Where is the GOP headed?

Discussion in 'Budget & Taxes' started by WillReadmore, Aug 18, 2016.

  1. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Regardless of this election, the Trump candidacy is stirring the GOP party in a major way.

    So, where is the GOP headed?

    Right now, they seem to be owned by Trump and the Tea Party. But, that collection sees winning numbers only among certain specific demographics - white people, those over 45 (and white) and those without college education.

    I just don't see that as a winning combination. And, it has been called out as a problem by the RNC for a few presidential election cycles now.

    So, one has to ask how the GOP is going to reformulate itself.

    What changes in principles will the GOP make? What changes will be made in order to attract a broader demographic?

    The analysts at Nate Silver's 538 point to three criteria that are the distinguishing characteristics of the party today:
    http://i2.wp.com/espnfivethirtyeigh...ackup-1.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=2048&ssl=1
     
  2. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Donor

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    Today there is the faction within the GOP that is avid Trump supporters, roughly 40%. There is the avid anti-Trump or Never-Trump group, around 20% and those in-between who so far are supporting Trump in his bid against Clinton. If on looks at the 20%, most of them are/were lifelong Republicans, most are conservatives, the only faction Trump lost in the primaries, he lost them to Cruz. They are the ones who started the never-Trump movement. Conservatives also has been labeled by Trump supporters as the next or new RINO’s. Trump is a populist to his supporters or most of them, not a conservative.

    http://thefederalist.com/2016/08/14/conservatives-are-the-new-rinos/

    Assuming Trump loses in November, there will be a fight between Trump supporters vs. the conservatives and the old traditional Republican values for lack of a better word, establishment. If the old Republican guard wins, they know they have to go after the Hispanic vote to remain a viable presidential/national party. But if they win, there is a good chance a lot of Trump supporters will leave, but probably have nowhere else to go as they sure won’t become Democrats.

    Then there are the conservatives if the Trump group wins control of the GOP. Some have left the party already and several have tried to come up with a candidate to run as an independent against both Trump and Clinton. If Trump and his people remain in charge, I look for them to either start another political party which believes in conservative values or possibly join or start supporting the Libertarian Party. Any way you look at it, the Republican will shrink at least in the short term.

    There is the possibility the Republican Party will become the congressional party while the Democratic Party the presidential one.
     
  3. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I think it would be a huge change for them to try to go after Hispanic voters while maintaining the bedrock social principles that form the glue for the party today. Remember that Trump actually succeeded while calling those coming from Mexico criminals.

    While that population might actually have a significant "conservative" component, it's not likely to be attracted by the attitude of key components of the GOP today.


    I was especially surprised at the chart on the far right, showing that non-Hispanic whites have become more and more educated while the education level of the GOP non-Hispanic whites stagnated 20 years ago!!

    That is a major league divide! It's no wonder it's so hard to get education improvements (including funding) passed. And, it's no wonder that the GOP tends to deny evidence from science in so many areas.

    I wonder if the GOP might start trying to attract wage earners more strongly - one current catch being that Trump is exceptionally uninterested in their concerns.

    If successful, that would be a change that would affect Dems in a way that could be serious.
     
  4. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I think you are wrong.

    See? Part of the divide on the right! The #nevertrumpers are mostly the establishment/Acela corridor types. There are a few purely ideological conservatives among them, but they don't matter because they probably didn't vote for Romney or McCain either for lack of conservative credentials. As far as the Tea Party goes, it's a non factor since it's dead. It really believed in the fiscal conservatism that the establishment Republicans pretended to believe in, and when the Tea Party challenged the establishment, they were crushed.

    RIP Tea Party.

    So you have an ideological breakdown like this:

    Pro Trump: America First: want tough border control and no amnesty; immigration restriction, and trade to benefit the country.

    Anti Trump: America...maybe not last but not first. Open border, pro Amnesty and in favor of multilateral trade deals that get rid of jobs (that's a feature, not a bug).

    So the Republican Party is going to split, particularly if Trump loses. True ideological conservatives who are only going to vote for a conservative will probably end up abandoning the party. If the Establishment faction wins, the Republican Party will be a tiny rump party, with maybe 20% of the electorate and the Trumpers will probably go back to not voting and abandoning party politics. If the Trumpists win, the party will also be a tiny rump party, but slightly larger, maybe 30% of the electorate and the Establishment will head for the Democrats.

    In a way that would benefit the Democrats since it would be a return of a moderate wing to the Democratic Party as your Bill Kristol types return home and try to talk down the Democrats from their far left Berniesm.

    Anyway this is just a guess.
     
  5. slackercruster

    slackercruster Banned

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    Dunno...the dems and the USA love legalized dope, homosexuals, abortion, illegal aliens and atheism...everything the reps hate. The reps beliefs are no longer popular. Trump will probably run agin in '20. I don't know when the reps will regain control.
     
  6. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Donor

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    It's possible. But I wonder if this divide would be there if it were a Rubio or Kasich running in place of Trump. I think Trump is the lightening rod. That Trump is the reason for the divided Republican Party. I may be giving him more credit than he deserves. He is one divisive individual even within the GOP itself.
     
  7. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Donor

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    Interesting. Whether you're right or I am, about the conservatives anyway. I am more of a traditional conservative, in the Goldwater mode, not a neo or social conservative by any means. I am as much anti-Trump as I am anti-Clinton. You're right about one thing, in 2012 I didn't vote for Romney either. I voted for Johnson and will do so again this year.

    Which ever way the Republican Party goes, it will be smaller. I think 30% is way too big, at the present according to Gallup anyway, it stands at 27%. But that doesn't count independents lean Republican which goes up and down like a yo yo. A lot of folks like to count independent leans as part of the party base, they aren't. I was talking the Republican Party base.
     
  8. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Regain control? They control the US legislature, the SC, and the majority of governors and state legislatures.

    Their problem is inside their own party.
     
  9. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    He is one divisive character for sure. But, Boehner and Ryan have failed to unite the party, and Rubio and Kasich didn't, either. So i am not ready to heap it all on Trump.

    I think it is a large and real problem not just with elected ofgicials, but with the voters who are divided along the lines of age, education, and a rampant xenophobia that extends even to rejection of citizens who aren't white.
     

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