With Shale Oil Production Like This, Who Needs Trump?

great news, look like " the second coming of shale " will kill all states - gas stations , Muscovy, Algeria, Nigeria, etc. how long does it take?

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-26/with-shale-oil-production-like-this-who-needs-trump

 

So much for peak oil

 

Hm. I wonder how that may affect our economy in general.

 

"Hm. I wonder how that may affect our economy in general. " you (Muscovy) are not a country but a gas- station, not my words ...."Nigeria with snow", i am ok with this, but how the hack you can plan to take over the world or at least Europe....

 

Why are you concerned anyway? Don't you live in Sharia Capital?

 

Much of that new production is just waste; in west Texas alone billions of cubic feet of natural gas is just being burned off, enough to power several cities for entire years. Saudi Arabia and other producers hoped to kill off shale oil production, and lowered their prices in an effort to do that, so they can sell off their declining reserves in 10 years or so at a big profit. that didn't work, but we still continue the over-production, which is not good at all. It does help put a dent in Russian income, and is expanding European and Asian movements to imported LPG, creating a demand for new ships and the like, but little of that benefits the U.S. as a country, just a few producers, those with shallow enough reserves to make it still profitable to over-produce to an extent. In the long run, though, it just leads to further depletion of our own reserves, when we should be keeping as much of ours in the ground as possible and burn up everybody else's, especially at today's prices. The current waste only benefits a few at this point, and is a very bad long term strategy, being traded for a very modest short term gain for a few.

 

Depends on how well Moscow manages the Russian economy. It has reduced prices and therefore revenues, and made opening up new sources economically viable for at least a portion of what Euros now buy from Russia, for a few points. This shouldn't surprise anybody. The same thing roughly happened during the oil shocks of the 1970's, only with prices in reverse and the Soviet Union being a major importer of refined petroleum products, coupled with a global food shortage for a few years helping out as well as propping up North Viet Nam and other satellite states; this played a big role in the bankruptcy of the state and the failure of the Brezhnev Doctrine Soviets had to face in 1973 and the subsequent collapse in the early 1980's.

If Russia doesn't start up a massive anti-corruption drive, and soon, its situation is indeed dire. So should the U.S. for that matter; it is also facing serious problems coming to a head. Not good for global stability if two such hegemonic powers start failing at nearly the same time, not good at all.

 

What if we assume, that after oil prices drop, USA will switch to some new power source? I am not sure, how much is that possible, but if we assume it is - do you think that may explain the things you described?
If I have not misunderstood you, the current excavation of oil in USA does more harm, than good?

But, things a little different in the way, that population has very little trust to national currency, and relies more on foreign ones. May that lead to rise of minor enterprise, maybe? Not that many people have opportunities for that, but then again - we are nearly at rock bottom in matters of economy, from what I see in day to day life. If people will have open opportunities to work with foreigners - without much involvements from state and corporations - maybe that would actually lead to busines blooming? There sure is no shortage of educated, experienced people, ineterested in work there.

 

you know that Muscovy has waged cruel war on eastern europe for years? we also want to live , like you guys peacefully, friends with all neighbors ...once ulus of juchi (self named rossia) goes down , we will get it

 

Yes, new power sources are being developed, but it's a long way off before they are significant replacements for energy production, even solar, which is now near cost effectiveness; it creates its own future shortages of certain necessary materials, rare earths, available only in a few places, mostly Red China and the western U.S. The U.S. mines have been essentially shut down, which is a good thing for the same reasons I've stated for shale gas production above. We can use up China's supplies for the time being and do okay.

Definitely; massive waste of any natural resource is always bad from a long term strategic view, and not just for oil and for the U.S. the short term gains are easily wiped out by later by a mere few months of shortages.

Yes, but for some modern industries the barriers to entry shut out most 'little guys' from entering and competing effectively, so there will have be some large companies and duopolies and monopolies, no way around it for anybody, not Just Russians.

Well, that's why the anti-corruption drives are important; none of that can happen without that, at least for long. It can be done. Mexico and Singapore were at roughly the same place some 60 years ago economically and on the corruption index. Singapore launched their anti-corruption campaigns about that time, while Mexico sunk deeper into corruption and became just a narco-state. The difference in results and outcomes is vast, and tiny Singapore with virtually no natural resources outperforms resource rich Mexico all across the board. The same drives can work in Russia and the U.S.

 

It won't because fracking is expensive. I read that Saudi Arabia won't let oil go above $60 so as to destroy the American fracking industry... and at $60 Russia will be fine as long as the Ruble is low. It managed even at $40. The only thing that will hurt others is if the US drops down the value of the dollar ...which who knows, Donald Trump might do it ...or at least he will say it to scare the wits out of China. I'm only joking, I really don't know that much.

