Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Only superficially. Please see posting #13340.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03, 2021-04,
ONE YEAR LOOKBACK TO 2020-04-013

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Tuesday, 2021-04-013
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 41 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and four of the 41 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis:

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍******** 138,007,066 ********֍֍֍Ώ
+757,623 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 713,090 = 495.2 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE IN +CASES IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PEAK FROM THE FALL/WINTER WAVE
+13,046 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 12,265 = 8.5 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising
INDIA: +100,000 DAILY CASES FOR THE 9th TIME IN 10 DAYS / SET A NEW INTERNAL +CASE RECORD
USA: FOR THE 1st TIME SINCE 2021-23-02, A STATE (MI) RECORDED MORE THAN +10,000 DAILY CASES
FRANCE IS NOW -520 UNDER 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS, WILL BE 8th NATION TO REACH THIS MARK
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZIL'S C-19 SUM OF TOTAL TESTS PERFORMED HAS NOT BUDGED IN 111 DAYS

​

The first screenshot of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 41 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for the month in question (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍** 32,070,784 **֍֍֍
THE USA EXCEEDED 32 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
FOR THE 1st TIME SINCE 2021-23-02 (TX), A STATE (MI) RECORDED MORE THAN +10,000 DAILY CASES
+80,641 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 72,907 = 50.6 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+881 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 988 = 0.7 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE IN US DEATHS FELL BELOW +1,000 ON THIS DAY
​

​

INDIA:
֍*** 13,871,321 ***֍
AT +185,248 CASES, INDIA SET A NEW INTERNAL +CASE RECORD
INDIA WENT OVER +100,000 CASES FOR THE 9th TIME IN 10 DAYS
+185,248 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 153,082 = 106.3 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
7-DAY ROLLING +CASE AVERAGE 10 DAYS AFTER CRACKING +100,000 PARALLELS THE USA (2020-11)
+1,026 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 844 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
FOR THE 1ST TIME SINCE 2020-10-002 (6 MONTHS), INDIA SUFFERED MORE THAN +1,000 DAILY DEATHS
​

BRAZIL:
֍*** 13,601,566 ***֍
+80,157 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 70,787 = 49.2 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly falling
+3,687 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 3,051 = 2.1 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
The positivity rate in Brazil is a ridiculous 47.56%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 111 consecutive days
​

FRANCE:
***** 5,106,329 *****
+39,113 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 37,860 = 26.3 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+345 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 315 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
FRANCE IS NOW -520 UNDER 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS, WILL BE 8th NATION TO REACH THIS MARK
​

 

Would like to add a general thought: we ended the year 2020 with the world approaching 84 million total confirmed C-19 cases (83,800,241).

Not today, but rather, tomorrow, 2021-04-015, we are certain to to go over 139,000,000 cases and assuming that we "only" keep a rate of +700,000 cases a day (right now, the 7-day rolling average is +713,090), then the world will add another 10,500,000 cases by months end, so my money is betting that the world will likely be over 150,000,000 total cases at the end of April 2021, meaning that we will have advanced at least +66 million C-19 cases in the first 4 months this year.

It took the world five months, from 2020-07-031 through the end of that year to advance 66 million cases, from 17,745,673 cases on 2021-07-031 to the 83,800,821 I already mentioned above.

So, it should be apparent to everyone that if this wave does not abate, we are all but guaranteed to have well over 200 millon documented, confirmed C19 cases worldwide before the end of this year, likely closer to 250 million.

The bad news is that 250 million is nowhere close to herd-immunity. And even if we assume that 5 times more people have been infected than officially reported, then that could bring the *unofficial* total to 1.25 billion, which is still nowhere near herd-immunity. This means that by the end of this year, we really need to vaccinate at least 5 BILLION people worldwide in order to have a fair chance at stomping this disease into the ground, at least for this year.

This also means that the mentality of "well, my nation is close to herd immunity, what do I care what happens elsewhere" won't help, because the vaccinations only provide protection for a certain period of time and then there will have to either be booster shots or a whole new round of vaccinations and if we don't get the entire adult population of the world vaccinated before it's time to vaccinate again, then there will be an almost insurmountable backlog, which will invariably result in yet more waves of infections, and so the vicious cycle can repeat itself.

