No President has won by more than 10% since President Ronald Reagan. Not George H.W., not Clinton, George W., or Obama. This YouGov Poll has Biden up by 11%. Republicans will say the polls are wrong. Republicans might be right. What should trouble democrats is the oversampling. Just as in 2016, this gives people a false sense of security. Why bother going to vote for CROOKED HILLARY? She is going to win. The news is telling me she's way ahead. Same for CREEPY CROOKED UNCLE JOE. Just look at these internals and see if you see something wrong: The first internal that should alarm you is the male/female ratio of poll responders. 55% are women, 45% are men. The second one shows those who voted in the primaries. While it could be true that Republicans may have sat out the primary the primaries because Trump ran unopposed, undersampling them for the general election is a big mistake. That ratio of Democrats to Republicans in this poll is 60/40. Plus, independents are only 17% of poll respondents. This poll is so wildly skewed is should never even be published let alone used as an indicator in the average of polls. So when President Donald Trump says these are voter suppression, push polls or FAKE polls, he's right again.
I read an article today where they gave Biden a 17 point lead in Wisconsin and a 7 point lead in Michigan. If one were to look at the ballots already turned in by party they would see that the Democrats are trailing Republicans by 6 points in Wisconsin. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/wisconsin-results They are also trailing Republican early ballots by 2 points in Michigan. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results Now that doesn't tell us who the ballots are for but it's a pretty good indicator that those polls are as wrong as they were last year. They (the supposed experts) keep telling us that the Democrats are the ones that will vote early. That must mean that the Republicans still have a lot of voters that still haven't cast a ballot. Another fantasy that we hear a lot about is turning Texas blue. The Democrats are so far behind in early ballots turned in that they wouldn't win if all the independent votes were for Biden. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results The reason not to trust most of the polls.
Relax all, Trump wins in a landslide. I was talking to a friend today and asked if he was going to vote and he said NO, he didn't believe his vote mattered; too late for him to register to vote now. I told him that I think my vote matters because if it didn't, Trump would have never been elected in the first place. Trump has divine intervention on his side, I believe.
And that's not happening. Polls don't try to sample Democrats. If more people say they're Democrats, it's because more people in the random sample have started identifying as Democrats, which spells disaster for Republicans. The opposite is true. People want to vote for a winner. They'll come out more if the polls for their side are good. That's why the Republicans commission so many fake polls, so their supporters don't lose hope. The Democrats have no need to pay for fake polls. Anways, we'll see after the election. This thread won't age well. I mean, COVID exploding, the stock market crashing, and so much Republican fraud being exposed, and Trump failing at the debates, it's all crumbling down around Trump. This isn't close. Biden is whupping Trump.
You obviously have no freaking idea how polls work or you are blowing smoke up our ass. Here is a little primer. Study up so you don't look so misinformed next time. The Good & Bad of Weighting the Data http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/39
So you are telling me they purposefully gave women a 10% edge? When has that ever happened in any election?
Republicans don't think they're going to lose, and many Democrats don't think they're gong to win. Republicans are doing good in a state like Florida and Texas, as we keep seeing those in-person early votes improve for them. I'm in Broward County. The simple fact is that the Democrats have no ground game in Broward or Miami-Dade, and polls taken October 27, 28, and 29 suggest that 45-50% of Democrats in the state have not cast their mail-in vote despite intending to do so. Democrats don't have those University voters, and may not have the numbers on election day cause of Covid fears. My sister and her GF are liberals in West Palm that haven't even left the house to vote cause CNN Covid Coverage was thoroughly scary enough to make them hid in like Biden, and my gay Cuban friend did vote for Trump in Ft Lauderdale. White men along I-4 are pretty much the only hope for Democrats at this point, and you guys owe it to old, rich white guys like Biden, Bloomberg, Bernie, Gates, and even the Neocons in the Bush-McCain-Romney faction. An ABC/Washington Post D+ 17 Wisconsin poll by a data and analyst company that fabricate numbers in Wisconsin does what exactly? First off, it's a fake poll, and Democrats have had more Wall Street, Corporate and foreign money to make nonsense polls. It just scares more Republicans and Independent learners into voting for Trump. Republicans are only down 40-37 to Democrats in Wisconsin, and Trump is only down 9 among all early voters nationally. YouGov has them down by around 14 points, which is nonsense. It ain't based on anything cause their polling method is merely preference and theory. The only thing this poll provides Democrats is the fact that they are coming up short with early and mail-in votes, so they are going to need to rally people. Republicans are gong to have 2-1 margins on election cause those rural areas haven't even voted. Some of their polling stations aren't even open cause populations are like 10-50 thousand in a particular county.
Exactly. The YouGov Poll is a Non-Probabilistic poll without a comprehensive sampling frame for its method of sampling and surveying: Internet Panels and E-mail. There's no way to draw out a national sample for which everyone has a chance to be selected in a given election, unless you poll hundreds of thousands with the assumption that you will miss people that do not have the internet or don't want to conduct a survey via online panel cause they have a job and better things to do. It's called a cooperation bias. In general, samples with more elaborate sampling and weighting procedures and longer field periods produced more accurate results. This was a cheap, 1,500-person poll of a favorable base of Democrat/lean voters in the South and Midwest areas where they have a +14 point advantage cause of their proximity to Starbucks and good ethnic foods. This poll doesn't tell us what margin Democrats are going to win, but it does tell us that Democrats need to get their damn mail-in ballots to the post office immediately before they get slammed on election day. https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2016/05/02/evaluating-online-nonprobability-surveys/
I think polling is pretty much a waste of time in this election. People are hiding their preferences and opinions. I don't think a pollster can get a straight answer from a lot of conservative voters in this atmosphere. I also think that some pollsters are more about making a statement rather than being accurate.
good luck with that, Trump will be a one term looser of a President Trump was a fluke in 2016 and the voters will correct that in 2020
I will put this as simply as I can. Democrats are fabricating public support so when they get trashed on election night it provides them a "stole the election again" narrative from which they believe they can undermine the second Trump administration. When the polls all conclude that Biden had more support and still lost, it will be viewed as voter fraud, or election tampering, or whatever other externality they can dream up. Almost 60& of folks feel they are better off today than 4 years ago. Including the covid story. Creepy joe isn't going to put a dent in that.
Meanwhile, back in reality ... here are the current swing state/district poll aggregates, according to _The Economist_ . "+" means a Biden lead. The number in parenthesis is Biden's EV total if he takes all the states above it. (I had to space out some end parens, because the board displays 8 ) as .) Needless to say, Biden is doing better than CLinton in most of those states. And that's after the corrections from 2016 were made, to weight the non-college white males more. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president +8.0 Michigan (248 ) +8.0 Wisconsin (258 ) +6.5 Nebraska-01 (259) +6.2 Pennsylvania (279) +3.2 Florida (308 ) +3.0 Arizona (319) +3.0 Maine-02 (320) +2.4 North Carolina (335) +0.6 Georgia (351) +0.2 Iowa (357) -1.4 Ohio -2.2 Texas
The didn't weight up the non-college educated white males. What they did was weight down college-educated vs. non-college educated because to move non-college educated up, it would have skewed white and therefore requiring them to reweight every demographic category.
Just like 2016. The Des Moines Register just released a poll showing Trump up 7%, I believe. You really think Biden will win FL? I don't and am not aware of a president who won while losing both FL and OH.
I'm so sick of polls. They've been using em to try to wag the dog for so long they don't even know how to try to use them as a predictive indicator anymore. They're all junk.