 

I've not heard you speak much peace about your neighbours. More of a constant daily belligerence. No one is going to fight your wars for you.

 

zhana its simply a lie, made in TV.ru by Kiselev

here is the reality:

not reuters , but your Muscovite government said it ...

 

So Much Winning!

 

in case of Ukraine all what we need its weapons, when it comes to Baltics , its NATO, even sovok has never attacked NATO, never

 

I think Putin has started that drive, but horrors for the globalists who used it for their anti Putin propaganda, the corrupt he's getting rid of are the ones favoring the west with one world liberal agenda. Anyway this what I gathered from what I read, but I don't go deeply into things, so I might be wrong.

 

Estonia is an apartheid nation and belongs to the paranoid block, so I wouldn't trust much of what they say.

 

One of their sovereign funds, but not the other one. But everything is relative, and when you compare to the US with its trillions of dollars in debt ..... WOW!

 

The existential realities for countries like Estonia is far different than it is for larger states Russia deals with; they treat the smaller weaker states with utter contempt. Nobody can blame them for their belligerence toward the Russian state, though it may not be the brightest strategy, true enough.

 

Doesn't mean there will never be a first time; depends on who ends up in control if Russia's current state were to disintegrate politically; it's not automatic that in such cases better ones take over; see Germany after the collapse of the Weimar Republic, for instance.

 

Why would Russia want to take over the world, it has enough problems developing what it has now? Their major problem is trying to protect it from a covetous and greedy west. I should add to that a foolish west, because they're all going to be annihilated.

 

My first thought too. But peak oil, just like open borders free trade globalization was a robber baron scheme, and they will come up with new ones. It is how they operate.

There were people who said long ago peak oil was a lie, a scheme, and they were called tin foil hat boys. For all of the experts KNEW the truth, just like all of the experts today know the truth about AGA, and worked hard to help sell this scheme. The reason it is a scheme, is because given the dangers, not one gov't has addressed co2 with land management. No sir, only carbon taxes, billions of bucks would work. A steady flow of money into the hands of the schemers.

So when will people finally understand why and who runs these schemes, with the help of gov't? It is the same class of people who implodes our economy, wages perpetual war for perpetual peace, and tried to run a coup on FDR. It is the upper 1/10th of one percenters. They own our politicians, and use the average American as cannon fodder, enriching these elites even more. When will people wake up? Seriously, I doubt enough ever will. They are too easily manipulated, and just too stupid, which the elites bank on. Right now, the trump haters are doing exactly what these sociopaths at the top want them to do. Which makes a trump hater a chump, and there is no way around it. And chumps stay chumps, , that is the beauty of it, as seen from the top.

 

The shale oil boom would be impossible under Obama (or Hillary) as they both catter to the lefty credo "fosil" fuel is evil. With a new attitude under Trump there's less concern over warming alarmism and the potential harm possible to whatever endangered species. This, liberalized oil exporting rules, the pipelines and less restrictions on fracking or those Canadian tar sands are all the consequence of Trump's approach.

The markets are ruled by supply and demand, when oil was selling at $100/barrel fracking became feasibly profitable, production began and OPEC opted to curtail sales so prices would drop and fracking would become unprofitable. Frackers improved their technique, reduced costs and could still profit at lower prices, so OPEC continued to reduce production and frackers continued pursuit of lower costs. With oil at $50, fracking is too expensive, but as OPEC reduces outputs and excess stock is consumed, the price inevitably rises making shale oil profitable. At this point it is obvious that whenever oil rises above $50, frackers can spur production and undercut OPEC's markets.

The US pioneered and leads in fracking technology, inevitably others will eventually get in on the process and shale oil is available around the world, so the idea the world is forever beholden to petrostates blessed with vast reserves is over. In fact major conventional oil producers are anticipating a time when their reserves are gone, both Norway and Saudi Arabia are moving oil dollars into sovereign wealth funds, Iran is exploring fracking itself, Britain is already producing oil by fracking.

One hopes lefty ecofreaks don't all suffer aneurisms, all their "clean" energy projects, from windmills and biomass to solar panels and tidal turbines now all seem too costly.

 

With shale oil production raving up the market price of crude I think will still hover within 60-70 US dollars per barrel.
But will Trump also have to bring home jobs for Caltex, ExxonMobil, Chevron et al?, as know there distribution and marketing are global.

 

I don't see how one can "bring home" (to the US) jobs at oil companies with global operations. Oil companies have to operate where there is oil, the jobs they have at operations overseas cannot be rendered elsewhere.

I've read shale oil can be profitably extracted at about $55/barrel, with the investments in place, shale oil can be brought online easily as soon as demand raises the price to a profitable level. For governments like Russia's, which depend a lot on oil exports this will be a problem if they budget based on too optimistic forecasts of oil prices (as Putín has).