The only way to truly kill this thing off is to vaccinate the entire world 3 or 4 years in a row, continue masking up and washing hands for a good, long time, but definitely reopen the world's economy and get back to daily life. This coronavirus will likely be with us permanently or morph into something even weirder, but we could get the world total down to less than +50 infections per day, which would essentially mean that the thing is dead.

This misery is surely not going to be gone at the end of 2021, precisely because it is a Coronavirus. So, we are looking at a game of strategema here, to see how effectively we can keep more people from getting infected and/or dying and at the same time, crank the economy back up again. Here I am speaking in worldwide terms and not just thinking of the USA alone.

Plus, it will take years to sort out the after-effects from a diverse cast and crew of vaccines, to see if there are some adverse side-effects. And there has never been a vaccine in the past that did not have at least some adverse side-effects for at least a very small part of the vaccinated population.

So, take a deep breath - we are really in this for the long haul.

-Stat

 

TURKEY EXCEEDS 4,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES, 7-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE IS ALMOST +56,000 PER DAY​

Today, 2021-04-014, Turkey went past 4 million total C19 infections, but the critical thing to note is how quickly Turkey went from 3 million to 4 million:



It took Turkey until December 10th, 2020 to get over the first million, then 2 million in February, then 3 million in later March and then, 3 weeks later, 4 million.
Turkey is now easily among the top 5 nations across the world in daily plus cases: India, USA, Brazil, Turkey, France.

Note that since 2021-03-028, both the average daily cases and the average daily deaths has doubled, in less than three weeks time.

-Stat

 

The posting above is from one week ago, as India had just cracked +125,000 fresh infections.

Today, 2021-04-014, India is currently at +199,531 new C19 cases, just a stone's throw from +200,000. That number will likely change again before EOD in WorldOMeter's time-zone (UTC +0).

Just 11 days ago, India went over +100,000 for the first time.

So, the second to the last sentence from the posting above, which I have now bolded, really does appear to have some strong predictive value.

Within 2 weeks, I may very well be reporting that India is at or over +300,000 cases, and this may hold for a while.

This is exactly the horror-scenario I had been hoping against hope would not happen in India, but here we are....

 

Yep, agree totally.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03, 2021-04,
ONE YEAR LOOKBACK TO 2020-04-014

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Wednesday, 2021-04-014
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 41 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and four of the 41 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis:

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍******** 138,821,290 ********֍֍֍Ώ
THE WORLD SET A NEW +CASE RECORD ON THIS DAY
+814,224 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 735,088 = 510.5 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+13,633 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 12,085 = 8.4 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
INDIA: +100,000 DAILY CASES FOR THE 10th TIME IN 11 DAYS / SET A +200,000 DAILY CASE RECORD
INDIA ALSO EXCEEDED 14 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
TURKEY EXCEEDED 4,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
FRANCE IS ON THE CUSP OF 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS, WILL BE 8th NATION TO REACH THIS MARK
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZIL'S C-19 SUM OF TOTAL TESTS PERFORMED HAS NOT BUDGED IN 112 DAYS
BOLIVIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED ON THIS DAY, 96th NATION TO DO SO

​

The first screenshot of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 41 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for the month in question (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍** 32,149,223 **֍֍֍
+78,439 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 73,140 = 50.8 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+913 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 749 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE IN US DEATHS STAYED BELOW +1,000 ON THIS DAY
DELAWARE IS ON THE CUSP OF 100,000 TOTAL C19 CASES, WILL BE 47th UNIT TO REACH THAT MARKER
​

​

INDIA:
֍**** 14,070,890 ****֍
INDIA EXCEEDED 14 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY, GOT THERE IN 6 DAYS
INDIA WENT OVER +100,000 CASES FOR THE 10th TIME IN 11 DAYS
AT JUST UNDER +200,000 DAILY CASES ON THIS DAY, INDIA SET A NEW INTERNAL +CASE RECORD
+199,569 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 163,547 = 113.6 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
7-DAY ROLLING +CASE AVERAGE 11 DAYS AFTER CRACKING +100,000 PARALLELS THE USA (2020-11)
+1,037 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 894 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

​

BRAZIL:
֍*** 13,677,654 ***֍
+75,998 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 68,648 = 47.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+3,462 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 3,012 = 2.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
The positivity rate in Brazil is a ridiculous 47.82%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 112 consecutive days
​

FRANCE:
***** 5,149,834 *****
+43,505 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 44,075 = 30.6 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+297 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 294 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
FRANCE IS ON THE CUSP OF 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS, WILL BE 8th NATION TO REACH THIS MARK
​

 

Gawd! India.

