Why are Trump's approval numbers up?

Trump won in 2016 and will win again in 2020.

Live with it!

 

The only poll that matters is the one we take next November.

One thing is clear... not many people have been swayed by the impeachment process thus far.

 

Not many?

I'd say none.

 

Fair enough..

 

Way to address anything I said friend.

As for your psychic prognosis, we shall see — 11 months away.

 

Polls are Polls but, the fact that Trumps approval rating is not below 40% in any of the polls should tell you something .. namely - that "Stormygate" - Russiagate and Ukrainegate have not harmed Trump - and in all likelihood helped him.

Trump has stumbled around mightily over the last few years - but few seem to notice as the various "gates" suck up all the oxygen.

GDP is under 1% - despite fiscal policy that would make Reagan blush (massive deficit spending injection into the economy)
Manufacturing is in the tank - now for 4 months.

Trump is being laughed at on the world stage - China Trade war is causing real harm to our economy.

The worst however is the Iran sanctions - not the sanctions themselves but trying to force every other nation in the world to comply by using the so called "nuclear option" - threatening to bar a nations banks and/or corporations out of the international system of payments should they violate Trumps unilateral sanctions. This is doing a large amount of damage to our short and long term economic security.

 

Dudess. There are 429 in mine from the same 538.



If they were random they would be talking with 2 year olds. That's where methodology comes in.
It's also the place where biases are born.

Rasmussen is only average.

 

Weren't you the one that was just claiming Rasmussen as best because they called 2016 at 2% in favor of Clinton?

 

Nate Silver gave Trump less than a 29% chance of winning in 2016. I wouldn't use fivethirtyeight as the gospel to prove anything. Rasmussen had Clinton winning the popular vote by 2% in 2016. That was pretty accurate. I doubt any statistical analysis does a great job in the midterms. I'm thinking there's more than simply statistics in those years.

Most left wing polls are designed to sway public opinion, not measure it. They do it by injecting sampling error to favor progressive candidates or progressive ideas. Everything to progressives is about outcomes with little consideration for how those outcomes were achieved.

 

The RCP average of all of the major polls doesn't show any significant change.

 

This is not the same as the 538 2018 master polling data, because the columns and the rows are not remotely similar. You're using a different dataset, yet somehow, you're claiming that it is the same as the 2018 dataset.

Pretty deceptive tactic for a Never Trumper.

What do you think happens when a pollster reaches a 2 year old on a telephone? Do you honestly believe that the questionnaire still continues?

You've gone from stating that Rasmussen is "mediocre" to now "only average;" you've also gone from claiming to be using 2018 dataset, except your dataset is complete different. I only wish my body was able to achieve the mental gymnastics that your mind is capable of.

 

No...

 

Shouldn't they be going down with all this 24/7 anti-Trump impeachment inquisition crap?

It looks like the left's attempt to diminish Trump isn't working.

 

This is not how probability and statistics is supposed to work. Probability is merely the likelihood that a random event will happen; it doesn't profess to say that something will happen or should happen.

Nate Silver also never claimed to be the gospel, nor did he ever say that he has a crystal ball. The purpose of predictive analytics is to reduce uncertainty, but it doesn't tell you the future.

 

Let's put it this way. The poster claimed that Rasmussen was biased, then posts a Nate Silver authored analysis. Yes. The same Nate Silver who's tied in with ABC, the most biased outfit to delude themselves that they are part of the "press" as opposed to the marketing arm for the Democrat Party and graduates of the Pelosi school on smear merchandising.

 

Rasmussen has Trump's approval rating up to 52% today. His highest rating since his 53% rating back in September, when the impeachment process first began.

 

Besides, Rasmussen predicted the 2016 Election winner so they are more accurate than most.

 

It's not my fault you have a bad dataset.

No. I don't believe it continues. And the moment that happens it is no longer random.
Have you never taken a poll. Never answered are you registered? Are you going to vote?
Hardly random.

Your getting pretty nit picky in your old age.
Mediocre, average middling. Take your choice.
Synonyms for mediocre
Synonyms

• common,
• fair,
• indifferent,
• medium,
• middling,
• ordinary,
• passable,
• run-of-the-mill,
• run-of-the-mine
• (or run-of-mine),
• second-class,
• second-rate,
• so-so

 

And also the MSM is at war with Trump. When one flips on the TV and all they see, even from the Comedians, is this red faced bawling Trump hate, it does have a temporary impact. Thus the Democrats manage to stoke the fire of impeachment daily. Trump's tweets are holding him up though.

 

Yes... Clearly these statements are the same...

 

No, but it is your fault for not understanding how to analysis data.

You don't know what the word random means, do you?

Average and Mediocre have different connotations, statistically speaking. If you've ever taken statistics, you'd know this.

 

I don't know if Nate ever said Rasmussen was bias, as this is difficult to prove bias. What Nate does, on the other hand, is note that certain pollsters, specifically tend to overestimate performance of politicians that are aligned with certain political parties, as all pollsters do.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

Definition of random
(Entry 1 of 3)

: a haphazard course
at random
: without definite aim, direction, rule, or method subjects chosen at random

I think we are done here.

 

As soon as ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC come into the picture, smear merchandising as taught by Pelosi is also part of the picture. Being affiliated with one of Pelosi's degreed smear merchants does not add to Nate Silver's credibility.

 

Random Sampling Methods

https://towardsdatascience.com/sampling-techniques-a4e34111d808

https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/...a-epidemiology/methods-of-sampling-population

Done? You never even started. You're not qualified to be discussing this topic with me...