these others.

Finally, a word on where deaths peaked. For China - this occurred Day 22-23, and Italy on 18-19. Currently Spain is on Day 20. So if Spain does not have a 2 day average above Apr 1-2 (923, 961), then they will have mercifully peaked without treading into the 1K territory. But too early to make assumptions. While I am not posting the screenshot of that one for now, you can find it on my sheet here.

 

Do you really believe any numbers coming out of Iran and China ???

 

And now it is so late it has become morning my time. So good morning.

Tonight I threw together some comparisons of the hotspot US states - specifically to compare deaths and tests. Here are the deaths comparison:



New York of course has gone off like a rocket as of late. They are showing very worryingly high numbers. As I mentioned in a previous post, if you calculate this out, the average daily death total for New York is ~415 if memory serves (it was definitely in the 400's). So anything 500+ is over the daily average for all other reasons combined. So, things have gotten quite bad there.

New Jersey is spiking very alarmingly. Washington and California continue to not increase at quite the same pace, but look at their most recent numbers - especially California's most recent two. They may have a flatter curve than other states right now, but they both appear to be getting worse at the moment.

And now what is probably a bit more interesting are the test comparisons:




New York far and away the best tester in the nation. One small thing to be grateful in a state with an otherwise dismal immediate outlook.

Something very strikingly obvious from these results are just how many days of 100% Michigan keeps having in a row. They appear to be dumping information about how many total tests they've done (that were negative) at intervals, and just reporting new positive cases daily. But the overall number of tests done are just not adequate. They have the 3rd most deaths in the nation, and have separated significantly from LA since Mar 30. That is just not good enough. Michigan in my opinion is failing the most in terms of testing.

Also in the bad column - Louisiana. Consistently 50% positive results as of late. Possibly due to rationing of tests, I don't really know. At least they are doing more tests than Michigan, but that is a very troubling % of the population qualifying for being tested actually being positive.

On the other side of the coin, Washington appears to be doing fairly well with testing. The only state here with less than 10% total positives, and 2nd most total tests. That is good vigilance on their part, and will hopefully result in a much less severe outbreak than what is befalling NY, NJ, MI, and LA.

 

You don't know anything about Iran, except the propaganda you are exposed to. I am not going to derail this thread by getting too much into this subject and, if it helps you sleep better, ignore anything said about Iran.

For those who might want to actually know the facts, ask me and I will try to present the picture that is a lot more accurate than what you have been exposed to. In the meantime, I should mention that overall fatalities (from all causes of death) were actually down in March 2020 compared to March 2019, mainly because of a huge drop in traffic accidents. The latter a leading cause of death in Iran, but one which was lower in light of the much lower (but still not low enough) Persian New Year travel Iran had in March.

Iran has a very contested political system, even if not all issues are up to being contested within its official political sphere. Kind of like the US, the Coronavirus issue did become very politicized in Iran as well. When the pandemic was first affecting Iran a lot more than elsewhere outside of China (Italy soon caught up with Iran), you had a lot of propaganda to use the pandemic to further destablize Iran. And, in response, you had the government in Iran its leadership try to do the opposite and downplay the virus. Especially since we had some political events, including parliamentary elections, where a high turnout was being encouraged. But that was a couple of months ago. Since then, the only fault I can find in Iran's reports and reaction is the initial failure of the Rouhani administration to prohibit travel (they did eventually do just that) at the start of the Persian New Year. Otherwise, while we also have a large number of people who (like their counterparts in the US), like to pretend the virus is "no big deal" and a "hoax", most people have been following the guidelines. And, as a result, most people like me still (fortunately) do not know anyone personally who has died from the virus. In fact, around 50% of Iran's hospital beds are empty and not being used, while Iran has been offering (and providing) Coronavirus assistance in terms of testing kits, face masks, etc. to some of its neighbors and friends.

Ultimately, we live in a world where you actually can see things for yourself. Go to Google Earth-Iran and check out the scenes around different areas of the country. Here. Search around and zoom any place you want. You won't find much of any police or military presence, not huge number of people panicking and doing the things they would be doing if things were that bad, and a country that has actually done better than some of its detractors. You can also try and visit any supermarket chain or other stores in Iran which sell their products online. You won't find any shortages, unlike some other places. They won't deliver to you in the US, because you are outside their 'delivery zone', but here is one of the more popular hypermarkets in Iran . They have a lot of items on sale, some of them things you might need if you could purchase goods from Iran
https://www.hyperstariran.com/en

 

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=44618

EMU Member States should ignore Brussels and do whatever it takes

Note: if $10 trillion (50% of GDP) in "money printing" doesn't devalue the US dollar, then other countries can do the same thing if on a smaller scale......and in fact Australia has issued $300 billion (ie, similar order of magnitude relative to the US) to rescue its economy over the next 6 months, with inflation not getting a mention from any commentators (though "how are we going to pay for it" is being raised by the MSM).

I have created a discussion of MMT at this page:

http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/mmt-overcoming-the-political-divide.569365/







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Employment in the future is going to be different to what it is now.

There will be significantly better benefits and safety nets IMO. The current UI farce in FL is going to be the poster child for these changes.