 

Today, India blew well past +200,000 new cases, currently, just under +217,000.

For (verifiable) historical context: when the USA first started it's streak of at least +100,000 new cases per day on 2020-11-03, it took 17 days for the USA to hit the +200,000 mark, on 2020-11-020, and then again on 2020-11-027 and then the continuous +200,000 streak started on 2020-12-002 and went until 2021-01-016. Now in that time, not every single day saw +200,000 cases, but the majority of them were indeed +200,000 (or considerably more).

India started it's +100,000 streak on 2021-04-004, it took 12 days to get to the +200,000 mark, so India got there 5 days earlier then the USA in their respective Covid-19 histories. Now remains to be seen if India will stay in the +200,000 zone for a long time, or not.

One thing is for sure: this is absolutely going to result in a huge number of Covid-19 deaths in our world's second most populous nation.

 

Today, as projected, France went over 100,000 total confirmed C19 deaths, making it the 8th nation to do so, after the USA, Brazil, Mexico, India, the UK, Italy and Russia:



But there was also a change in the bookkeeping for France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden and a couple of other nations that I am not tracking on a daily basis. The calculations for recovered/still active cases was changed, and here is why:



This is why in the screenshot for France and also the screenshots below, you see columns J, K, L and M for today and yesterday highlighted in yellow, so that you can see what a drastic difference this change in reporting makes.

Here the other nations I am tracking that also had these calculation changes today:







At the very onset to this thread, in March 2020, I indicated that this metric (recovered/still ill) would probably be a messy metric since all nations to not calculated these numbers in the same way and as we can see, indeed this metric can be "messy".

-Stat

 

You're absolutely right, unfortunately!

Despite this gloomy picture, there are still many, many people who are reluctant to do their part in trying to, at least, slow down the spread of the virus by adopting the so simple and easy measures as wearing a mask and adopt social distancing.
Many are so dumb that they consider these measures as relinquishing their sooo fundamental liberty or even their sooo precious manhood!

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03, 2021-04,
ONE YEAR LOOKBACK TO 2020-04-015 - on this day one year ago, the world had just exceeded 2,000,000 total confirmed C19 cases...

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Thursday, 2021-04-015
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 41 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and four of the 41 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis:

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍********* 139,667,209 *********֍֍֍Ώ
OUR WORLD WILL EXCEED 140 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2021-04-016
THE WORLD SET A NEW +CASE RECORD ON THIS DAY, FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW
+845,919 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 737,545 = 512.2 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+13,942 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 12,088 = 8.4 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

INDIA BROKE WELL OVER +200,000 NEW CASES ON THIS DAY, SETTING A NEW INTERNAL RECORD

THERE WERE RECOVERED/ACTIVE CALCULATION METHOD CHANGES FOR FRANCE, BENELUX & OTHERS

FRANCE EXCEEDED 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY, 8th NATION TO DO SO
BANGLADESH EXCEEDED 10,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY, 38th NATION TO DO SO
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZIL'S C-19 SUM OF TOTAL TESTS PERFORMED HAS NOT BUDGED IN 113 DAYS
PARAGUAY EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED ON THIS DAY, 97th NATION TO DO SO
​

The first screenshot of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 41 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
Today, a screenshot of the total deaths (France, Bangladesh) have also been published here.
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for the month in question (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍** 32,224,139 **֍֍֍
+74,916 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 72,391 = 50.3 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+901 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 734 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE IN US DEATHS STAYED BELOW +1,000 FOR THE 3rd DAY IN A ROW
TEXAS IS NEARING 50,000 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS
DELAWARE WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100,000 TOTAL C19 CASES TODAY, 2021-04-016
​

