Romney Takes Lead in Ohio as Obama Campaign Panics

You should note that ALL of the polls he cites are from more than a week ago. Romney erased those leads just before the hurricane stopped polling.

 

Again, that's just not true. The NBC poll is from 10/31-11/1.

Are you confused or just making stuff up?

 

Because they are liberals and can't take the blinders off. They work at Mini Tru.

 

liberals like it up the ass. That's a given.

 

How about all the others?

 

I can help you with that...

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney. He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.

www.realclearpolitics.com/.../polling_data_early_voting_point_to_ro...

 

I dont know. I havent checked them all. Have you?

 

Says the guy posting flat out lies....

 

Even if he doesn't there are so many other different combinations for victory, Ohio would not matter...

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney. He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.

www.realclearpolitics.com/.../polling_data_early_voting_point_to_ro...

 

Obama dominated early voting in 2008, building up such big leads in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina that he won each state despite losing the Election Day vote, according to voting data compiled by The Associated Press.

Ohio Voters are gonna vote Romney in come Tuesday.

 

Obama dominated early voting in 2008, building up such big leads in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina that he won each state despite losing the Election Day vote, according to voting data compiled by The Associated Press.

Ohio Voters are gonna vote Romney in come Tuesday.

 

Rasmussen has Ohio tied today 11/4/2012 but it also has independents going to
Romney by 9 pts. Factor that in and they are predicting a Romney win.

Factor in the enthusiasm of Romney voters and it is looking good!

 

I'm sorry, we are

 

Went to the Romney rally today in yardley, pa. It was so awesome...numbers say 28,000...but there were so many people on the outskirts of the farm that did not go through security so they were not counted...there were many more than the 28,000 being reported. It was so uplifting, and so inspiring....I bet he takes Pennsylvania as well.

 

In what reality are you living in?

 

Every poll in the last week, except Rasmussen, shows Obama well ahead in Ohio. It's not a contest there.

Same with Pennsylvania. It teases the Republicans every year, they wine and dine her, but she never puts out. All the polls show Obama up there. Except one outlier that showed a tie. And again, all the Republicans cherrypick that single outlier as proof of the glorious victory coming their way. Same thing happening in Michigan.

Repeat after me. "The polls are right." He who searches for reasons to declare why the polls have to be wrong almost always ends up looking very silly. I say this as a Democrat who has in the past searched for reasons to declare why the polls couldn't be right.

 

Even the pollsters themselves are saying there are problems with accuracy this year. Two main reasons. I find it funny that the Obamaites were saying how they dont believe the polls are accurate when Romney went on his surge and polls were showing him ahead.

Problem 1. They say they are going to have to change their methodology to keep up with the societal changes, namely that now, 1 in 3 households no longer have a landline.
2. They are using numbers from 2008 to calculate who to call, and its overloaded with Dems. The only way it will be accurate is if the enthusiasm for Obuma is the same as last time, which it aint.
Too many are dissappointed, but simply wont vote repub either, so they will just stay home. Many millions of moderates
.
thought Obuma would govern more closely to the middle and they wont vote for him either. The entusiasm in the other groups just wont be there either, its the "been there, done that syndrome."

Historically, a majority of undecideds go with the challenger. Its the "how will your marriage be in a year from now?" If a spouse says, "I dont know yet", means the marriage is deeply in trouble. Mods, undecideds will both break for ROmney.

 

Whats that, 1 out of 10? hahahhah

 

The list is in black and white, right in front of you, the answer is obvious

 

And then he sites an NBC White house news poll, RLMAO.... I am citing a Real Clear Politics polling article...NBC always misleads, the owner of MSNBC is obama's job's czar, do you see a conflict there....Sorry to burst your bubble....

 

Translation: I really have no facts nor logic to rebut the numbers and thought based on them you have presented. Will an empty drive-by do?

 

That silly poll has already been debunked, too. They oversampled Democrats by EIGHT PERCENT.

 

I wasn't.

True. But since study after study has found that people who use cell phones exclusively are much more likely to lean Democratic, that's a factor that suggests the polls are undercounting Democrats, not overcounting them.

This point is simply false. It's been debunked many times on this forum and in the press. Most pollsters don't weight for party ID -- they simply ask people, as part of the poll, whether they're Democrats or Republicans. Those pollsters that *do* weight for party ID usually use something more robust than "last cycle's turnout" -- for instance, a separate monthly poll of party identification, or actual voter registration data.

So you've just made a compelling argument that Obama's margin should be *bigger* than what the polls show.

See my rules of polls: the side that says "our superior enthusiasm and turnout will overcome our standing in the polls" is losing.

Boy, you're pulling out *all* the debunked chestnuts. The data on this is sparse, but there's really nothing there to suggest that undecideds break toward the challenger in any major way. Each cycle can be different, of course, but on averagethe challenger has only a slight advantage.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/


What do we see here? For the most part, the incumbent-party and challenging candidates get a higher share of the vote than they do in the polls, which simply reflects the fact that some number of undecided voter will migrate into their camps.

Perhaps more important, both candidates gain about the same amount of ground relative to the polls. On average since 1968, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate gained 3.5 points between the September polls and his actual performance on Election Day, while the challenger gained 3.9 points.


So Romney might eke out a win thanks to undecideds if he's trailing by 0.4% or less. There is no important swing state where that's the case.

 

The pollster I was responding to singled out the NBC poll, saying it was old and used a registered-voter model.

I simply pointed out he was wrong on all counts.

As for the rest of the polls, I didn't check them out. I'm willing to bet, however, that they were all current and all used likely-voter models. If you've got evidence to the contrary, I'll look at it.

 

Most of them were still old.