​

INDIA:
֍**** 14,287,740 ****֍
INDIA WENT OVER +100,000 CASES FOR THE 11th TIME IN 12 DAYS
AT WELL OVER +200,000 DAILY CASES ON THIS DAY, INDIA AGAIN SET A NEW INTERNAL +CASE RECORD
+216,850 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 175,684 = 122 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+1,183 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 949 = 0.7 deaths every minute, tendency: rising

​

BRAZIL:
֍*** 13,758,093 ***֍
+80,529 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 67,396 = 46.8 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+3,774 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 2,952 = 2.1 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
The positivity rate in Brazil is a ridiculous 48.11%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 113 consecutive days
- I will stop mentioning this when Brazil hits a 50% positivity rate -
​

FRANCE:
***** 5,187,879 *****
+38,045 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 35,517 = 24.7 new cases every minute, tendency: starkly falling
+296 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 287 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
THERE WERE RECOVERED/ACTIVE CALCULATION METHOD CHANGES FOR FRANCE, BENELUX & OTHERS
FRANCE EXCEEDED 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY, 8th NATION TO DO SO
​

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03, 2021-04,
ONE YEAR LOOKBACK TO 2020-04-016

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Friday, 2021-04-016
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 41 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and four of the 41 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis:



WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍֍ 140,504,994 ֍֍֍֍Ώ
OUR WORLD EXCEEDED 140 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
OUR WORLD EXCEEDED 3 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+837,785 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 745,018 = 517.4 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+12,639 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 11,974 = 8.3 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
INDIA NEARED +234,000 NEW CASES ON THIS DAY, SETTING A NEW INTERNAL RECORD
WITHOUT A DOUBT, INDIA AND BRAZIL ARE THE TWO WORST HOTSPOTS IN THE WORLD AT CURRENT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZIL'S C-19 SUM OF TOTAL TESTS PERFORMED HAS NOT BUDGED IN 114 DAYS
ARGENTINA EXCEEDED 10,000,000 TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED ON THIS DAY, 33rd NATION TO DO SO
​

It took the world 15 days to jump 10,000,000 cases, from 130 to 140 million but it you take the longer view, it also took the world 35 days to jump 20 million cases, from 120 to 140 million. If you look at the monthly calculation for the end of March, 2021, you will see that the world jump almost 14.8 million cases, so we are way above where we were in March 2021 and by the end of 2021, I suspect that this month will set a new monthly +cases record.



The first screenshot of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 41 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for the month in question (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍** 32,305,912 **֍֍֍
+81,773 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 71,877 = 49.9 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly falling
+949 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 729 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE IN US DEATHS STAYED BELOW +1,000 FOR THE 4th DAY IN A ROW
TEXAS IS NEARING 50,000 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS
DELAWARE EXCEEDED 100,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
​

INDIA:
֍**** 14,521,683 ****֍
INDIA WENT OVER +100,000 CASES FOR THE 12th TIME IN 13 DAYS
AT ALMOST +234,000 DAILY CASES ON THIS DAY, INDIA AGAIN SET A NEW INTERNAL +CASE RECORD
+233,943 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 188,414 = 130.8 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+1,338 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,029 = 0.7 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
INDIA'S 7-DAY ROLLING DAILY DEATH AVG WENT OVER +1,000 FOR THE 1st TIME SINCE 2020-10-002

​

BRAZIL:
֍*** 13,383,342 ***֍
+76,249 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 65,561 = 45.6 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly falling
+3,070 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 2,870 = 2.1 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
The positivity rate in Brazil is a ridiculous 48.37%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 114 consecutive days
- I will stop mentioning this when Brazil hits a 50% positivity rate -
​

FRANCE:
***** 5,224,321 *****
+36,442 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 34,831 = 24.2 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly falling
+331 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 287 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

​

 

That is another staggering number given that this only became a global PANDEMIC just over a year ago and we are still at LEAST another YEAR, possibly TWO years BEFORE this is brought under control.

It is entirely possible that the final death toll could reach double digits in the millions and what is disturbing is that America has just under 20% of those deaths to date. When this all began I made an average ESTIMATE of 975,000 deaths based on CDC data and it saddens me to note that at 580,000 we are already at 60% of that number.

http://politicalforum.com/index.php...-regular-flu-mortality-doing-the-math.569272/

The TREND is going the wrong way and it is worthwhile comparing the charts from the 1918 pandemic and where we are now.




And if we take a look at the New Cases...



The start of the next UPWARD trend is there and deaths are always a LAGGING result.

Now is NOT the time to relax just because we have vaccines.

We are NOT at herd immunity AND the virus is MUTATING which could negate the effectiveness of the vaccines.

Please continue to take all reasonable sanitation and social distancing precautions.

 

Today, 2021-04-017, India has clocked in at just under +261,000 (+260,778) new Covid-19 cases.
India achieved this just 13 days after recording it's first day over +100,000 cases.

To contrast, it took the USA 49 days to get from the first time it cracked +100,000 (+103,530 on 2020-10-030) to +260,00 (+261,283 on 2020-12-018 ).

So, we now have irrefutable mathematical proof that the wave in India is coming far faster and is also decidedly more steeply upward than the wave in the USA was in November/December/January.

At this rate, India will soon be clocking in at +400,000 per day as if that is somehow normal.

-Stat

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03, 2021-04,
ONE YEAR LOOKBACK TO 2020-04-017

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Saturday, 2021-04-017
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 41 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and four of the 41 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis:


WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍֍* 141,286,124 *֍֍֍֍Ώ
+781,130 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 755,965 = 525 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+11,792 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 12,031 = 8.4 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising
INDIA NEARED +261,000 NEW CASES ON THIS DAY, SETTING A NEW INTERNAL RECORD
INDIA'S ASCENT TO +260,000 CASES WENT CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE USA'S ASCENT IN 2020
WITHOUT A DOUBT, INDIA AND BRAZIL ARE CURRENTLY THE TWO WORST HOTSPOTS IN THE WORLD
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZIL'S C-19 SUM OF TOTAL TESTS PERFORMED HAS NOT BUDGED IN 115 DAYS
​

The first screenshot of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 41 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for the month in question (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍** 32,361,278 **֍֍֍
+55,366 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 70,185 = 48.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+814 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 738 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE IN US DEATHS STAYED BELOW +1,000 FOR THE 5th DAY IN A ROW
TEXAS IS NEARING 50,000 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS

​

INDIA:
֍**** 14,782,461 ****֍
INDIA WENT OVER +100,000 CASES FOR THE 13th TIME IN 14 DAYS
AT ALMOST +261,00 DAILY CASES ON THIS DAY, INDIA AGAIN SET A NEW INTERNAL +CASE RECORD
+260,778 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 203,857 = 141.6 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+1,495 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,123 = 0.8 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
INDIA'S 7-DAY ROLLING DAILY DEATH AVG STAYED OVER +1,000

​

BRAZIL:
֍*** 13,900,134 ***֍
+65,792 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 65,018 = 45.7 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly falling
+2,865 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 2,917 = 2.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
The positivity rate in Brazil is a ridiculous 48.60%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 115 consecutive days
- I will stop mentioning this when Brazil hits a 50% positivity rate -
​

FRANCE:
***** 5,260,182 *****
+35,861 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 33,771 = 23.5 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+189 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 284 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

​

 

Those trends are FRIGHTENING!

https://indianexpress.com/article/i...delhi-weekend-curfew-oxygen-shortage-7277259/

Delhi is the second largest city in the world with a population of 30 million people.

If they LOCKDOWN that city the IMPACT will be felt GLOBALLY because a great deal of TECHNICAL support for the INTERNET is based in cities like Delhi. While the internet itself is robust enough to continue the internet SERVICES that are provided by the CITIZENS are what could decline.

Unlike here in America not all Indian programmers and call center staff have internet connections in their residences. If they are not able to reach their workplaces they won't be able to work from home during a lockdown.

Delhi is just one city out of many in India that function in this manner.

The trend we are seeing could have an impact on global trade that relies upon the internet.

The alternative is for the Indian government to NOT go into lockdown in order to ensure that there is no impact on global trade however the loss of life would be on a scale I do not even want to contemplate.

If India does NOT go into lockdown then the bordering nations like China and Pakistan will risk being caught up in this WAVE of infections.

You have no idea how it makes me feel to be typing this post. The suffering is going to be unprecedented and I wish that I could prevent it but all I can do is provide my own perspective on where this trend is headed.

PLEASE redouble your efforts to remain safe.

 

THE "900,000 CLUB"​

Currently, there are 4 nations between 900,000 and 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases:

Iraq - 970,897
Belgium - 943,213
Phillippines - 926,052
Sweden - 900,138

The next nation in the rankings, Israel, is far below 900,000 (836,882), so once the four above nations spring over the 1,000,000 mark in the next 17 days, it is going to be while before more nations enter the "900,000 club".

2 of the four nations (Iraq, Belgium) are among the original 28 nations nations that I have been tracking for a long while. The other two nations (Phillippines, Sweden) were added recently when I increased the tracking from 28 to 41 nations. These four nations are set to become the 25th, 26th, 27th and 28th nations to cross over the 1,000,000 case mark, respectively. This also means that two nations (Israel, Portugal) that were already in the original 28 nation tracking have fallen behind. They are an example for the world to follow. Those two nations have kept their daily +case-loads way under +1,000 for a good while now. They are heading where we want the entire world to head.

I screenshotted the four nations in question and then calulated, based on their current 7-day rolling average, when they will cross over the 1,000,000 line.



Iraq, currently at 970,987 cases, is 29,013 away from the million mark and is averaging +7,547 cases per day. 29,013 / 7,547 = 3.8 days time until Iraq jumps over the 1,000,000 line, so the projection is for Wednesday, 2021-04-021.





Phillipines, currently at 926,052 cases, is 73,948 away from the million mark and is averaging +10,406 cases per day. 79,948 / 10,406 = 7.1 days time until the Phillippines jumps over the 1,000,000 line, so the projection is for Sunday, 2021-04-025.





Belgium, currently at 943,213 cases, is 56,786 away from the million mark and is averaging +3,614 cases per day. 56,786 / 3,614 = 15.7 days time until Belgium jumps over the 1,000,000 line, so the projection is for Monday, 2021-05-003.



Sweden, currently at 900,138 cases, is 99,865 away from the million mark and is averaging +6,105 cases per day. 99,685 / 6,105 = 16.4 days time until Sweden jumps over the 1,000,000 line, so the projection is for Tuesday, 2021-05-004.

These projections are based on the end totals from yesterday, 2021-04-017 and of course, the 7 day rolling averages can change, but Iraq is so far ahead and averaged at least +7,500 for 6 of the last 7 days, which means that the 7-day rolling average is barely going to budge unless Iraq drops off to zero cases, which is of course not going to happen. Likewise, the Phillippines was at an average of at least +10,200 cases for the last 6 days, also for 12 of the last 15 days and you can see that this is more than double where the Phillippines was just one month before, in 2021-03-018, so my money is on Iraq becoming the 25th nation to reach the 1,000,000 marker and the Phillippines being the 26th.

As for Belgium and Sweden, that's a different case. Sweden's reporting is very, very inconsistent and more often than not, Sweden reports nothing for up to 4 days, usually stretching over the weekends, as you can see from looking at the screenshot. Meanwhile, Belgium appears to have it's own little private "Battle of the Bulge" (WWII enthusiasts, eat your hearts out) because one month before, in 2021-03-018, Belgium's rolling average was almost identical to where it was yesterday, it rose above +4,000 and seems to have now settled between+3,600 and +3,700. Therefore, it's entirely possible that Sweden takes off like a rocket this week and lands well in front of Belgium in terms of crossing the 1,000,000-Rubicon, so the order of those two is harder to say with guaranteed accuracy. What I can say with 100% accuracy is that Belgium and Sweden will be the next two nations after Iraq and the Phillippines to enter the million club and it will likely happen at the beginning of May, 2021.

Just to make this picture rounder and better to understand, at the beginning of May, 2020, one year ago, only one nation in our world had crossed the 1,000,000-line, namely, the USA. And now we are pretty much guaranteed that we will be at 28 such nations one year later.

Scary.

-Stat

PS: BTW, what you are reading here today is part of the reasoning for why I expanded my tracking from 28 to 41 a number of weeks ago, seeing a huge amount of leapfrogging going on under those top 28. Similarly, I am starting to cast my eyes on the next 9 or 10 nations in the ranking and will likely include them by June or July of this year because I am not quite sure that by the end of 2021, at least 50 nations will have more than 1,000,000 total confirmed cases a piece and both the USA and India will be between 40-50 million apiece. It's actually very simple math.

 

I had a jarring experience the other day when I reported that the US state of Delaware went over 100,000 total confirmed C19 cases. Delaware has less than 1,000,000 residents (about 974,000). Now, Delaware is not the first state that is small in population to go over 100,000: both South and North Dakota went over that mark a while back, but geographically, those are quite large states in terms of landmass, in fact, they are the 16th and 17th largest states in the USA by landmass. They are simply sparsely populated.

Delaware is now the 2nd "small" state in the Union that is not only small in population but also in terms of landmass that has gone over the 100,000-mark: it is the 49th largest state out of the 50 in the Union by landmass, just ahead of Rhode Island.

And then I thought of how immense China is by landmass and even larger by population. So, I looked at a superimposition map of the two countries:



Look how tiny both Delaware and Rhode Island (also, together) are in relation to China and yet, both of them have more COVID-19 cases than all of China, supposedly:

Rhode Island (USA): 144,149
Delaware (USA): Delaware 100,777
New Hampshire (USA): 91,279 - next in line to cross over the 100,000-mark
CHINA: 90,483

I mean, that is simply perverse and an insult to everyone's intelligence for China, a nation of 1,400,000,000 people (1.4 BILLION) to tell the world it has less total C19 cases than tiny little Delaware or Rhode Island or New Hampshire.

China has been lying to the world all along, probably about a number of things.

But seeing Delaware go in to six-digits in total cases reawakened this thought within me.

Hell, worldwide, nations that most people don't even know exist, like Montenegro (population 500,000), Kyrgyzstan or Gambia all have more cases than China.

It's simply perverse.

-Stat

 

Germany to hold memorial service for its 80,000 Covid-19 pandemic victims - DFA

Today, Sunday, 2021-04-018, in Germany, a national day of mourning and rememberance is currently in event for the 80,000 who have died from COVID-19 in that country. At all federal buildings throughout Germany, the German flag is at half-mast in honor of this day.

About four hours ago, inside a historic church in Berlin, a memorial service was held, where Kanzlerin Merkel, the President of Germany, Steinmeier, the leader of the Bundestag, Bundesrat and also the head of the German Supreme Court were in attendance. 5 "normal" everyday citizens were there and they told their stories of how their loved-one died. One was a lady from Bavaria whose husband was the head of a medical clinic, one was a lady whose turkish papa died in Hamburg, one was a young lady whose father had a pig-farm and a restaurant, only he didn't die from Covid-19, but rather, from Leukemia, but since Covid-19 restrictions apply to all hospitals in Germany, the family could not visit with him as he was dying, etc etc.

Each of the 5 placed a candle in a center circle and for each of them, one Representative of the German Government also placed a candle in the circle.

Musically, there was an orchestra, but also the German Radio Choir performed per Video- uplink. There were 2 movements from the Brahms "German" Requiem and also Samuel Barber's Adagio for Strings as a flood of pictures of people who had died flashed across the four or 5 video screens positioned in the church.

Chancellor Merkel (CDU) did not speak, but rather, the President of Germany, Walther Steinmeier (SPD). The position of President of the Bundesrepublik is a rather ceremonial role and one in which the person selected essentially gives up his party and represents all of the nation. Steinmeier's speech was.... wow... riveting. And honest, brutally honest.

Here is a video of the Memorial service:



It's in German, but still, you may get a good feeling for how solemn the occasion was, also how excellent German videography is these days.

I was moved by this event. Germany has, until now, not had a national day of mourning for the losses from Covid-19, but today, it happened.

-Stat

 

“You can fool some of the people...”
China must think the rest of the world is naive if they want us to believe that.

 

Today, India has thus far clocked in at +275,306 fresh C19 infections and +1,625 deaths.
So, 14 days after recording +100,000 new cases for the first time in it's COVID-19 history, India is already at +275,000.

 

It would be interesting to know what is really going on in China, because even though their numbers seem unbelievable they have been open now for a year while we still struggle.

 

There’s an interesting TV program tonight, in Oz, which is looking at that same question. An investigation by the BBC .

 

If you watch give me a tag with the scoop.